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Lackey to B-Sox?

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By bballguru
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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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You have to wonder if he'll be worth that in the end of his contract. Hell, you have to wonder if he'll be worth that in 3 years.

Lackey is a good pitcher, don't get me wrong...he just benefits from being the best pitcher in this FA class, which ain't sayin a whole lot.

He has been worth 23.4 wins the last 5 years...To justify 5/90, he would need to be worth 18 or so over the next 5...Tough to say...I do agree it would be borderline but I don't think its a contract we look back on and regret...Even if he only ends up being worth 70 million, would we really regret the deal?

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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He has been worth 23.4 wins the last 5 years...To justify 5/90, he would need to be worth 18 or so over the next 5...Tough to say...I do agree it would be borderline but I don't think its a contract we look back on and regret...Even if he only ends up being worth 70 million, would we really regret the deal?

You're saying if we got him 5/90? I dunno, depends on how well we do with him. I was just merely saying the name John Lackey doesn't immediately come to my mind when thinking about the real true aces in the game. I think the Yankees overpaid for Burnett and if given the chance to have either of em for the same contract I'd rather go with Burnett. But, whatever.

Personally I'd rather go after Beckett next year.

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You're saying if we got him 5/90?

I dunno, depends on how well we do with him.

Personally I'd rather go after Beckett next year.

Ok..Beckett will be 30 going into next offseason...He has had his own injury issues in the past, admittingly most of them were earlier in his career.

He has a great postseason record.

IF(and I think it is a big if) he hits the FA market next year and is coming off of a big year, he will get far more than Lackey just got...Like maybe even Sabathia money..or close to it.

Are you paying that?

Is Beckett worth 50 million and 1-2 years more than lackey?

Are you prepared to win an all out bidding war with Boston, NY, NY, LA, LA, etc...?

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

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Ok..Beckett will be 30 going into next offseason...He has had his own injury issues in the past, admittingly most of them were earlier in his career.

He has a great postseason record.

IF(and I think it is a big if) he hits the FA market next year and is coming off of a big year, he will get far more than Lackey just got...Like maybe even Sabathia money..or close to it.

Are you paying that?

Is Beckett worth 50 million and 1-2 years more than lackey?

Are you prepared to win an all out bidding war with Boston, NY, NY, LA, LA, etc...?

Well it's not my money... :D

In all seriousness, I think I would. I know you and I differ here but if we wind up winning 80-85 games and our young pitchers look legit I think I'd try to land him. That'd be a sick rotation.

I'm not sure how much more Beckett is worth than Lackey but I do know I wouldn't hesitate to pay more.

What about you?

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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He has been worth 23.4 wins the last 5 years...To justify 5/90, he would need to be worth 18 or so over the next 5...Tough to say...I do agree it would be borderline but I don't think its a contract we look back on and regret...Even if he only ends up being worth 70 million, would we really regret the deal?

More like 20-21. Plus, if there's an option like Trea mentioned, that has to be considered.

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Well it's not my money... :D

In all seriousness, I think I would. I know you and I differ here but if we wind up winning 80-85 games and our young pitchers look legit I think I'd try to land him. That'd be a sick rotation.

I'm not sure how much more Beckett is worth than Lackey but I do know I wouldn't hesitate to pay more.

What about you?

Gotta see how this year plays out...He saw a spike in his walk rate this year...His HR rate went up as well.

His FIP, which was still very good, was the second highest its been in his career when he has pitched 140 or more innings(7 seasons).

Now, his xFIP was down this year though and his HR/FB% was a little unlucky.

So, we shall see.

If his peripherals aren't taking a dive, I would give him more money than I would Lackey but I wouldn't go 6 or 7 guaranteed years.

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Lee would be a guy I'd really want next year. Would want him much more than Lackey, especially when considering the timing of the contract.

Lee is apparently talking like he wants Sabathia money, which is why the Phillies made the deal...Are you prepared to go 6 or 7 years at 20+ million for him?

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

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Now with a guy like Josh Johnson available possibly after 2010, perhaps the Orioles might be looking to make a run at him next offseason via trade.

That's the guy you sink some money and years into.

20+ million per season for Beckett or Lee is a horrible idea IMO.

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Now with a guy like Josh Johnson available possibly after 2010, perhaps the Orioles might be looking to make a run at him next offseason via trade.

That's the guy you sink some money and years into.

20+ million per season for Beckett or Lee is a horrible idea IMO.

I swear I am not trying to pick a fight with you by any means...But why is 20 million for them a horrible idea but 18 million for Holliday isn't?

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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I swear I am not trying to pick a fight with you by any means...But why is 20 million for them a horrible idea but 18 million for Holliday isn't?

Holliday is much less likely to suffer an injury that would make that contract an albatross IMO.

Pitchers are far too risky to pay that kind of money to, especially ones that have thrown a ton of innings like Beckett.

Just look at Santana. That contract for the Mets looks pretty bad right now. CC is a ticking time bomb as well IMO.

Of all the bad contracts that are in the 100 million+ range, the majority have been for pitchers.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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Lee is apparently talking like he wants Sabathia money, which is why the Phillies made the deal...Are you prepared to go 6 or 7 years at 20+ million for him?

Who cares what he wants? I'm sure Lackey would have loved to have gotten CC money too.

He'll be a few years older than CC was when trying to get this deal.

5 years with an option would probably be my limit, and I think that is likely to be good enough length wise.

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