Tejada .971, L. Hernandez .965

[Moose Milligan]

Yeah, but the issue was you were 1000 of those posts.

It's funny cause its true.

[now]

shortstop, which is much more important as a defensive position than offensive.

Just a point of logic here...because it keeps coming up.

1. Offense is more important than fielding, regardless of position. Meaning, variations in offensive skill have more of a bearing on game outcomes than variations in defensive skill. Supporting evidence for this: part of defense is fielding-independent pitching (strikeouts and HR), and another part is routine, leaving just a portion up to relative skill. See also Win Shares breakdowns, with fielding skill only getting around 30% of the weight for the defensive side of the game (making it only 15% of the total game).

2. Some positions are more important than others for fielding skill. The most important fielding position is shortstop.

The conclusion for 1 and 2 above is not that "shortstop is more important defensively than offensively." It is simply that it is more important defensively than other positions, and therefore less important offensively than other positions.

Now taking the above logic a step further...

Another way to look at it on a team-wide basis is that if you have only so much defense and offense to buy for your team, it makes sense to put the best defense up the middle and the best offense at the corners. IF you can add offense as well up the middle, and defense at the corners, so much the better. But these are bonuses after filling the first requirements.

BTW the Orioles seem to have failed at both the parts that posters have pointed out should be "easy":

--finding superior defense for the middle (may have to include Roberts after the latest UZR figures!)

--finding superior offense for the corners.

They had it right, with bonus points, when they signed Tejada, and again last year with Ramon Hernandez; but now evidently it's back to the drawing board.

[Old#5fan]

I'd agree with you up to 2004, the last two years tells you he is declining. Evidence that disputes your analysis:

1. 2005 PMR/Comprehensive analysis

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/on-defense-subjective-data-objectively-considered/

Tejadas skill score of 42 is significantly below average. Near the bottom of the barrel.

2. 2006 data. Another pbp analysis employing hit charts and detailing location/angle/speed etc.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/infield-defense-mdash-back-to-basics/

Note the plot/chart for the SS position and the Orioles overall postion with respect to team defense.

3. Tejadas RF9 vs league RF9 for the past 3 seasons.

4.72/4.60

4.56/4.49

3.97/4.27

Notice a trend here. I believe he got hit on the wrist, not on the legs this year.

4. When Tejadas Plus-Minus data comes out in the 2007 Fielding Bible, I'd be willing to bet that Tejada will rate as follows:

Range to Left: Significantly below average.

Plays at him: Average.

Plays to right: Above average.

DPs: Below average.

Flyballs: Below average.

Overall: Below average

Care to make a bet?

I would sure bet on you being right! I love how people refuse to believe reality even when the Orioles Management has already come out publicly that a move must be made. I don't know how much more stronger evidence one needs to convince some of these stubbornly wrong posters. Its almost beyond belief at this point in time!

[Old#5fan]

If Tejada had to make a play 2 steps to either his left or right the batter got on. If Tejada had to charge the ball he wouldn't even get there in time to make a play at first.

Chollie, you Gurgi, and I have seen this all along but apparently we are still unbelievably in the minority on this forum. I guess its doing to take the total absense of Tejada from the shortstop position whether via trade or moving to another position to show them, but even them I wonder if they will ever see what even the Orioles management, scouts and the opposition all know, and that is Tejada's defense is a liability as a shortstop now period.

[Frobby]

Fielding percentage (unless there is an extremely large variation) is one of the least relevant statistics, ZR/RZR and even UZR have serious flaws. Seventh in OOZ isn't particularly impresssive and RZR/OOZ doesn't measure more detailed analysis like how hard the ball was hit/angle, flyballs, ball handling/DPs etc. Quite frankly I've seen Tejada take numerous balls OOZ because he was too slow to cut the ball off at a shorter angle. The data I've provided you is comprehensive and breaks down each play on an individual basis (except for RF9) and is far more relevant than what you are citing IMO.

You can ignore it, but pretty much every baseball analyst I've listened to this past year agrees with me and not with you. From what I gather they are citing scouting reports in addition to their own experience.

I've watched just about every game this year and my eyes tell me a different story than yours and IMO the more comprehensive analysis I've provided backs me up.

Care to take me up on that bet or not?

Reading this post makes me think that fielding statistics are kind of like religion -- you can believe whichever one you want and nobody can really prove you wrong. Earlier in this thread, you made a post that discounted ZR and appeared to endorse RZR, OOZ and UZR. http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1062213&postcount=54 Now that those stats don't really support the position you want to take, you've moved on to another set of statistics that does, and also have fallen back on RF which most would agree is a very flawed statistic.

FWIW, I happen to agree with your overall analysis of Tejada -- weak to his left, pretty good to his right, not so good on DP's. The real question is: is he so bad, so far below average, that the team would be better off with a better-fielding shortstop who doesn't hit as well? Would we give away more hits at the plate than we would take away in the field if we made a switch? And its going to be pretty hard to find a statistical analysis that doesn't lead to the conclusion that Tejada will contribute more on net than most slick fielding, no-hit SS's.

[The Wedge]

I do not want to come across that i am a Miggy defensive apologist...I have been saying we need better defense at SS. I am not denying that.

As a matter of fact, i think you would be hard pressed to find one hangouter who doesn't agree with that.

However, to replace Miggy with a guy like Hernandez is just a bad idea. The guy has to be able to hit. He has to bring more to the table than slightly above average defense.

This is my position as well.

And as a point of fact, Orioles Management agreeing with a position isn't exactly the most ringing of endorsements.

[Old#5fan]

This is my position as well.

And as a point of fact, Orioles Management agreeing with a position isn't exactly the most ringing of endorsements.

Okay, I give up, we cannot possibly be correct on this. Orioles Management- McPhail, Trembley, the coaches, Chollie, Gurgi, and me are all idiots in our stance. You have convinced me of my erroneous judgment by your lucid, detailed, and well founded argument based on superb baseball knowledge, experience, and analysis.

Ergo, Tejada should remain at shortstop forever more blundering his routine DP's and barely having enough range to charge a ball and make a routine play at first.

[The Wedge]

I hope that was a response to me. Just so I can say "can't see it, don't care."

[Moose Milligan]

Okay, I give up, we cannot possibly be correct on this. Orioles Management- McPhail, Trembley, the coaches, Chollie, Gurgi, and me are all idiots in our stance. You have convinced me of my erroneous judgment by your lucid, detailed, and well founded argument based on superb baseball knowledge, experience, and analysis.

Ergo, Tejada should remain at shortstop forever more blundering his routine DP's and barely having enough range to charge a ball and make a routine play at first.

While providing good, to excellent offense from the SS position, Eli...er, #5 fan.

I can't wait till LH boots a few next year, wonder what you'll be saying then....

[rolliefingers]

Chollie, Gurgi, and me are all idiots in our stance.

Couldn't have said it better myself!

[DrungoHazewood]

Okay, I give up, we cannot possibly be correct on this. Orioles Management- McPhail, Trembley, the coaches, Chollie, Gurgi, and me are all idiots in our stance. You have convinced me of my erroneous judgment by your lucid, detailed, and well founded argument based on superb baseball knowledge, experience, and analysis.

Ergo, Tejada should remain at shortstop forever more blundering his routine DP's and barely having enough range to charge a ball and make a routine play at first.

78,999,984 posts on the matter and you still don't even get the other side's most basic arguments. No one has ever suggested that Tejada is a great defensive shortstop, and no one says the best route for this team to take is to just let him be the shortstop until the end of his contract.

What we want is Tejada to be traded, and for the O's to acquire a good young shortstop who does (or at least has a chance to do) everything pretty well.

We simply don't want a shortstop who can't hit his weight in the Eastern League. Yes, Tejada would be a better option than that, but we're really hoping the deified Mr. MacPhail can come up with a trade that'll render this whole argument moot.

[The Wedge]

78,999,984 posts on the matter and you still don't even get the other side's most basic arguments. No one has ever suggested that Tejada is a great defensive shortstop, and no one says the best route for this team to take is to just let him be the shortstop until the end of his contract.

What we want is Tejada to be traded, and for the O's to acquire a good young shortstop who does (or at least has a chance to do) everything pretty well.

We simply don't want a shortstop who can't hit his weight in the Eastern League. Yes, Tejada would be a better option than that, but we're really hoping the deified Mr. MacPhail can come up with a trade that'll render this whole argument moot.

To paraphrase my homeboy (and yours) Peter Gibbons, "It's not that he doesn't get it, it's that he just doesn't care."

[Moose Milligan]

78,999,984 posts on the matter and you still don't even get the other side's most basic arguments.

And they never will, Drungo. It's pretty useless to keep trying. Round pegs don't fit in square holes.

Or they do get it and just want to keep being difficult about it. Either way, ignore them and hope they'll go away, no matter how tempting it may be...and I know it's tempting...

[Mackus]

If Tejada had to make a play 2 steps to either his left or right the batter got on. If Tejada had to charge the ball he wouldn't even get there in time to make a play at first.

Hey everybody, hyperbole is fun!!!!!

[Gurgi]

Frankly it goes beyond stats now.

Tejada is either moving position or being shopped.

Who plays SS next year is still to be determined by MacPhail.