Tejada .971, L. Hernandez .965

[os1971]

Orioles management doesn't think Tejada is a bad defensive player. Orioles managerment has decided they want an elite defensive SS, which Tejada is not, and to get their offense elsewhere.

Are you in Orioles management or providing us with inside information? How do you know this? Didn't Trembeley just make a comment about his lack of range this week? Didn't Orioles Management approach him about moving to third or DH next year?

Considering Tejadas'

1. Offensive production.

2. Reasonable contract

3. Reduced trade value (because most other teams don't want him playing SS).

...if the Orioles though he was average defensivley then why in the world would they even consider moving him now? Seams to me if they thought he was average they would want to keep him.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, Tejada made an error every 35 chances this year...Hernandez made one every 28 chances.

[Moose Milligan]

BTW, Tejada made an error every 35 chances this year...Hernandez made one every 28 chances.

Yeah, but Hernandez has so much more range, SG. Stop being so thickheaded, GOSH! Maybe you should actually watch the games, stats are for idiots.

[Chollie Eckman]

BTW, Tejada made an error every 35 chances this year...Hernandez made one every 28 chances.

If Tejada had to make a play 2 steps to either his left or right the batter got on. If Tejada had to charge the ball he wouldn't even get there in time to make a play at first.

[os1971]

Yeah, but Hernandez has so much more range, SG. Stop being so thickheaded, GOSH! Maybe you should actually watch the games, stats are for idiots.

I wouldn't say that, but they should be looked with some critical analysis for what they are really worth.... especially defensive stats.

[Sports Guy]

I wouldn't say that, but they should be looked with some critical analysis for what they are really worth.... especially defensive stats.

And defensive stats tell you that, over the years, Tejada is a slightly below average to slightly above average SS...Depending on the year.

My eyes tell me the same thing.

He has a great arm....His range to his right is fine but is range to his left is subpar.

He doesn't hurt us out there but he also isn't helping enough.

Be great to find a better defensive SS but one that can hit as well.

[Moose Milligan]

And defensive stats tell you that, over the years, Tejada is a slightly below average to slightly above average SS...Depending on the year.

My eyes tell me the same thing.

He has a great arm....His range to his right is fine but is range to his left is subpar.

He doesn't hurt us out there but he also isn't helping enough.

Be great to find a better defensive SS but one that can hit as well.

You've got it all wrong, seriously SG. Come on! He's not good unless the ball is hit right at him and even then he has hands made out of stone. He lost so many games for us this year it's not even funny. Seriously, if we get a better defender out there I think we win at least 15 more games next year.

Wow, I really like making these extreme statements full of hyperbole! This is fun

[os1971]

And defensive stats tell you that, over the years, Tejada is a slightly below average to slightly above average SS...Depending on the year.

My eyes tell me the same thing.

He has a great arm....His range to his right is fine but is range to his left is subpar.

He doesn't hurt us out there but he also isn't helping enough.

Be great to find a better defensive SS but one that can hit as well.

I'd agree with you up to 2004, the last two years tells you he is declining. Evidence that disputes your analysis:

1. 2005 PMR/Comprehensive analysis

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/on-defense-subjective-data-objectively-considered/

Tejadas skill score of 42 is significantly below average. Near the bottom of the barrel.

2. 2006 data. Another pbp analysis employing hit charts and detailing location/angle/speed etc.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/infield-defense-mdash-back-to-basics/

Note the plot/chart for the SS position and the Orioles overall postion with respect to team defense.

3. Tejadas RF9 vs league RF9 for the past 3 seasons.

4.72/4.60

4.56/4.49

3.97/4.27

Notice a trend here. I believe he got hit on the wrist, not on the legs this year.

4. When Tejadas Plus-Minus data comes out in the 2007 Fielding Bible, I'd be willing to bet that Tejada will rate as follows:

Range to Left: Significantly below average.

Plays at him: Average.

Plays to right: Above average.

DPs: Below average.

Flyballs: Below average.

Overall: Below average

Care to make a bet?

[Sports Guy]

I'd agree with you up to 2004, the last two years tells you he is declining. Evidence that disputes your analysis:

1. 2005 PMR/Comprehensive detailed analysis

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/on-defense-subjective-data-objectively-considered/

Tejadas skill score of 42 is significantly below average. Near the bottom of the barrel.

2. 2006 data. Another pbp analysis employing hit charts/location/angle/speed.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/infield-defense-mdash-back-to-basics/

Note the plot/chart for the SS position and the Orioles overall postion with respect to team defense.

3. Tejadas RF9 vs league RF9 for the past 3 seasons.

4.72/4.60

4.56/4.49

3.97/4.27

Notice a trend here. I believe he got hit on the wrist, not on the legs this year.

4. When Tejadas Plus-Minus data comes out in the 2007 Fielding Bible, I'd be willing to bet that Tejada will rate as follows:

Range to Left: Significantly below average.

Plays at him: Average.

Plays to right: Above average.

DPs: Below average.

Flyballs: Below average.

Overall: Below average

Care to make a bet?

His UZR this year was, i believe, +4.

His ZR was 2nd amongst AL SS.

He was 7th in OOZ.

He was 5th in fielding %.

His August wasn't good but you know what, maybe he was just slumping in the field...Defense can definitely slump IMO.

He is lazy at times out there....He doesn't dive enough and he has poor range to his left.

But he also makes up for it in a lot of other ways, including his arm.

He guns out a lot of guys that other SS(like Hernandez) couldn't do.

Again, he is right around an average SS, give or take a little in either direction.

[os1971]

His UZR this year was, i believe, +4.

His ZR was 2nd amongst AL SS.

He was 7th in OOZ.

He was 5th in fielding %.

His August wasn't good but you know what, maybe he was just slumping in the field...Defense can definitely slump IMO.

He is lazy at times out there....He doesn't dive enough and he has poor range to his left.

But he also makes up for it in a lot of other ways, including his arm.

He guns out a lot of guys that other SS(like Hernandez) couldn't do.

Again, he is right around an average SS, give or take a little in either direction.

Fielding percentage (unless there is an extremely large variation) is one of the least relevant statistics, ZR/RZR and even UZR have serious flaws. Seventh in OOZ isn't particularly impresssive and RZR/OOZ doesn't measure more detailed analysis like how hard the ball was hit/angle, flyballs, ball handling/DPs etc. Quite frankly I've seen Tejada take numerous balls OOZ because he was too slow to cut the ball off at a shorter angle. The data I've provided you is comprehensive and breaks down each play on an individual basis (except for RF9) and is far more relevant than what you are citing IMO.

You can ignore it, but pretty much every baseball analyst I've listened to this past year agrees with me and not with you. From what I gather they are citing scouting reports in addition to their own experience.

I've watched just about every game this year and my eyes tell me a different story than yours and IMO the more comprehensive analysis I've provided backs me up.

Care to take me up on that bet or not?

[Sports Guy]

Fielding percentage (unless there is and extremely large variation) is one of the least relevant statistics, ZR/RZR and even UZR have serious flaws. Seventh in OOZ isn't particularly impresssive and RZR/OOZ doesn't measure more detailed analysis like how hard the ball was hit/angle, flyballs, ball handling/DPs etc. Quite frankly I've seen Tejada take numerous ball OOZ because he was too slow to cut the ball of at a shorter angle. The data I've provided you is comprehnsive and breaks down each play on an individual basis (except for RF9) and is far more relevant than what you ar citing IMO.

You can ignore it, but pretty much every baseball analyst I've listened to this past year agrees with me and not with you. From what I gather they are citing scouting reports.

I've watced just about every game this year and my eyes tell me a different story than yours and IMO the more comprehensive analysis I've provided backs me up.

Care to take me up on that bet or not?

Do you think i care what baseball analysts say?

Last year, most said Miggy was a poor fielder all year...That simply wasn't true. He was a poor fielder in the first half of the season because of his knee but was very solid in the second half.

As for your bet, i am not saying you are wrong and quite frankly, i don't care.

And your eyes tell you wrong....He may have been slightly below average this year as a whole, i will not disagree with that. But it wasn't below average by much.

He isn't killing us with his glove.

[os1971]

Do you think i care what baseball analysts say?

Last year, most said Miggy was a poor fielder all year...That simply wasn't true. He was a poor fielder in the first half of the season because of his knee but was very solid in the second half.

As for your bet, i am not saying you are wrong and quite frankly, i don't care.

And your eyes tell you wrong....He may have been slightly below average this year as a whole, i will not disagree with that. But it wasn't below average by much.

He isn't killing us with his glove.

I'll take that as a partial concession/correction from your previous statement/analysis. No problem if you don't want to bet, it would have just been a friendly wager.

As for what baseball analysts think, I'm not inclined to take any ones in particular. But they have more data than us and information about scouting reports than us. When every single one says hes not very good defensively (except the analysts on OH that is), it tends to impress me somewhat.

But I've pretty much watched every game for the past several years now (more or less) and I've been of this opinion since about mid 2005. Like #5 Oriole and some of the other less popular posters have said, the readily available data does not tell the real story, I'm quite sure the scouts have it though, and it will eventually be more readily available to the public.

Like I said, the stats/analysis I quoted are more relevant IMO. Be happy to break down the weaknesses in your stats/analysis if you'd like.

As a side note, I rather enjoy most of your analysis. On this one, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[Sports Guy]

I'll take that as a partial concession/correction from your previous statement/analysis. No problem if you don't want to bet, it would have just been a friendly wager.

As for what baseball analysts think, I'm not inclined to take any ones in particular. But they have more data than us and information about scouting reports than us. When every single one says hes not very good defensively (except the analysts on OH that is), it tends to impress me somewhat.

But I've pretty much watched every game for the past several years now (more or less) and I've been of this opinion since about mid 2005. Like #5

Oriole and some of the other less popular posters have said, the readily available data does not tell the real story, I'm quite sure the scouts have it though, and it will eventually be more readily available to the public.

Like I said, the stats/analyis I quoted are more relevant IMO. Be happy to break down the weaknesses in your stats/analysis if you'd like.

As a side note, I rather enjoy most of your analysis. On this one, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

I do not want to come across that i am a Miggy defensive apologist...I have been saying we need better defense at SS. I am not denying that.

As a matter of fact, i think you would be hard pressed to find one hangouter who doesn't agree with that.

However, to replace Miggy with a guy like Hernandez is just a bad idea. The guy has to be able to hit. He has to bring more to the table than slightly above average defense.

[os1971]

I do not want to come across that i am a Miggy defensive apologist...I have been saying we need better defense at SS. I am not denying that.

As a matter of fact, i think you would be hard pressed to find one hangouter who doesn't agree with that.

However, to replace Miggy with a guy like Hernandez is just a bad idea. The guy has to be able to hit. He has to bring more to the table than slightly above average defense.

Like some others have stated, I tend to judge offense based on the team as a whole not on an individual position by position basis. I do agree with a lot of posters here that LH will probably not perform very well offensively over the course of a season. My position is I'd just rather not waste our trade value/leverage to get a SS. I'd rather focus our trade leverage on getting the best talent available. If that's a SS, OK. If not, I'm fine with LH in 2008. We have numerous positions to fill and we're not going anywhere in 2008. So get the best talent to fill our multiple holes.

IF LH hits near the Mendoza line in 2008, we'll have at least seen how our young pitching staff does with a good defensive SS. There will plenty of easy fills for a decent defensive SS in 2009. 2B and SS with good defense and moderate offense are easy fills.

[Tony-OH]

Did Luis Hernandez's errors not matter?

I mean everytime Tejada made an error we saw some ridiculously stupid 4000 response thread about how awful Miggy was.

Where are the threads abotu Hernandez throwing the ball away?

Yeah, but the issue was you were 1000 of those posts.