Law's Rankings

[Frobby]

Frobby, you are pointing out exceptions rather than the rules. Seems rather unlike Frobby to dismiss experts' opinions with a 'does anyone care anymore' comment.

If these experts were not more right than others, others would have that job.

I think you are misconstruing what I meant. I'm just saying that now that Bergesen and Reimold have proven themselves to be useful major league players, do we care anymore whether they were or were not ranked on someone's top 100 list a year ago?

I think we get a little too hung up on top 25, top 50, top 100, etc. There are very few sure things in this sport. It's the most surprising game there is, that's why it's so endlessly fascinating to me.

[Tony-OH]

I agree to an extent. The problem with evaluating so many players live is that you only see each player for a small amount of time, so one good/bad performance can completely skew your opinion.

Perhaps, but I'm sure Law uses other sources as well. I know I never feel real confident about my analysis of a player until I see them for myself.

[winudi]

As a follow-up, Law picked Joseph as a sleeper to make the top 100 next year.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4869851

Says he has more of a shortstop body, but the O's like him as a catcher and hitting .300 with some pop will play every day behind the plate.

[MarkakisFan21]

Kind of off topic, but do you guys think it's pretty likely that Britton will start at Bowie this year?

[Lucky Jim]

Kind of off topic, but do you guys think it's pretty likely that Britton will start at Bowie this year?

No question. And I suspect he'll be in AAA pretty quickly (mid-season) if successful.

[LookinUp]

Unlike the BA guys (who go off their own scouts and contacts for the most part), Law has fervently stated that he makes an explicit point to see most if not all of his top 100 in person.

That's why he's so adamant about why he differs from some of the other eval services...often saying, "I've seen him, here's my opinion."

Now that does lead to some variations just due to sample size. Maybe he caught Britton on some of his best days. And likewise saw Arrieta on one of the days his velo was down.

At any rate, to have a system rated that highly by Law, especially with all the graduations, is quite the compliment. With only 4 guys in the top 100, you have to take that as recognition of organizational depth being stronger. System has a nice balance between stars and solid major league prospects.

I didn't mean that post as a knock to Law. I'm sure he's very good at what he does. On the other hand, I'm also sure he sees a lot of non-prospects have big days. He obviously doesn't base his rankings solely on what he sees in person.

There is a foundational aspect to developing list rankings on a national level. For example, anyone doing so should probably have Jessee Beal on their radar at this point, right?

All of these "informed" folks are informed by more than what their eyes and stat sheets tell them. They talk to local scouts and probably read nice compilations like those placed here on the OH. After all, these lists are also based on more than what Tony sees with his own eyes. They're based on conversations that Tony has with additional people in the know.

All I'm saying is that it'd be stupid for a national guy to not read Tony's list, and I bet that Law's ranking of Britton and/or Arrieta either takes Tony's analysis into account or the analysis of some of the same people that Tony talks to into account. OTOH, I concede that Law may have seen Britton on a day that really helps support Tony's take.

I really doubt it's a total coincidence though.

[Stotle]

I didn't mean that post as a knock to Law. I'm sure he's very good at what he does. On the other hand, I'm also sure he sees a lot of non-prospects have big days. He obviously doesn't base his rankings solely on what he sees in person.

There is a foundational aspect to developing list rankings on a national level. For example, anyone doing so should probably have Jessee Beal on their radar at this point, right?

All of these "informed" folks are informed by more than what their eyes and stat sheets tell them. They talk to local scouts and probably read nice compilations like those placed here on the OH. After all, these lists are also based on more than what Tony sees with his own eyes. They're based on conversations that Tony has with additional people in the know.

All I'm saying is that it'd be stupid for a national guy to not read Tony's list, and I bet that Law's ranking of Britton and/or Arrieta either takes Tony's analysis into account or the analysis of some of the same people that Tony talks to into account. OTOH, I concede that Law may have seen Britton on a day that really helps support Tony's take.

I really doubt it's a total coincidence though.

This is not to take away from Tony whatsoever, but I can't see anyone's list strongly influencing Law. He doesn't shy away dropping players that are roundly accepted by organizations/other media sources and he has no issue pumping up guys that he likes and others do not. I think what you have here is Law happening to be high on the same guy. I strongly doubt that the OH list, or any list by independent publications, were taken into account by Keith.

[Lucky Jim]

This is not to take away from Tony whatsoever, but I can't see anyone's list strongly influencing Law. He doesn't shy away dropping players that are roundly accepted by organizations/other media sources and he has no issue pumping up guys that he likes and others do not. I think what you have here is Law happening to be high on the same guy. I strongly doubt that the OH list, or any list by independent publications, were taken into account by Keith.

Yeah. Law sort-of prizes his reputation as a kind of self-sufficient iconoclast. He's not measuring consensus in the way that BA, and the prospectors at BP, and the folks at MLB.com measure consensus.

I wouldn't be surprised if he looks stuff over to make sure he's not missing someone who's flying under radar. But the final evaluation is less likely to take third-party opinions into account.