Padres asking price for Adrian Gonzalez

[Robbie]

If Buchholz is better than Tillman it isn't by that much. Tillman is a top 10-15 prospect right? Matusz might be the best pitching prospect in the game. If he is not then he is up there, I would have to rate Matusz higher than Feliz if only by a tick. The Orioles would not have to give up more than Tillman if they added Erbe, Pie, and maybe a guy like Snyder. I know we would have to give him a monster contract, but we would be able to offer that contract two years before he hit free agency. If he hits free agency the Red Sox could just sign the guy.

If the Orioles tried to obtain a guy like Votto, Alonzo, or Blanks the package is going to have to start with Tillman or Arrieta IMO and at this point I would rather have Arrieta. Tillman is a guy that I rate lower than Matusz, Britton, and Arrieta, but I am not scout.

Buchholz was the number four prospect in baseball in 2008 and is expected to be the ace of a staff. He has electric stuff. He has a decent amount more value than Tillman. And Strasburg is the best pitching prospect in the game. Kelly is also a top prospect also and has ace upside.

If that's the cost, I think the Orioles have to kick the tires on it. The only other possibility would be to wait for Fielder to become a FA next year. That might be a better route, but I have no idea if AM will go after him.

Fielder will not be a free agent untill the 2012 season. The same year as A-Gon.

[RShack]

I doubt the extension would be part of any deal. You either want him and worry about the extension later or you don't want him.

Right. And the answer depends on how far down the road your eyes are focused. For those worrying about the short term, they do. For those looking at the mid-term and long-term, I'm guessing most probably don't.

This is like driving a car in the sense that, if you don't wanna have wrecks, then you focus your eyes on the road farther down the road, not just right in front of you...

How often do you see extensions in place as part of a trade? Answer. Almost never. Maybe never.

For an extension that doesn't kick in until that far out in the future, I'm betting the correct answer is "never ever ever, not even once, since the beginning of time"...

[Bradysburns]

I hope you don't think the Padres are only asking for 2 players for AGon....That's 2 guys they are asking for from Boston are going to be the "headliners"...It is going to take a 4-5 player deal.

Buchholz has proven himself moreso in the majors, so he is ahead of Tillman...Buchholz was rated very highly as well.

If it's going to take Erbe, Pie, Tillman AND two "upper 2nd tier" guys like Caleb Joseph, Snyder, Arrieta, Britton, etc., I would have to say no.

If it's just Erbe, Pie and Tillman (plus some low 2nd-tier guys like Patton, Aubrey), I would say yes... but contingent on signing him to an extension for an additional 3-4 years (total contract, say, 6 years, $102.)

That's $17 million per season. But the thing is, he only makes about $5 million for each of the next two seasons under the current Padres contract, so he'd made an additional $12 million a year for those two seasons... or, if you just subtract the $10 million for those two years from the $102... you're looking at $92 million for the remaining four years... $23 million a year for those years. I think you might be able to get him to take that in this market environment... and he'd only be 32-33 by the end of the contract.

Or is that just wishful thinking??

[Sports Guy]

If it's going to take Erbe, Pie, Tillman AND two "upper 2nd tier" guys like Caleb Joseph, Snyder, Arrieta, Britton, etc., I would have to say no.

If it's just Erbe, Pie and Tillman (plus some low 2nd-tier guys like Patton, Aubrey), I would say yes... but contingent on signing him to an extension for an additional 3-4 years (total contract, say, 6 years, $102.)

That's $17 million per season. But the thing is, he only makes about $5 million for each of the next two seasons under the current Padres contract, so he'd made an additional $12 million a year for those two seasons... or, if you just subtract the $10 million for those two years from the $102... you're looking at $92 million for the remaining four years... $23 million a year for those years. I think you might be able to get him to take that in this market environment... and he'd only be 32-33 by the end of the contract.

Or is that just wishful thinking??

Zero chance that trade offer and extension get it done.

[JTrea81]

Forget the aspect of what it would take to acquire Gonzalez for a moment....Answer these 2 questions:

1) Would you trade for AGon WITHOUT an extension?

2) Whats the most you would give him in an extension?

1. It depends on what I am giving up. If the Padres only want two blue chippers, I'd probably do it without an extension. However if they want 3 or more, an extension would be required.

2. I'd give him 8/160 ripping up the last two years of his deal.

[weams]

We. Need. Pitchers.

I realize that we need a big bat as well, but if the deal involves trading away half of our top four pitchers, then I'm not down.

TINSTAAPP

There is an old saying in advertising that "I know half my advertising dollars are wasted - I just don't know which half!"

Resolved. Half of our current young pitchers will become Hayden Penn, Matt Riley and Adam Loewen.

We have no idea which half. We do not have the luxury of trading YOUNG pitching yet.

Guthrie is the only guy we can deal.

[El Gordo]

Forget the aspect of what it would take to acquire Gonzalez for a moment....Answer these 2 questions:

1) Would you trade for AGon WITHOUT an extension?

2) Whats the most you would give him in an extension?

The article indicated that AGonz wanted to be traded to Boston because he wants to win. What is the likelyhood he would even consider an extension. You can't give up all that for 2 years of anyone.

[MrOrange82]

I just don't think giving up much of anyone for two years of AGon would be worth it. For one thing, I'm skeptical (like a bunch of other posters) that he'd sign an extension b/f the Orioles prove that they can win with him. For another, last year was the first year he's managed a .900+ OPS for an entire season, and he's a career .281 hitter. We're not talking about Albert Pujols here...or even Mark Teixeira, for that matter (and Tex has only ever had one season where his OPS was below .900).

AGon strikes me, prospectively, as a John Lackey-type player: very good/solid all-around, but probably going to wind up being vastly overpaid by a team that lacks better options at the time his contract is signed.

[JTrea81]

There's a keep away part of this too that's too big to ignore. Boston covets Gonzalez and they do not have the power prospects in the minors to fill that 1B position.

By trading for Gonzalez, you keep him away from a division rival and force them to pay huge $ for Fielder or Howard or trade for a player that isn't quite as good.

Any trade with Boston will come with an extension most likely as Gonzalez wants to play for the Red Sox, and it wouldn't shock me to see that extension be below market.

So if we let the Red Sox trade for him, we'll have to face him and Mark Teixeira for 36 games for at least the next 6 years.

And you can say that trading prospects hurts the Red Sox but it really doesn't as they can easily replace those prospects as they are willing to spend internationally and in the draft.

If we let the Red Sox grab Gonzalez, we might as well forget about the playoffs in this division for quite some time IMO unless we can counter with a big move of our own. And since MacPhail wants to put blinders on and just have the Orioles focus on themselves, I doubt that happens.

[MrOrange82]

There's a keep away part of this too that's too big to ignore. Boston covets Gonzalez and they do not have the power prospects in the minors to fill that 1B position.

By trading for Gonzalez, you keep him away from a division rival and force them to pay huge $ for Fielder or Howard or trade for a player that isn't quite as good.

Any trade with Boston will come with an extension most likely as Gonzalez wants to play for the Red Sox, and it wouldn't shock me to see that extension be below market.

So if we let the Red Sox trade for him, we'll have to face him and Mark Teixeira for 36 games for at least the next 6 years.

And you can say that trading prospects hurts the Red Sox but it really doesn't as they can easily replace those prospects as they are willing to spend internationally and in the draft.

If we let the Red Sox grab Gonzalez, we might as well forget about the playoffs in this division for quite some time IMO unless we can counter with a big move of our own. And since MacPhail wants to put blinders on and just have the Orioles focus on themselves, I doubt that happens.

Seems to me that's a game of keep-away the O's can't afford to play, let alone lose. Our prospects are a lot more valuable to us than those of the Red Sox are to the Red Sox. Plus, the money it'd take to make the deal worthwhile to the O's in the long term doesn't come as easily to us as it does to the likes of Boston.

Besides...I really don't think AGon going to the Sox spells the difference between the O's competing or not-competing within the division over the next several years. Boston's offense, even with AGon, doesn't scare me that much...

(taking for granted that Bay goes elsewhere)

[RShack]

There's a keep away part of this too that's too big to ignore. Boston covets Gonzalez and they do not have the power prospects in the minors to fill that 1B position.

By trading for Gonzalez, you keep him away from a division rival and force them to pay huge $ for Fielder or Howard or trade for a player that isn't quite as good.

Trea, this is nuts. You don't go trading away a whole crew of talent, and commit yourself to pretty much having to spend big on a guy for years to come, because you think it's important to frustrate BOS's alleged-efforts to get him. That's just goofy.

Any trade with Boston will come with an extension most likely...

Well, then we don't have to worry about it. Nobody does big extensions that are a couple years away from kicking in. AFAIK, that has never ever happened. So, if you think BOS is smart enough to require an extension, then the entire premise of your big sense of urgency about giving away the farm to spite BOS is based on an empty fantasy. That's not how things really happen...

[birdman57]

This Boston Globe story is really incomplete and just speculation by the writer. From what I have heard through various sources here in Boston is that the Padres will hold onto AGon until trade deadline and then guage other team's interests. I have heard further that if the Red Sox want him, they need to start with Daniel Bard and not Clay Buchholz. Westmoreland would also be needed in the package. From an Orioles standpoint, I'm in favor of moving on AGon for the simple reason that this franchise needs to make a statement it wants to win again after 12 losing years. That said, an inconsistent rookie (Tillman), injury plagued prospect (Erbe) and fourth outfield type (Pie) is not going to get the job done in my opinion. Matusz is obviously untouchable from my standpoint, but others like Arrietta, Britton and possibly Bell could be in play. We would likely have to add a fourth prospect to make this fly. Admittedly this is a roll of the dice for a guy who could walk in two years but it's a chance this franchise has to think long and hard about taking with the mindset we can be very competiive in 2010 and contend in 2011 - enough to convince AGon to sign here long term:)

[UMDTerrapins]

If it's just Erbe, Pie and Tillman (plus some low 2nd-tier guys like Patton, Aubrey), I would say yes... but contingent on signing him to an extension for an additional 3-4 years (total contract, say, 6 years, $102.)

Or is that just wishful thinking??

I don't think you're too far off, but the players offered would need to be a little better. 6/102 would be a good offer for both sides, given that he's only currently scheduled to make $10.25 over the next two seasons.

I'm still not on board though, we need to keep our young pitching. I'd rather find a quality stopgap for 1B in 2010, expecting to give Snyder a look midseason if he's ready. My hope is that Snyder locks up the position this season, but if that doesn't happen Derrek Lee is still a decent looking FA option next offseason, despite his age. But for 2010, getting someone like Delgado to sign will be hard because it's known that Snyder isn't far off and that Luke Scott owns the DH spot (one of a number of reasons I feel trading Scott should happen as long as the deal is fair and brings in talent somewhere it is needed).

[weams]

There's a keep away part of this too that's too big to ignore. Boston covets Gonzalez and they do not have the power prospects in the minors to fill that 1B position.

By trading for Gonzalez, you keep him away from a division rival and force them to pay huge $ for Fielder or Howard or trade for a player that isn't quite as good.

Any trade with Boston will come with an extension most likely as Gonzalez wants to play for the Red Sox, and it wouldn't shock me to see that extension be below market.

So if we let the Red Sox trade for him, we'll have to face him and Mark Teixeira for 36 games for at least the next 6 years.

And you can say that trading prospects hurts the Red Sox but it really doesn't as they can easily replace those prospects as they are willing to spend internationally and in the draft.

If we let the Red Sox grab Gonzalez, we might as well forget about the playoffs in this division for quite some time IMO unless we can counter with a big move of our own. And since MacPhail wants to put blinders on and just have the Orioles focus on themselves, I doubt that happens.

Is Gonzales better than Youkilis and is Youkilis better than Lowell has been? I personally see little improvement. Bay is gone and Ortiz is never going to be Papi again.

[JTrea81]

Is Gonzales better than Youkilis and is Youkilis better than Lowell has been? I personally see little improvement. Bay is gone and Ortiz is never going to be Papi again.

Yes and yes, and don't forget the Red Sox could also easily sign Matt Holliday.

MacPhail can say that the Orioles need to focus on "getting better." But it's just that much harder to get better when your rivals keep raising the bar.