Padres asking price for Adrian Gonzalez

[foxfield]

There's a keep away part of this too that's too big to ignore. Boston covets Gonzalez and they do not have the power prospects in the minors to fill that 1B position.

By trading for Gonzalez, you keep him away from a division rival and force them to pay huge $ for Fielder or Howard or trade for a player that isn't quite as good.

Any trade with Boston will come with an extension most likely as Gonzalez wants to play for the Red Sox, and it wouldn't shock me to see that extension be below market.

So if we let the Red Sox trade for him, we'll have to face him and Mark Teixeira for 36 games for at least the next 6 years.

And you can say that trading prospects hurts the Red Sox but it really doesn't as they can easily replace those prospects as they are willing to spend internationally and in the draft.

If we let the Red Sox grab Gonzalez, we might as well forget about the playoffs in this division for quite some time IMO unless we can counter with a big move of our own. And since MacPhail wants to put blinders on and just have the Orioles focus on themselves, I doubt that happens.

I do not mind your opinions that we are doomed near as much as I mind your statements of fact that are nothing more than your jaded opinion of us failing. I think I have stated before...AM has plenty of work to do here before he can be knighted as a savior of our beleaguered franchise...but statements like the bolded one above demonstrate a lack of intelligent reasoning.

Difference of opinion over what we should do...hey no problem. Put me in the camp of doing everything we can to win the World Series EVERY YEAR!!! And I find many of your ideas interesting in the sense of approaching things in a fantasy prospective. Your complete disrespect for AM, is annoying however. Defending him is not necessary in the sense that he is a proven baseball exec.

He is not infallible, but your idea that he is perpetually inept is insane. Again, to be clear...the frustration you mention that if another 1b stud is acquired by a rival, it makes our hill that much higher to climb. But your point that if the Sox trade for AGon, he will resign because he wants to play there simply underscores that there is more foundational work to do here.

Of course that is only my opinion.

[jdouble777]

Did you just gave me the proverbial hand without even citing a single tangible fact to support your argument? A-Gon's respective hr/rbi numbers over the last three seasons -30/100, 36/119 and 40/99. Even if he regresses a bit he's still going to be a lock for 35/100 (with a solid batting avg) for years to come.

And you're going to have to do better then "despite what other people believe" to make a case that most players still peak at 27 years old. Even if that's true, I'd counter with the fact that good players are now productive for a longer period of time, given advances in training, medical treatment, etc. And did you just really try to argue that A-Gon's A-Gon was literally pitched around every AB. It's amazing he was even able to post the numbers he did. Sure, his walks might come down a bit if he's playing in a better lineup, but we're also likely to see a spike in his power numbers because he'll be seeing better pitches to hit. And just think of how much better he'll make the players hitting in front of him...

If you don't think it's in our best interest to trade young pitching for A-Gon or to trade for A-Gon in general that's fine. Heck, my personal thoughts are we'd be better off shopping Ad.Jones or Markakis to the Pads for him, based on our OF depth, but to question his productivity is a bit "out there:. If I had to compare A-Gon to a player of yesteryear, it would be Palmeiro, with the potential to be better. I think we'd all be ectastic to have Palmeiro, in his prime, batting clean-up for the Os in 2010.

Chipper Jones

He is pretty locked for .280/35/100 for many years to come, getting the extension would have to happen (similar to the Johan Santana deal in terms of process). The reality is you are getting two cheap years, then he can bolt, what is that worth, I don't know exactly but certainly not the entire farm or Jones or Markakis. Years 27-35 of a guy locked for .280/35/100, that is quite the different story. Imagine him, with Weiters Roberts and Makrkais, for many years to come a top the order.

[crawjo]

You wanna know who else never came close to 119 walks prior to last year? AGON!

He had a spike in his BB rate ala Nick did in 2008 and we saw how much that came down.

AGon was usually a 360ish OPS guy...You are trading a boatload for the 407 OBP guy...You are trading for a 550 slugging guy...he was never really better than 500 before.

Do you not see the problem here?

On the other hand, Gonzalez achieved all this in his age 27 season, which is typically when young hitters start reaching their peak, and in an extreme pitcher's park.

Look, my view is that Tillman is likely never going to be the stud many people here think he is going to be. He might be in the NL, but not in the AL East, not with his fly ball ratio. It would be better to trade him for something of real value--and that's Gonzalez.

Comparing him to Huff is a distraction. Huff showed the makings of a future superstar from age 25-27. His comps during those years include some impressive names--Jason Giambi among them. The fact that he wandered about instead of getting better after then doesn't give any reason to think that Gonzalez will do the same.

Point blank question: Who is more likely to produce at a high level in the major leagues during the next five years: Adrian Gonzalez or Chris Tillman? There's an easy answer to that one. And yes, I know you can say that for almost any prospect versus any all-star. The point, here, is that the Orioles have an excess of pitching prospects but a dearth of good hitting prospects. It makes sense to trade a pitching prospect for a really good young hitter at a position of need, especially if really good young hitters who hit the FA market have repeatedly shown their disinclination to come to Baltimore when given other options.

[Robbie]

I personally think A-Gon is one of the elite players in baseball. However, I think It would be stupid to trade all the players we are talking about to any player except maybe Hanley or Longoria.

[Roll Tide]

Well if that is not the biggest strawman I have ever seen...

The point is that not all of them will pan out, but you have to let some of them pan out with the Orioles.

Notice the Rays didn't start trading pitching until they had 3 solid young starters. Notice the A's also don't start trading pitchers until they have 3 solid young pitchers.

Right now the Orioles have ZERO young pitchers to stabilize a rotation that are established. They can't afford to play guessing games at which ones will pan out.

I agree with you on this point. And YES some will have the chance to pan out with the Orioles....But SOME should be traded at their peak prospect value... Not once they bust.

[theobird]

I would not give up a package of 4-5 of our top prospects for anyone, not even Albert Pujols. But I also do not buy into the "Gonzalez isn't a premier power hitter" club either. He is certainly is, no question about that in my mind. I would offer S.D Jones and Tillman. Matusz is off the table. I'd be thrilled with that trade, because i think Pie will be the better overall CFer between he and Jones, and I am not that high on Tillman. I think we can well afford that deal, and we have our power hitting force for the middle of the lineup. If the Pads don't like that deal, move on.

[Robbie]

I agree with you on this point. And YES some will have the chance to pan out with the Orioles....But SOME should be traded at their peak prospect value... Not once they bust.

This is where I disagree with you. If we wait and let our individual prospects develop and succeed/bust, as a whole they will have more value than they do now.

[Sports Guy]

On the other hand, Gonzalez achieved all this in his age 27 season, which is typically when young hitters start reaching their peak, and in an extreme pitcher's park.

Look, my view is that Tillman is likely never going to be the stud many people here think he is going to be. He might be in the NL, but not in the AL East, not with his fly ball ratio. It would be better to trade him for something of real value--and that's Gonzalez.

Comparing him to Huff is a distraction. Huff showed the makings of a future superstar from age 25-27. His comps during those years include some impressive names--Jason Giambi among them. The fact that he wandered about instead of getting better after then doesn't give any reason to think that Gonzalez will do the same.

Point blank question: Who is more likely to produce at a high level in the major leagues during the next five years: Adrian Gonzalez or Chris Tillman? There's an easy answer to that one. And yes, I know you can say that for almost any prospect versus any all-star. The point, here, is that the Orioles have an excess of pitching prospects but a dearth of good hitting prospects. It makes sense to trade a pitching prospect for a really good young hitter at a position of need, especially if really good young hitters who hit the FA market have repeatedly shown their disinclination to come to Baltimore when given other options.

Again, if you are going to trade a huge package of players for someone and have that package headlined by Tillman, you should be acquiring a younger, better and more service time player than AGon.

The thing so many of you are overlooking is the amount it will take to extend AGon, IF he is willing to extend here to begin with.

[foxfield]

I agree with you on this point. And YES some will have the chance to pan out with the Orioles....But SOME should be traded at their peak prospect value... Not once they bust.

I think this is right, but if you agree with the earlier point, does that not require waiting until we have some prospects pan out...and then begin to move future prospects, some at the top of their value? Doing so now when we are clearly way more than one or two moves away from a strong run seems counter to agreeing to the original point that you agreed to.

So I guess I agree both with the first point that you agreed to and to your point as well, as long as you are speaking of the future and not the present....does that make sense?

[OrioleFanatic2008]

If you don't think it's in our best interest to trade young pitching for A-Gon or to trade for A-Gon in general that's fine. Heck, my personal thoughts are we'd be better off shopping Ad.Jones or Markakis to the Pads for him, based on our OF depth, but to question his productivity is a bit "out there:. If I had to compare A-Gon to a player of yesteryear, it would be Palmeiro, with the potential to be better. I think we'd all be ectastic to have Palmeiro, in his prime, batting clean-up for the Os in 2010.

I think you're on to something at least as far as utilizing some of our outfield depth. Not to say that I'm advocating putting a "for sale" sign on guys like Jones, but I'd much prefer to give an outfielder up than to part with young, high potential pitching, especially when many on here have already proven how much we need pitching.

[MrOrange82]

I don't understand some of the sentiments that seem to fly around the board. A good many people would've been satisfied with the likes of Pedro Feliz as a stop-gap 3rd baseman, and others still want Kouzmanoff (read: the players dually responsible for the death of OBP. Seriously, they killed it. I saw it happen).

A great many also railed against the idea of trading for Miguel Cabrera based almost entirely on his personal problems (never mind the fact that he's not just a perennial all-star, but a present and future HOF candidate if he keeps up the pace, and locked up for 6 more years). But Adrian Gonzalez? Ship off some of our best prospects for him.

And create a gaping hole in our rotation while you're at it. It's not like our rotation was a liability last year or anything...

Never mind that we probably won't be positioned to win while AGon's here, and never mind that our system really isn't deep enough to siphon off players for a two year, sure-to-test-the-market rental. Why is it that people seem to automatically overvalue our prospects when it comes to acquiring players like Billy Butler, but somehow rationalize selling the farm for Adrian Gonzalez?

SG's made a ton of good points about the guy's actual and prospective value to no avail. Honestly, I understand the desperate desire most O's fans have to see the team do something that feels significant, but the kind of trade y'all seem to be in favor of is just...nonsensical.

[Sports Guy]

For those who want AGon...Would you have dealt Tillman, Erbe, Snyder, Pie and Mickolio for Markakis after his 6.3 WAR season of 2008?

[Roll Tide]

For those who want AGon...Would you have dealt Tillman, Erbe, Snyder, Pie and Mickolio for Markakis after his 6.3 WAR season of 2008?

I'd be happy with the 35 homers & 106 + rbi he has averaged over the last three seasons. Its apples & oranges since Markakis hasnt put up with three years of those numbers ...If they were we wouldnt need Gonzalez to bat 4th for this team.

[Sports Guy]

I'd be happy with the 35 homers & 106 + rbi he has averaged over the last three seasons. Its apples & oranges since Markakis hasnt put up with three years of those numbers ...If they were we wouldnt need Gonzalez to bat 4th for this team.

Well, you can be awed by those 36 homers but Nick was a more valuable player in 2008 than AGon was in 2009...Nick was also much younger and under control for a lot longer...ie much cheaper.

[Roll Tide]

Well, you can be awed by those 36 homers but Nick was a more valuable player in 2008 than AGon was in 2009...Nick was also much younger and under control for a lot longer...ie much cheaper.

Actually he hit 40 this season playing for the Pads in a pitchers park.

Nick had 20 homers & 87 RBIs in 2008

And 18 Homers & 101 RBIs this season

Gonzalez had 36 Homer & 119 RBIs in 2008 (16 more Home runs & 32 more RBI)

and this season 40 Homers & 99 Rbis (a little low but his slg % was 510 ..so I suspect he batted often with the bases empty)

In fact his SLG has been .500 the past 4 seasons. Its funny Nick hasnt had a .500 SLG since hes been in the majors.

SG I cant believe your trying to argue that Nick is a comparable player to Gonzalez ...It just isnt true. Dont argue the OPS with me because Gonzalez's job is ti hit homers & drive in runs.

keep the WAR stats & all ...Besides Nick would be a much more productive player with Gonzalez batting behind him in the line up.