JR House

[TommyD4207]

I think we are forgetting something here, just because a catcher allows a stolen base, doesn't mean that run is going to score. As long as our pitchers pitch well enough to strand those runners, it won't matter how many stolen bases he allows.

Gregg Zaun only threw out 15.1% (73 SB 13 caught) of the runners this season and he's a starter. I don't see anyone saying he can't catch in the majors. Throwing out runners isn't everything for a catcher.

As far as Bako goes he allowed 8 PB in 421 innings caught, easily the worst performance by a backup catcher in the majors last season. Also out of 35 attempts, he only caught 7 for a 20% CS rate. So Bako's offense wasn't the only detriment to this team, his defense was horrible as well. I don't care about his intangibles. They can't overcome his horrid performance both offensively and defensively.

I think somebody mentioned LaRue on here being pretty horrible offensively, but at least he was "a catch and throw" guy, nailing 35% of the runners and only allowing 2 PB in his 474 innings.

You lost me here. First you say that there's more to catching than simply SB's which I have stated repeatedly. Then, you say you don't care about intangibles. Errr, is it PB's that are the world? In my mind the order to rank 'em is:

1) SB %

2) Intangibles

3) PB's

4) Fielding dribblers and popups

4 is definitely pretty distant because popups are standardly pretty routine and dribblers are somewhat rare, and unless you're Joe Mauer, there's probably not a world of difference between each catcher I'd say.

If you look in my original post, I did a run expectancy matrix in which the runs were accounted for.

Again, the way I see it is divided into 4 different parts:

1) Leo Mazzone believes that Paul Bako is good for the young pitchers. In a season that is COMPLETELY lost, where there's no shot at competing, fine. If the only other alternative is someone who's 80 years old (Castillo) or a guy who has runners going on him at will, fine. I will lambaste the front office for not getting somebody better, but if you're at that point in the season, like MacPhail and Trembley were where they given their positions midseason and you want to stick with Bako over House, I'm fine with that.

2) Gary Allenson is a former big league catcher and he was the manager for Norfolk. He didn't put House into the catcher role full-time. Was this because he for some reason hated him? I doubt it. Was it because House was still failing to throw out baserunners, only 75% as good as the league average? Probably. Did he probably scout out the other parts of his game? I'm guessing. Did he tell Trembley and the front office what he thought? I'd be shocked if that wasn't the case.

3) House consistently has well above the league average amount of guys attempting to steal on him and he consistently throws out well below the league average amount of guys stealing. Those are two very, very bad signs.

4) Dave Trembley has a very good relationship with House and you would think that if there was any favoritism that could be had, it would be done right there. I really doubt that he just decided on a whim that Bako was just a spectacular catcher.

[Ned from York]

What's the history with House and Trems that made the good relationship? Just curious.

It just blows my mine that House is good enough to the IL all-star catcher but can't get a backup job over Paul freaking Bako! Like everybody says, concerned that much about the steals?....then play him against teams that don't steal that much, play him only when we have LH on the mound, play him when we have a pitcher good at holding runners, play him when Bedard pitches and it doesn't matter. There are so many ways to make it work.

[OldNewGuy]

After the September callups, a lot of us wanted to see House play. What was there to loose? A couple of more games. We might have gotten the number 1 draft choice.

If he was awful as a defensive catcher, he would have been quickly exposed as the un catcher he is purported to be. End of discussion. Release him, send him back to Norfolk and off the 40 man roster. Get someone else next winter or extend Bako.

In the few chances he got, he didn't look horrible. People didn't run wild on him. He even threw someone out! Instead of giving him every chance to fail, we got more Bako, and Gustavo Molina, for gosh sake!

We (the fans) just wanted a look/see at the MLB level. If the "professionals" knew he wasn't any good, why bring him up? He should have been left to rot with Knott.

[RShack]

What's the history with House and Trems that made the good relationship? Just curious.

Because of where they live, and for reasons that have nothing to do with his job, DT's known him since he was 19 or so...

It just blows my mine that House is good enough to the IL all-star catcher but can't get a backup job over Paul freaking Bako!

I understand.

When you use stats, it helps to be clear about what you're doing. Are you looking at stats to confirm what you already think? Or are you hoping they might tell you some things that maybe you can't see without them (possibly including things that might be counter-intuitive and which therefore blow your mind)?

BTW, I don't think anyone's saying that Bako's better... some are only saying that, in balance, neither is JR...

[Ned from York]

Well if you can't see that House is a much better option than Bako......

[Tony-OH]

Watching Tommy and Jon go at it is like two heavy weights throwing roundhouses...I'm just going to stay out of the way.

My two cents though, Bako is terrible, House at least brought about the possibility of a decent bat. I probably would have kept him on the 40-man over the winter since I'm big fan of having guys who can hit a little, play catcher (even if it's as a third catcher) and also play a few other positions. At worse he was minor league depth that we don't have.

Great points all around though...

[RShack]

From my own ring-side seat, it doesn't even seem like a fair fight...

In one corner, we have TommyD... and in the other corner we have a plethora of various opponents, who are playing tag-team and rooting each other on... yet TommyD has kept his composure... and has deftly countered each and every blow with a potent combination of stats and (gulp!) sound reasoning.

And, while others are saying "but, but, but...", TommyD doesn't even seem to be breathing hard... (and if he secretly is breathing hard, I suspect it's because he's hurt himself by biting his tongue ;-)

If we're scoring this thing, how many rounds has it been? And in how many of those rounds has TommyD been out-pointed?

[mweb]

From my own ring-side seat, it doesn't even seem like a fair fight...

In one corner, we have TommyD... and in the other corner we have a plethora of various opponents, who are playing tag-team and rooting each other on... yet TommyD has kept his composure... and has deftly countered each and every blow with a potent combination of stats and (gulp!) sound reasoning.

And, while others are saying "but, but, but...", TommyD doesn't even seem to be breathing hard... (and if he secretly is breathing hard, I suspect it's because he's hurt himself by biting his tongue ;-)

If we're scoring this thing, how many rounds has it been? And in how many of those rounds has TommyD been out-pointed?

Well you've been on Tommy's side, but I guess you're right, he hasn't had any help. Of course you think he's done better since you agree with him. However, the equations he used have had some flaws, and that's been pointed out. The first equation was especially flawed, and we now know that the .696 OPS House would need to match Bako is not accurate. And even if it is, there isn't a good reason to think House would likely fall short of that. I don't think it's close on which side has the better points, but of course I'm a biased participant. Regardless, there have been good points on both sides and it's been a better House thread than most.

[rolliefingers]

From my own ring-side seat, it doesn't even seem like a fair fight...

In one corner, we have TommyD... and in the other corner we have a plethora of various opponents, who are playing tag-team and rooting each other on... yet TommyD has kept his composure... and has deftly countered each and every blow with a potent combination of stats and (gulp!) sound reasoning.

And, while others are saying "but, but, but...", TommyD doesn't even seem to be breathing hard... (and if he secretly is breathing hard, I suspect it's because he's hurt himself by biting his tongue ;-)

If we're scoring this thing, how many rounds has it been? And in how many of those rounds has TommyD been out-pointed?

Could it be that some of us (read: me) are tired of making an obvious argument for the millionth time?

Way to hide under TommyD's skirt, too; at least he's made attempts to defend his position with numbers, whereas you want everyone else to do your research for you.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Tommy first off thank you for all of that research. The main points have been well argued but there's a part of the debate I believe deserves more attention. I think we're overemphasizing the deficiency given the role of a backup catcher. Since they don't play every day we can pick and choose when to use them. I did a lot of work to put this together so hopefully this information isn't readily available!

TEAM SB CS CS%

ANA 107 31 22.5%

ARI 88 42 32.3%

ATL 98 30 23.4%

BAL 109 32 22.7%

BOS 107 32 23.0%

CHC 116 24 17.1%

CHW 98 23 19.0%

CIN 88 31 26.1%

CLE 93 46 33.1%

COL 96 25 20.7%

DET 73 31 29.8%

FLA 94 33 26.0%

HOU 84 28 25.0%

KCR 70 26 27.1%

LAD 96 46 32.4%

MIL 99 24 19.5%

MIN 65 41 38.7%

NYM 105 29 21.6%

NYY 136 44 24.4%

OAK 101 26 20.5%

PHI 84 39 31.7%

PIT 110 35 24.1%

SDP 189 20 9.6%

SEA 69 45 39.5%

SFG 77 33 30.0%

STL 58 34 37.0%

TBD 96 44 31.4%

TEX 98 47 32.4%

TOR 134 24 15.2%

WSN 80 37 31.6%

The bolded teams do not steal very often and aren't very good when they do steal. We played Seattle and Minnesota, the two worst stealing teams in MLB, 16 times this season. Washingon and Detroit another 11 times. That was 27 great opportunities to start JR House at catcher where his weakness would be minimized.

If used properly I think House could be a valuable piece for our team.

[olehippi]

I wonder if anyone in the FO agonizes through stats looking for magical figures that prove so-and-so MiL player will be successful in the ML ?

I have visions of a bespectacled, nerdish geek hunched over a computer in some dark, dank corner of the warehouse, diligently working, a printer spewing out sheets of data which will be placed on MacPhail's or Flanagan's desk.....and never read.

[rolliefingers]

If used properly I think House could be a valuable piece for our team.

This is the essential truth here, and I can't believe it's still being debated.

House is not a stellar defensive catcher. But if you can "hide him" against slower teams, it's worth it to get his bat in the lineup.

Again, I don't know how this is even debatable.

[Sports Guy]

Well you've been on Tommy's side, but I guess you're right, he hasn't had any help. Of course you think he's done better since you agree with him. However, the equations he used have had some flaws, and that's been pointed out. The first equation was especially flawed, and we now know that the .696 OPS House would need to match Bako is not accurate. And even if it is, there isn't a good reason to think House would likely fall short of that. I don't think it's close on which side has the better points, but of course I'm a biased participant. Regardless, there have been good points on both sides and it's been a better House thread than most.

Right...Tommy's post was long and well written but it was chock full of mis-information...Long post doesn't equal accurate post.

It seems like when people on here make these long posts and put in stats, graphs and things like that, people get all warm and fuzzy over the idea that they put that much time into it.

However, that feeling should go away when it is pointed out that a big part of the argument is extremely flawed.

[baltimoriole]

just because someone has nearly 50,000 posts on this board and spends every waking minute at the hangout doesn't make them right either.

[TommyD4207]

1. Well, as far as signing Bako for 2007, I agree that that was for the most part a mistake. Well, signing him and not anyone else was a mistake. They should've signed another backup catcher that could hit the broadside of a barn and not had the Boston Marathon going on behind the pitcher. Neither is true for either House or Bako.

As for keeping House on the 40 man roster, I have no objections to that whatsoever. As I've shown, he hits well as a 1B, his problem is his hitting as a catcher. Give him a role where he rotates between 1B/DH and possibly see if he can play a corner in the OF. Keep him rolling around. I'm not sure if he's an everyday player, but he'd quite possibly be a guy worth keeping. And like I said, having him around would keep him as a 3rd catcher so we don't have Raul Chavez.

Bako was brought in this year for 2 reasons I'm sure. One, because Leo Mazzone believes that he has the intangibles to work with a young pitching staff. From what we've read, he's been a valued addition as a battery partner and clubhouse guy. Secondly, he was brought in because he had 310 CS % against competition. Together, they represent a sound defensive catcher. This year, he didn't look good at all throwing guys out and he had a pretty poor CS %. Is he done as a catcher? I think so. He's getting old, that happens, and like we saw with Javy Lopez, often times suddenly. If he's back with the Orioles next year, I will be livid. I have no idea why people insinuate that I want him back next year, but I don't. He got by having very, very few guys steal on him based on reputation I'm sure. In the past, 2005 and 2006 he did a very good job of throwing guys out. If you throw in what he did with helping the young pitchers, I thank him for his service and let him leave.

2. mweb, my asserting that House was 50% below average of the league average in the IL was proved to be wrong. That was a simple brain fart on my part. The 696 OPS was Drungo's equation and from what I can see looking back on the thread, nobody's refuted it. And the reason that he wouldn't fall short of it is his 450 AB's that he showed that he hits significantly worse as a catcher. 450 AB's is solid enough proof to me.

3. rollie, correct me if I'm wrong, but has what I've shown been shown around here before in the past? From what I've seen in the endless House debates, none of it has?

4. IHM, that's an interesting point. Let's take a look at those teams and go with House being 63-75% below average of said team (I think that's reasonable enough) and having a ton more guys stealing on him per game. Like I mentioned, in 2006 the average for the Texas League was 1.06 and he had 1.90 guys stealing on him per game while in 2007 the average in the IL was 1.07 and he had 1.59 guys going on him per game. With that in mind...

Minnesota averaged about .65 steal attempts per game. But if you increase it by the ratio between the league average catcher and House for 2006, we're assuming they'd be stealing 1.17 times per game. A lot less than what he typically has going on him, which is typically a ton, but still above the league average. That's his floor.

If we go with his ceiling, he'd have .97 guys going on him per game. Still above the league average.

If we look at their CS %, he has a floor of a 244 CS % and a ceiling of a 290 CS %. So if he's played against Minnesota, a pretty pitiful stealing team from what I can tell, he wouldn't kill us.

As for Detroit, they averaged .64 steals per game. Again, you go with his ceiling they'd be stealing 1.15 times per game. For his floor, he would have .95 guys going on him.

If we look at their CS % he has a floor of a 187 CS % and a ceiling of a 224 CS %.

I could go on and on and if somebody wants me to, and if I find the time later, I will, but the point is is that he'd still allow just about a steal per game and he wouldn't be able to take advantage of even the Twins stealing. Like Drungo said, if it's 70% or less, you're giving outs back to the Orioles in essence. House falls short of that mark. From what I can tell, that was a given when facing the Twins, House would not be able to even achieve that given.

We also have to realize that backup catcher is a role in which it's very tough to just say "well you're only going to catch this team every so often, enjoy that part of the bench in meantime." Catchers never and I do mean never play all 162 games in a season. There's too much that can happen and they need to much of a rest in between starts. In this day and age with the unbalanced schedule, it'd be very very difficult to give a starting catcher the correct amount of breathers and only have the backup catching certain teams. You'd almost certainly be keeping the full-time guy out there for weeks at a time without rest. That cannot be ignored. Good plan in theory, I just don't think it's possible.

3. rollie, the reason that it's "debatable" is that since House has shown that he's not capable of throwing out even the worst of stealing teams, such as the Twins who on average gave away outs when they attempted to steal. Giving a team that's awful at stealing a chance doesn't constitute "hiding."

And besides, why should we go with House when it's entirely easier to find somebody else that could actually throw a guy out every once and a while and not kill you with his bat. Both House and Bako are poor options as a backup catcher. House as a 3rd catcher in which he rotates around and only sees the catcher's position entirely rarely, that's not a bad option at all.

We also have the issue of House not hitting all that well as a catcher. Now, does his bat bring him down to Bako levels? It does not. At worst, he's probably about 100 points of OPS above him. At worst though, he's also SIGNIFICANTLY, and I do mean significantly worse than Bako at throwing out runners.

What I am unaware of is why everyone is saying that it's such a foregone conclusion that House is a good option at backup catcher. This like the Luis Hernandez argument to be honest. You have a guy that represents an upgrade in one area (though we're not sure how much due to the little among due to the shortcomings of defensive stats for SS's in the minors and the fact that House hit significantly worse as a catcher in the minors) and a known downgrade in one area (every sane person says Tejada is a better hitter than Hernandez and every sane person says that Bako is a better guy to have behind the plate than House). What the point is is that, what everyone's so logically pointed out in those threads, is that there are plenty of guys out there that would be a better alternative than the status quo. Tejada should be traded, Hernandez should not be the OD 2008 SS. Bako should be gone, House should not be #2 backup catcher. Get somebody else with relative ease.

4. Sports Guy, in what way, shape, or form was my OP "chock full of mis-information." That is an insult and is simply not true. The only thing that I've been called out as incorrect on was saying House was significantly worse than the league average in the IL, which, believe it or not, was not in the OP. People inquired about the CS % which was not explicitly given in the OP, but there was no inaccuracies. mweb said that my equation in there was incorrect, but he'd have to take that up with Drungo being that he was the one that created that equation, not me.

Here is my best post on this thread by far IMO:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1065159&postcount=115

That's probably the best place to start if you disagree with me.