JR House

[TommyD4207]

That was really long...

I think boiling this all down you get a couple of pretty clear indications:

1) JR House is a far, far better hitter than Paul Bako. Given 200 at bats in the majors I estimate that House would be 15-20 runs better. House is a .750 OPS hitter in the majors if he's even in the neighborhood of a typical translation of his AAA stats. A more optimistic assessment would put him in the .800+ range, but I'll be conservative and stick with .750. We know beyond any doubt that Bako is a .550-ish hitter. There's really no debate here.

2) Given the best available data it seems that House might allow nearly twice as many stolen bases as Bako, but at a success rate that's not terribly different. Given Tommy's SB/CS data in 565 innings, the difference in runs between them is about +7 to Bako.

3) So putting #1 and #2 together House is worth between one and two wins over Paul Bako.

4) Justifying keeping Bako as your backup catcher over House would involve some combinations of intangibles that is worth about two wins and $600k.

1) Once again, you're assuming that House keeps up his production that he's had all over the place and he hits like he's never hit before as a catcher. That's a lofty expectation to say the least I'd say. Definitely a leap of faith.

2) Also, once again, you're assuming that the success rate stays the same. This is also a huge leap of faith I'd say. It's been established that more guys are thrown out stealing in the Texas League and the International League than the American League. Why you would expect him to maintain his success rate, I don't know. This is an even bigger leap of faith.

3) See above.

4) Well, Bako is said to have intangibles by Leo Mazzone. If I'm gonna trust anyone it'd be him.

[mweb]

Why do you do this? Who is a "House hater"? I haven't seen anybody hating on House, only some people who are curious about better understanding his strengths and weaknesses....

If you're going to call me out for something, at least explain it.

When I ask someone a question, and they respond with another question among another point(s), I reply to them.

[mweb]

I tend to disagree with the idea that either one of them matters. Personally, I have nothing against either of them, and I hope they both have satisfying careers. I just don't know why people here care so much, that's all.

I think Tommy's doing a great job of looking into this. It appears that he's running into the mysteriously-great iconic power of JR's MiL OPS. The whole point of stats is to let you investigate things. It's not to just pick one prefab stat and then claim it trumps all others. I think a lot of people are invested in JR's MiL OPS to the exclusion of the rest of the package he presents. I don't know why. It seems like a tribal conflict to me, and poor Tommy is trying to use reason.

As for the O's, I think DT is the best ML friend JR's ever gonna have. If DT doesn't want him enough to press for him, that's significant to me. Nobody's gonna tell DT he can't have the dirt-cheap 3rd-string C he wants.

People who are supporting House have plenty of reason on their side.

It's not hard to figure out why it matters. Many of us feel House is likely to be better than Bako, plus he's obviously younger, cheaper, and has more upside, so it seems stupid to just dump House with no better backup catchers around. We generally care about our team doing things we perceive to be stupid and quite possibly costly in the win/loss column.

It's not just about House though, it's about many other guys that the O's haven't given a chance to that are likely as good or better than guys that have been on our 25 man roster. If this was an isolated decision, I don't think people would make as big of a deal over it.

Concerning your point that many are ignoring everything but House's minor league OPS, that's simply not true. We've acknowledged that his arm is a problem, however, probably not nearly as much of a problem as Tommy's original post showed based on some of the other posts on here. It also seems that his defense is just fine other than his arm. So I can easily turn your point around and say the people who don't want House on the team or don't think this matters only focuses on his arm. Well either that, or my favorite message board argument, which is the pro's know what they're doing.

[RShack]

Why do you do this? Who is a "House hater"? I haven't seen anybody hating on House, only some people who are curious about better understanding his strengths and weaknesses....

If you're going to call me out for something, at least explain it.

When I ask someone a question, and they respond with another question among another point(s), I reply to them.

I'm didn't mean to dodge anything, I thought I said what I meant clearly... but maybe not. Here's what I meant: TommyD put a lot of work into trying to honestly investigate something. In my experience, his effort is superior to the level of effort most folks put into these things. In that context, it saddens me to see the discussion devolve into referring to people who are not convinced of House's great value as "House haters". This is the kind of thing that discourages sincere discussions and helps them devolve into food fights with everybody repeating the Same Old Stuff eleventy-seven times.

Look, all the evidence indicates that TommyD' is a reasonable guy who tries hard to be fair. Do you really want his experience here to turn him into somebody who's cynical and snarky like me? ;-)

[DrungoHazewood]

1) Once again, you're assuming that House keeps up his production that he's had all over the place and he hits like he's never hit before as a catcher. That's a lofty expectation to say the least I'd say. Definitely a leap of faith.

I'm not even giving House his full minor league translation. I'm assuming he's only a .750 OPS hitter in the majors, even though his translated numbers suggest he might have an .800+.

I think you're assigning more weight to splits that may or not have meaning (i.e. what House has happened to hit while playing various positions) than is justified. Yes, House seemed to hit better as a 1B than as a DH or a C this year, but you're splitting his record into 100 or 180 at bat samples, and there are many reasons for variations in, essentially, 1/5th or 1/7th of a season.

2) Also, once again, you're assuming that the success rate stays the same. This is also a huge leap of faith I'd say. It's been established that more guys are thrown out stealing in the Texas League and the International League than the American League. Why you would expect him to maintain his success rate, I don't know. This is an even bigger leap of faith.

Catchers are only part of the whole stolen base equation. Pitchers have a rather large share of the burden.

And while you could argue that minor leaguers aren't as good at basestealing as their MLB counterparts, that is somewhat offset by the fact that major leaguers don't run as often.

In any case, it takes a very large difference in number steals and/or success rate to have a large impact on runs. Even if we penalized House or gave a bonus to Bako for his SB runs, we'd still be in the neighborhood of 10-12 runs difference.

You have to give Paul Bako the benefit of a lot of doubts to get him anywhere near JR House.

[TommyD4207]

Okay, I'll give my version of what it all boils down to:

1. It is by no means a foregone conclusion that he hits to a 750ish OPS as a backup catcher. As a 1B/DH, it's probably a very good chance. As a backup catcher, a position where he hasn't hit as well? I wouldn't call it a lead pipe lock by any means.

2. It is a very, very good chance that the runners in MLB are of better quality. They don't get thrown out anywhere near as much in MLB as they do in MiLB. In any case, House was 75% as good as his peers this year and 63% as good as his peers last year and both years he's had close to about twice as many guys going on him per capita. That's disconcerting to say the least. How anybody could just assume that he'd carry his success rate in spite of playing in a league where every catcher by and large is more successful, that's beyond me.

3. This is not referring to next year.

4. The intangibles are definitely on Bako's side. He has been said to have them. There have been no reports of House having that. What we do know is that he's had two managers this year. One of them was a former MLB catcher. The other has known him since he was 19 years old. I really doubt that they're rejecting giving him a fair shake. That sounds like little more than a conspiracy theory and I think they both believe that he's not a major league caliber catcher.

[mweb]

I'm didn't mean to dodge anything, I thought I said what I meant clearly... but maybe not. Here's what I meant: TommyD put a lot of work into trying to honestly investigate something. In my experience, his effort is superior to the level of effort most folks put into these things. In that context, it saddens me to see the discussion devolve into referring to people who are not convinced of House's great value as "House haters". This is the kind of thing that discourages sincere discussions and helps them devolve into food fights with everybody repeating the Same Old Stuff eleventy-seven times.

Look, all the evidence indicates that TommyD' is a reasonable guy who tries hard to be fair. Do you really want his experience here to turn him into somebody who's cynical and snarky like me? ;-)

First off, you implied I do this often, which I don't think is the case. Secondly, I wasn't talking about Tommy at all with the haters comment, I think that was quite clear. Thirdly, few if any are saying House has great value, but way to exaggerate to make a point. Furthermore, I admitted haters was the right choice of words, although your belief that there are no House haters is off imo, and I don't see how that would cause "food fights" as you say. Lastly, most repeat the same old stuff over and over regardless of what's going on.

To answer your last question, no. Nor was that my intention as I wasn't talking about him.

[TommyD4207]

I'm not even giving House his full minor league translation. I'm assuming he's only a .750 OPS hitter in the majors, even though his translated numbers suggest he might have an .800+.

I think you're assigning more weight to splits that may or not have meaning (i.e. what House has happened to hit while playing various positions) than is justified. Yes, House seemed to hit better as a 1B than as a DH or a C this year, but you're splitting his record into 100 or 180 at bat samples, and there are many reasons for variations in, essentially, 1/5th or 1/7th of a season.

It's based off of 450 AB's, like I said.

Catchers are only part of the whole stolen base equation. Pitchers have a rather large share of the burden.

And while you could argue that minor leaguers aren't as good at basestealing as their MLB counterparts, that is somewhat offset by the fact that major leaguers don't run as often.

In any case, it takes a very large difference in number steals and/or success rate to have a large impact on runs. Even if we penalized House or gave a bonus to Bako for his SB runs, we'd still be in the neighborhood of 10-12 runs difference.

You have to give Paul Bako the benefit of a lot of doubts to get him anywhere near JR House.

Still, what it goes back to is that House is playing in a league where guys are getting caught stealing at a much larger rate and he's still only 63-75% as good as the league average.

If it's a 1-2 win difference like you said in a prior post, that's not a 10-12 run difference, is it?

Did I actually just make a short post?

[RShack]

First off, you implied I do this often, which I don't think is the case... Lastly, most repeat the same old stuff over and over regardless of what's going on.

To answer your last question, no. Nor was that my intention as I wasn't talking about him.

Hey, we're cool. I never thought that *you* do it often, and I'm sorry if I conveyed that. Rather, it was a response to my own thought of "OK, how long until this thread includes name-calling? 5... 4... 3... 2... 1..." and, lo and behold, there was "House haters" right there on my screen. Let's call that a coincidence, and let it go at that. Is that OK?

[mweb]

Hey, we're cool. I never thought that *you* do it often, and I'm sorry if I conveyed that. Rather, it was a response to my own thought of "OK, how long until this thread includes name-calling? 5... 4... 3... 2... 1..." and, lo and behold, there was "House haters" right there on my screen. Let's call that a coincidence, and let it go at that. Is that OK?

No problem. I don't think calling someone a House hater is really name calling though, obviously it's calling someone a name, but so is House lover, and I don't think people would be offended by either.

[Moose Milligan]

So what will we do next year without JR House?

[rolliefingers]

So what will we do next year without JR House?

1.) Find a new undervalued player to advocate, or

2.) Listen to you make this same joke all season.

[DrungoHazewood]

So what will we do next year without JR House?

Lose another 90-100 games?

[TommyD4207]

Let me try to wrap things up a little better than I have in the past. I do admit to not being as clear and concise as I probably should have been, I'll try to clarify a little bit more. Apologies for the posts being long, I'm verbose by nature.

1. It's almost definitely a leap in faith to believe that House could maintain his success rate of throwing out runners in the major leagues. While his CS % would be adequate in the majors, it doesn't translate well really. When you're only 63%-75% as good as the league average, that doesn't bode well. Note, this is 63%-75% as good as the league average, not the best in the league. I find it very, very hard to believe that House would somehow play above any level that he's ever played and rise to a very good catcher. It's simply not rational in my opinion. Saying that you believe that he'd somehow become a much better catcher than he's been is akin to saying that Luis Hernandez will somehow become a much better hitter than he's ever been. It's completely illogical in my opinion.

Let's take a look at what House's stats would REALLY translate to. I'll use 63% as good as the league average as his floor, although I feel that I'm being all too nice in doing that considering just a year ago he was only 63% as good as the average AA catcher, but I'll do it just for argument's sake. If I were a betting man I'd probably bet on him being lower than that, but it's hard to pick a specific number that I'd do with, so I'll go with 63%. I'll give him 75% as his ceiling, even I though highly, highly doubt that he will ever be that good considering he'll be 28 next year and as a catcher, that's not exactly young.

We'll also take into account that in 2006, he played in a league where, on average, there was 1.06 steal attempts per game. He had on average 1.90 base stealers per game. We'll call this his floor even though I think he could very easily do a hell of a whole lot worse. In 2007, he played in a league where, on average, there was 1.07 steals per game. Mackus said that House appeared in 51 games this year, but we only have the data on 41 games. Assuming that he played all 9 innings of each game is probably a huge stretch, but I've been doing it just to try and remain as impartial as possible, but let's just say he did. If he did, that would come out to an average of 1.59 guys stealing per game. We'll call this his ceiling even though I think it's a huge stretch to assume that if he's that much worser than the average AAA catcher, he's automatically at the same ratio to the average big league catcher. I'd be shocked, I do mean shocked, if he ever approaches his ceiling. If you average that out to the American League averages you get:

FLOOR: The average CS % of an AL team is 270. 63% of that is a 170 CS %. That's what is "floor" is but by no means do I actually believe that is his worst case scenario. Just showing you how awful he could realistically be.

The average amount of steals per inning in the AL is .81 steals per game. If you adjust it to the same ratio, you get him at 1.45 steals per game.

The average team in the American League hard numbers are:

132 attempts, 97 successful, 35 caught, 230 CS %

House would come out to:

237 attempts, 201 successful, 36 caught, 150 CS %

The record stands for itself in that regard.

Bear in mind, that's if he caught every inning of every game. If he ever catches every inning of every game for any team, I'll light myself on fire. This is merely ratios and his ratios point out that he's significantly subpar.

Again, I believe I'm giving him a very, very generous floor, but the fact remains, those numbers are pretty awful. He could without question be a ton worse than that.

CEILING: Again, using the numbers that were used in the previous one for the league average in the AL.

As a refresher, the average team in the American League hard numbers are:

132 attempts, 97 successful, 35 caught, 230 CS %

His numbers, if he's granted a very handsome 75% as good as the average he comes out to:

240 attempts, 198 successful, 42 caught, 173 CS %

I think I've made my point.

2. It's a leap in faith to believe that House would maintain his hitting as a catcher that he has a 1B. Many players struggle to hit as well when they're playing catcher than they do when they're playing 1B. It's just common sense. The wear on your knees that playing behind the plate gives you is just absolute hell. Joe Mauer won the hitting title last year and everyone was astounded.

In 2006, his MLE OPS was 719, that's cumulative, including his production at 1B. If you take 84% figure that I believe Sean Smith is using (84% is a respectable number for the Texas League I'd say) you get a 665 OPS.

In 2007, his OPS as a catcher was 783. I'd say that around 88%ish is a good number to put for the IL, which comes out to 689 OPS. Still, not all that impressive.

3. I would also like to once again touch on how people say that in the very limited time that people saw House that they have said, in this thread no less, that House looked fine out there. Well, in the limited time that House batted his hitting resembled awful. He put up an OBP that would make Brandon Fahey and Luis Hernandez blush. I am not by any means at all saying that that's House's ceiling as a hitter. Far, far from it. All that I am saying is that I find it to be rather ludicrous to base assumptions on his defense on so little of a sample size. When we have minor league numbers to reflect on that could include up to 934 innings, to look at 46 and conclude an entirely different outcome is borderline crazy if you ask me.

4. Finally, I would like to reiterate my point that this is not a campaign to release House or to give Bako a contract extension. Some people have misinterpreted me on this, analyzing Bako as a 2008 option. That's about as far from my point as you could possibly get.

My point is that everyone, including in this thread, is hitting the final nail in the coffin that House will most definitely be a good back-up catcher when a whole wide range of factors have not been considered. Just last year, he was only 63% as good as the LEAGUE AVERAGE AA catcher. If that's not a harsh indictment, I don't know what is. This year, he was only 75% as good as the league average AAA catcher. To believe that he would maintain his CS % in spite of playing in a league that throws out runners with a lot more authority due in large part to the quality of the players is pretty crazy in my opinion.

I have very, very high doubts that House could ever be a passable catcher in MLB. In 2006, the Houston Astros organization lost hope on him when they promoted him to AAA. In spite of being there for 31 games, he received only 6 AB's out of the catcher position or roughly 1.5 games as a catcher. That tells me that they essentially gave up.

I have a very big theory that Dave Trembely recommended that the Orioles get JR House. A minor league FA flyer guy that Trembley had known for nearly a decade. I'm guessing that he probably assumed that Gary Allenson, a former big league catcher, would be able to gauge his quality for him down at Norfolk. When House did come up, he wasn't given regular time from the catcher position. I guess you could guess that this is all just one big vendetta that the Orioles organization had against House and that Trembley all of a sudden was determined to keep someone he had a very close relationship out, but I don't buy it. This leads me to my final point.

5. When it comes to intangibles, it's pretty apparent that Paul Bako has them. I don't pretend and never will pretend that I know more about the pitcher-catcher interaction relationship than Leo Mazzone. I'd be very surprised if anyone does. There are plenty, and I do mean plenty of people in the Orioles organization whose credibility you could question. I'm not one of those "they're professionals, they know what they're doing" advocates, so that's certainly not my perspective.

If Mazzone believes that House isn't suitable to catch pitchers in the majors from an intangible standpoint and Gary Allenson doesn't believe that House is good enough to catch from a mechanical standpoint and his SB numbers are pretty pitiful, then I'm really pretty much convinced.

[JTrea81]

I think we are forgetting something here, just because a catcher allows a stolen base, doesn't mean that run is going to score. As long as our pitchers pitch well enough to strand those runners, it won't matter how many stolen bases he allows.

Gregg Zaun only threw out 15.1% (73 SB 13 caught) of the runners this season and he's a starter. I don't see anyone saying he can't catch in the majors. Throwing out runners isn't everything for a catcher.

As far as Bako goes he allowed 8 PB in 421 innings caught, easily the worst performance by a backup catcher in the majors last season. Also out of 35 attempts, he only caught 7 for a 20% CS rate. So Bako's offense wasn't the only detriment to this team, his defense was horrible as well. I don't care about his intangibles. They can't overcome his horrid performance both offensively and defensively.

I think somebody mentioned LaRue on here being pretty horrible offensively, but at least he was "a catch and throw" guy, nailing 35% of the runners and only allowing 2 PB in his 474 innings.