Strasburg Watch

[MisterCrash]

Put an offer on the table at ~7m and he signs. Boras is brilliant; he's also not a braindead. He won't turn down that kind of coin. The question is in the game of chicken do the Nats swerve. Personally I hope not as giving in to Boras demands makes things worse for the rest of baseball going forward.

Ha! Okay dude. I'm sure the Nats will be really successful by hugely lowballing the most visible #1 in a decade. The Nationals need Strasburg in a way Strasburg does not need the Nationals. An offer of $7 million is about one third of what most feel he deserves as a draftee and one fourth to one fifth of what most feel he would earn on the open market. If Washington honestly offers him that, Boras will laugh in their face, Strasburg will pitch a year in the independent leagues (a la Aaron Crow) and then come back and get signed for $25 million by whoever drafts him next year.

To put your offer in perspective, Mark Prior, around a decade ago, singed for just over $10 million. And you think an offer of $7 million will get it done?

[geschinger]

Ha! Okay dude. I'm sure the Nats will be really successful by hugely lowballing the most visible #1 in a decade. The Nationals need Strasburg in a way Strasburg does not need the Nationals. An offer of $7 million is about one third of what most feel he deserves as a draftee and one fourth to one fifth of what most feel he would earn on the open market. If Washington honestly offers him that, Boras will laugh in their face, Strasburg will pitch a year in the independent leagues (a la Aaron Crow) and then come back and get signed for $25 million by whoever drafts him next year.

To put your offer in perspective, Mark Prior, around a decade ago, singed for just over $10 million. And you think an offer of $7 million will get it done?

Prior is a case study in take the money. In the risk/reward equation turning down that kind of money --and-- putting yourself a year further away from free agency --and-- putting yourself at risk of getting injured and hurting your draft stock makes would make it an insanely stupid decision to turn it down. Not to mention that he gets drafted again and is a year older and has not increased his leverage.

Boras is brilliant - by far the best at what he does but I have never gotten the impression that he is stupid.

[MisterCrash]

Prior is a case study in take the money. In the risk/reward equation turning down that kind of money --and-- putting yourself a year further away from free agency --and-- putting yourself at risk of getting injured and hurting your draft stock makes would make it an insanely stupid decision to turn it down. Not to mention that he gets drafted again and is a year older and has not increased his leverage.

Boras is brilliant - by far the best at what he does but I have never gotten the impression that he is stupid.

Suggesting he should take $7 million from the Nationals is...stupid. I'm not trying to make personal attacks here but your comments have no basis in reality and will never play themselves out. There is a 0% chance that the Nationals offer $7 and say "take it or leave it", and if they did there is a 0% chance Boras/Strasburg would accept.

If Prior had turned down the $10 from Chicago, he would have spent a year off and then been received something like $20 from New York, Boston, or LA. This isn't football - spending a year away from the game, or spending a year playing against lesser competition isn't a big deal. Not to mention, Aaron Crow barely pitched in the Independent leagues - and that's what Strasburg would do.

[MisterCrash]

There's also the whole "pride" thing. Never mind that $7 million is much less than he could earn on the open market, and well less than he deserves as a draftee. The Nationals would be completley disrespecting him and lowballing him. I honestly understated how much of a lowball offer it was before - he wouldn't make four to five times as much as a free agent, he'd make ten times as much as a free agent. If Strasburg were a FA, Boras would sit across from Theo Epstein or Brian Cashman and say "Daisuke Matsuzaka got a $50 million contract as a 26-year-old rookie. I have a 21-year-old rookie who throws 100 MPH and has a better curveball than anyone on your staff. I want 100 million dollars." And the Yankees or Red Sox would pay it, because he's worth it. And you think Strasburg/Boras would be "stupid" if they didn't take a slap-in-the-face offer of $7 million?

[wickedwitch]

The Nats have already offered $10 million according to some source. But it doesn't matter because *points to new signature.*

[zff4]

hahaha Boras equates not paying his demands with injuring young boys and their families. Anti youth, anti family and anti American!

"Major League teams, in the best interest of baseball, must stop penalizing American boys and American families," Boras said. "The fact of being born in the United States should not result in a dramatic diminution of value, even though your talent exceeds that of a talent born elsewhere."

[geschinger]

Suggesting he should take $7 million from the Nationals is...stupid. I'm not trying to make personal attacks here but your comments have no basis in reality and will never play themselves out. There is a 0% chance that the Nationals offer $7 and say "take it or leave it", and if they did there is a 0% chance Boras/Strasburg would accept.

If Prior had turned down the $10 from Chicago, he would have spent a year off and then been received something like $20 from New York, Boston, or LA. This isn't football - spending a year away from the game, or spending a year playing against lesser competition isn't a big deal. Not to mention, Aaron Crow barely pitched in the Independent leagues - and that's what Strasburg would do.

Crow will be interesting. Let's see if he gets anywhere near the $9m he demanded last year. I've heard it estimated that the time Varitek sat out after he was drafted has cost him well over $10m due to his FA clock starting later than it otherwise would have. Matthew Harrington turned down $4m and ended up changing tires at a Costco instead of playing professional baseball. We should all be familar with the sad case of Townsend who legitimately had a reason not to sign and ended up hurting himself trying to impress scouts prior to the next year's draft and was never the same.

The way Boras approaches the negotiations is brilliant as it gets people to buy into it. Put a number into the stratosphere and then compromise down just a little bit and make teams think they are getting a deal. The problem is it hasn't quite worked out as well in recent years with guys like Wieters getting nowhere near the Teix type money Boras wanted. So this year he takes a different approach and instead of trying to value his player at $10-$15 me throws out $50 and DiceK and what does he accomplish? He's got the public and fans believing that a team like the Nats should go ahead and give him $20-$25m or about 350-400% more than David Price got. It is truly ridiculous how well it seems to be working.

[geschinger]

The Nats have already offered $10 million according to some source. But it doesn't matter because *points to new signature.*

If true the Nats are making a mistake but at least they need not do anything more except wait for Boras to agree at 11:59 to sign him if they have the courage to wait it out without blinking.

[MisterCrash]

I don't know what to tell you dude. It's not like no one has ever played hardball with Boras before - his clients do not sign if you completely lowball them. What you're saying has no basis in reality.

[zff4]

WASHINGTON -- Nationals president Stan Kasten acknowledged Saturday there is a "very real possibility" the team will not reach an agreement with No. 1 overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg despite offering him a record-breaking contract.

"With 48 hours to go, I simply have no idea whether we're going to be able to reach a deal," Kasten said in an interview with The Associated Press.

(There is a) "very real possibility, with 48 hours to go, that Stephen may choose not to sign with us. We remain hopeful. But ... all of baseball history, both long-standing and our own recent history with Jordan Zimmermann, has cautioned us about the risks inherent in signing any young player, particularly pitchers."

[mwmd80]

The Nationals will end up getting Strasburg signed. The deal is likely to be in the range of a 13-15 million signing bonus and a ML contract worth the roughly the same amount.

[JimPalmerJr]

Should the Nats ( or the O's for that matter ) put all their eggs in signing one draft pick for $ 15 million or 15 guys like Coffey / Olhman / Bundy , etc. ?

[zff4]

Should the Nats ( or the O's for that matter ) put all their eggs in signing one draft pick for $ 15 million or 15 guys like Coffey / Olhman / Bundy , etc. ?

If a guy like Strasburg, properly scouted, is judged to be essentially MLB ready with little minor league prep, and judged to be a top of the rotation guy, then you've got a starter under your control for some odd years for a bargain. Look at him as a free agent (is what Boras is arguing) - what would you pay a top of the rotation FA?

On the other hand, what does Ryan Zimmerman say? "I've seen him on TV once or twice. He throws hard. He's got good stuff. But again, you have to ask yourself: How much money can you make without ever throwing a pitch?"

It all boils down to scouting. You value him and pay him what you think he's worth to the organization. But you don't pay more. What's his value? He hasn't thrown an MLB pitch, as Zimmerman said. What do you pay a rookie? If he's top of the rotation now, you pay him a lot.

[baltfan]

If a guy like Strasburg, properly scouted, is judged to be essentially MLB ready with little minor league prep, and judged to be a top of the rotation guy, then you've got a starter under your control for some odd years for a bargain. Look at him as a free agent (is what Boras is arguing) - what would you pay a top of the rotation FA?

On the other hand, what does Ryan Zimmerman say? "I've seen him on TV once or twice. He throws hard. He's got good stuff. But again, you have to ask yourself: How much money can you make without ever throwing a pitch?"

It all boils down to scouting. You value him and pay him what you think he's worth to the organization. But you don't pay more. What's his value? He hasn't thrown an MLB pitch, as Zimmerman said. What do you pay a rookie? If he's top of the rotation now, you pay him a lot.

I live here in D.C. and I don't sense a ton of pressure on the Nationals to sign this guy. Then again, I don't sense a ton of interest in the Nationals or pressure on them to do anything.

[zff4]

Roch reported that the Nats offered $17.

Anonymous sources tell the Post it's not enough.