Jump to content

Chris Tillman: To trade or not to trade?

JTrea81

By JTrea81
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

Posted
Posted

I keep hearing Tillman is close to untouchable by many posters, but IMO this guy should be very expendable, especially for talent like a Miguel Cabrera for example.

Just look at his stats last year. 65 IP, 15 HR.

That translates over 200 IP to 46 HR given up.

Fangraphs did an article on him awhile back:

One of the concerns I had about Tillman when he was coming up through the lower minors with Seattle was how often he pitched up in the strike zone with his fastball. It helped him rack up a good amount of strikeouts, but also spelled danger for his future home run rates when he started facing guys strong enough to put those pitches in the seats. Through his first two starts in the majors, he’s quickly learning that big league hitters like high fastballs

....

Now, he’s not going to keep giving up home runs on 19% of his flyballs, but there’s little doubt that Tillman’s style of pitching is going to make him an extreme flyball pitcher, and home runs are always going to be an issue for him. As he matures, he’s going to have to spot his fastball down in the zone with some more frequency – it will cost him a bit off his strikeout rate, but the reduction in balls in the air will be worth it.

OPACY is not condusive to HR prone flyball pitchers so Tillman is unlikely to reach his ceiling and more likely to be a 3rd or 4th starter IMO. If he tries to alter his pitching style to give up strikeouts for GBs, it could hurt him making him less effective than he is now.

Another team that has a park that wouldn't hurt Tillman as much such as Detroit, I think would still view Tillman very highly and I think he could reach that TOR ceiling if more of his flyballs stayed in the park. And in turn the Orioles could get their middle of the order hitter that they don't have in the organization and so desperately need, using Tillman as the primary chip of the deal.

On the other hand, if we keep Tillman, and he does become a RH version of Bruce Chen, his trade value will plummet. He could be a servicable 3rd or 4th starter for us, but given the hype he has now, it would be a severe disappointment compared to what we could have possibly traded him for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 151
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Hooded Viper Major Leaguer

Hooded Viper

Posted
Posted
I don't disagree that his FB tendancies are troubling...However, he is still very young and you can't just assume that won't get corrected soon.

This, for the love of God, this. I mean Trea, the kid is 22 years old and has a huge upside and I know you already have him as a bust but maybe, just maybe, he could learn and grow. Oh and by the way, MacPhail loves him. He held up the Jones/Bedard deal specifically to get him. He isn't going anywhere!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hooded Viper Major Leaguer

Hooded Viper

Posted
Posted
Yes we need to trade him...for MCab...we can't just keep waiting like we did with Lowen, DCab, Penn, Biggbie, Gibbons ect

So lets trade him while he has value, and we still have Arrieta, Britton, Erbe, Lebron, Johnson, Patton, ect.

What in the hell are you comparing these guys to Tillman for? Why give up a talented 22 year old player who shows the potential to be a top 2 rotation guy? Have you ever heard of a kid getting better? This is just nuts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

Posted
  • Author
Posted
What in the hell are you comparing these guys to Tillman for? Why give up a talented 22 year old player who shows the potential to be a top 2 rotation guy? Have you ever heard of a kid getting better? This is just nuts.

Two words, Hayden Penn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
andrewrickli Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

andrewrickli

Posted
Posted
What in the hell are you comparing these guys to Tillman for? Why give up a talented 22 year old player who shows the potential to be a top 2 rotation guy? Have you ever heard of a kid getting better? This is just nuts.

Yeah Penn dominated at AA, ans stong success in AAA just like Tillman, did he pan out?

I'm not sying that Tillman is a bad chip or anything but sometimes you have to do things that you don't like.

Im syre BoSox didn't like giving up Hanley Ramirez did they?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
This, for the love of God, this. I mean Trea, the kid is 22 years old and has a huge upside and I know you already have him as a bust but maybe, just maybe, he could learn and grow. Oh and by the way, MacPhail loves him. He held up the Jones/Bedard deal specifically to get him. He isn't going anywhere!!

Well, this doesn;t mean anything in this discussion...Its not will he get traded...Its should he get traded.

There is some merit to trading him.

Personally, I don't want to see him go but that doesn't mean I wouldn't move him in the right deal.

One thing that so many people pointed out in wanting to get rid of Olson and Penn was that they gave up a lot of homers in their short time here....People are letting some biases get in the way here and not really looking at things...They see Tillman being the second guy in the Bedard deal and just assuming the best...and that's wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Personally, I don't want to see him go but that doesn't mean I wouldn't move him in the right deal.

And this is the key. Nobody is talking for trading Tillman for mediocre players, rather for established star players that will make the Orioles better and help them be competitive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...