JR House

[RShack]

Actually essentially none of the objections to my actual argument have been posed. I've spent the last few pages reminding everyone that I'm not proposing that we give Paul Bako a contract extension and apparently you still believe that I'm saying that Bako is a better option. That's not what this argument is about. This argument is actually showing how close to the awful Paul Bako House really is. Let's address, shall we:

1) You don't have a problem with having a backup catcher that is anywhere between 63%-75% below average in catching base stealers and has anywhere from a 1.06 per game to 1.90 per game steal attempts to a 1.07 per game to 1.59 per game steal attempts as your catcher?

2) Who in 2006 had his OPS be translated to 665 OPS as catcher in MLB.

3) Who had somebody who had a good relationship STILL not catch him?

You would just stick with him as your primary back up and not go out and get anyone better?

I imagine that this has been frustrating. On the bright side, you have not only provided everyone with a good example of combining stats with sound reasoning, you have also succeeded in changing the basic tenor of the discussion. Before, JR was mainly a prominent tool for people to rag on the FO for being morons... because it was "obvious" that JR would be a net upgrade over Bako, to the point where it was "ridiculous" to think otherwise. (For all the claims that people rely on stats to think scientifically about things, they really just shopped a couple prefab numbers off the page and stopped there.) Now, however, people are advocating for JR on the grounds that he's "probably about as good as Bako" (!!!) and if that's not an example of "damning with faint praise", I don't know what is. Unless you're JR's cousin, I'd call that a victory for your effort to encourage people to actually think about it. It might not be a lasting effect, because people do dig in, but still...

ps: The main thing that I wish was different is that most-everybody-but-you is pretty much being oppositional, like it's a win/lose thing. Like John Lennon, I can imagine a different world, one in which people like you and Drungo *cooperate* to find the best way to look at things... with each one *helping* the other one, and jointly arriving at a better outlook. Sadly, it appears to be the nature of message boards (not just this one, but in general) to encourage people to dig-in and adopt a me-vs-you attitude... so that things are generally much more of an "argument" than a "discussion". I admire the way you have refused to do that (so far, anyway ;-)

pps: There are several things I saw about how JR went about his C'ing business that I liked. I posted about them at the time. For his sake, I hope he has some success somewhere. It doesn't matter to me where though, because as I've said, I think this issue is small potatoes.

[TommyD4207]

The ML hitters don't run as much as minor league guys...So, i am not sure what the numbers will be...I have always said to play House against the teams that don't run often..Teams like NY, Boston, Toronto, Oakland, etc...You can easily plan that out.

They do not, but luckily we can get rates of how much the league average of guys going in those leagues. As I've stated repeatedly, House has had anywhere from 178% to 150% the same amount of guys stealing on him from the league average.

I've also already discussed the possibility of ONLY playing him against certain teams. You can read that here:

We also have to realize that backup catcher is a role in which it's very tough to just say "well you're only going to catch this team every so often, enjoy that part of the bench in meantime." Catchers never and I do mean never play all 162 games in a season. There's too much that can happen and they need to much of a rest in between starts. In this day and age with the unbalanced schedule, it'd be very very difficult to give a starting catcher the correct amount of breathers and only have the backup catching certain teams. You'd almost certainly be keeping the full-time guy out there for weeks at a time without rest. That cannot be ignored. Good plan in theory, I just don't think it's possible.

Way to look at one year!

And you...have only looked at one year yourself.

Unless you've got statistical proof that he has hit as a catcher decently for more than one year, please cut the condescent and stick to the issues.

Who cares? That guy also thinks Luis Hernandez and Tike Redman could be everyday players. DT puts an overemphasis on defense.

I'd be shocked if he honestly believes that they're everyday players. He might have insinuated that in an interview, but that was only to remain politically correct I'm sure. You're also ignoring the fact that they're good friends. I find it hard to believe that he would do that if it was only a marginal difference or some have implied he's actually better, but to each their own. You're also forgetting a few guys in this party:

It all goes back to 3 people's opinions, count 'em 3, when it comes to his skills as a catcher. Leo Mazzone believing that a guy like Paul Bako is better in terms of intangibles. Intangibles are hard to quantify but to say "I don't care about intangibles" is off base if you ask me. I think that if you're dealing with a young staff, which is what I hope we do next year, go with youngsters instead of overpaid FA pitchers, than I would want a guy who's good with intangibles and works well with the pitching coach and can settle a pitcher down and has good rapport and can call a good game. Not Bako, but someone else that meets those qualifications.

The number 2 one is Gary Allenson, the Norfolk manager that is a former major league catcher himself. I trust that he would be able to tell us all the other intricacies of being a catcher. Allenson was once a former major league catcher. The people of this board, well, weren't. Again I'm certainly not a "they're professionals, they know what they're doing" kind of guy. If it were Jim Beattie/Mike Flanagan/Jim Duquette saying that, I'd be a ton more hesitant.

Dave Trembley not playing him and I believe that's most telling. He said that he really, really wanted House to be up with the big club. I think that's mostly due to them being friends and the fact that he's proven he can hit well as a 1B. He played him as a non-catcher. He barely played him as a catcher. That's very telling if you ask me.

Again, to those saying that they wanted to see him up here to "give him a chance" as has been mentioned he caught in 50+ games this year, a bunch last year and they saw him in spring training. They know what he's capable of. They've seen enough of him. I don't believe that the Orioles should put House as a catcher in the majors more often, probably to the detriment of the team, just to prove anything to the fans.

Okay, maybe it wasn't all that short and concise, but I tried!

If we could find a better back up catcher who could give us a 720+ OPS, i would prefer that guy to House....Those guys are probably few and far between though.

Could those guys be anywhere from 63%-75% below average throwing guys out and have 150%-178% more than the league average attempting to steal on him as well?

[Herbie]

Let me reinforce my point one more time, this time I'll try to consolidate it into a more short, concise post. No promises though.

1. This is not a Bako vs. House argument at all. This is just showing that it's no foregone conclusion that House is a good option at backup catcher. In my opinion, people looking at it as if it's House vs. Bako is looking at it as the old Orioles FO all these years have looked at it. You go into the offseason with two poor options and act like they're the only two players in the world that could possibly fill that role.

I think we all realize that Bako is a terrible option for 2008. I am merely pointing out Bako as a comparison. House might be a marginal improvement over him, he might not be. He shouldn't be the only guy considered though. Not remotely. That, I believe, should not be debatable.

2. 450 AB's in the minors show House to be a significantly worse hitter as a catcher than 1B. It's pretty much common sense that he wouldn't be AS good, but it I don't think anybody really took into account that it'd be that little.

3. I think everyone is putting too much emphasis on this year's stats, and forgetting 2006 way too much. This is more like the Jeremy Guthrie argument in which everyone here discounts Guthrie's season, nobody really believes he's a 3.75 ERA pitcher and that he's a 4-5 starter on a good team or a bullpen/spot starter guy. If Guthrie is receiving that harsh of an evaluation based on years past, I think that House should be evaluated on a similar grading scale, which is what I believe that I'm doing.

4. It all goes back to 3 people's opinions, count 'em 3, when it comes to his skills as a catcher. Leo Mazzone believing that a guy like Paul Bako is better in terms of intangibles. Intangibles are hard to quantify but to say "I don't care about intangibles" is off base if you ask me. I think that if you're dealing with a young staff, which is what I hope we do next year, go with youngsters instead of overpaid FA pitchers, than I would want a guy who's good with intangibles and works well with the pitching coach and can settle a pitcher down and has good rapport and can call a good game. Not Bako, but someone else that meets those qualifications.

The number 2 one is Gary Allenson, the Norfolk manager that is a former major league catcher himself. I trust that he would be able to tell us all the other intricacies of being a catcher. Allenson was once a former major league catcher. The people of this board, well, weren't. Again I'm certainly not a "they're professionals, they know what they're doing" kind of guy. If it were Jim Beattie/Mike Flanagan/Jim Duquette saying that, I'd be a ton more hesitant.

Dave Trembley not playing him and I believe that's most telling. He said that he really, really wanted House to be up with the big club. I think that's mostly due to them being friends and the fact that he's proven he can hit well as a 1B. He played him as a non-catcher. He barely played him as a catcher. That's very telling if you ask me.

Again, to those saying that they wanted to see him up here to "give him a chance" as has been mentioned he caught in 50+ games this year, a bunch last year and they saw him in spring training. They know what he's capable of. They've seen enough of him. I don't believe that the Orioles should put House as a catcher in the majors more often, probably to the detriment of the team, just to prove anything to the fans.

Okay, maybe it wasn't all that short and concise, but I tried!

It's possible that Trembley was just overreacting to his own press clippings. He came on board as manager talking about fundamentals, defense and pitching being the way to win. Then he suffered the 30 run game and 11 run inning - I don't imagine that was very pleasant for him. It was probably pretty embarrassing. Maybe as a result he went a little overboard on the defense thing. He sure found plenty of opportunities to get Luis Hernandez at- bats. He kept playing Payton to the bitter end despite the robust numbers he was putting up. Even Gustavo managed to get a couple starts. Meanwhile, offense first players like Knott and House went almost unnoticed. There were games where Tejada DH'ed with Hernandez at shortstop. If you really are trying to win then House at DH and Tejada at short gives you a much better chance. Huff kept starting, even when leftys started. A better manager would focus on what his players can do, not what they can't, and utilize the whole roster. Instead Trembley slavishly follows a hoary old cliche. There is a good chance that Bako will be back, Hernandez will be playing short and the Baltimore Orioles will lose 100 games next year.

[mweb]

2. mweb, my asserting that House was 50% below average of the league average in the IL was proved to be wrong. That was a simple brain fart on my part. The 696 OPS was Drungo's equation and from what I can see looking back on the thread, nobody's refuted it. And the reason that he wouldn't fall short of it is his 450 AB's that he showed that he hits significantly worse as a catcher. 450 AB's is solid enough proof to me.

Well the .696 OPS came from your original equation correct? Well that original equation does not seem to be accurate. See posts #40, 79, 80. You've since countered with some subjective stuff, which is fine, but doesn't make the .696 right.

450 ab's doesn't prove anything, and he did hit decently in a pitching environment even though he caught most of the time this year. And like SG said, it's not like he'd be catching everyday, it's be more like 20% of the time, therefore he wouldn't get beat up like an everyday catcher would. That's the best reason for a catcher not hitting as well when playing there, and that's eliminated.

I'll say once again, I'm not guaranteeing House would have a OPS of .700 or higher, but I do think it's likely, and I do think his upside is much much higher than Bako's, and his downside isn't much lower than Bako's. Plus, he young and cheap. It makes no sense to have Bako over House imo, and he should have been given more of a chance this year to show if he is up for the task. Now, that doesn't mean House is great or anything, if they go out and get a better backup, wonderful, I'm all for it.

[mweb]

Ok and in the AL Guthrie put up a 3.75 ERA. Looking at one year of playing is not logical, you know that.

I am reaching? I am merely calling it as I see it. You may notice that in this entire thread, I have never once called Bako better than House. I have said that the improvement is nowhere near as big as it's been said to be here and that's not as irrefutable and that we should go out and get someone better for next year. I have backed up all of that. If you object to any of that, please let me know and I'd be happy to discuss that with you.

So how does 450 ab's prove anything? That's no more logical.

[TommyD4207]

So how does 450 ab's prove anything? That's no more logical.

It's the only data that's available, is it not?

[mweb]

It's the only data that's available, is it not?

That's not the only data available, it's the only data you choose to call important. I think all of his hitting stats are important regardless of position, I also recognize that other factors besides catching could have led to the weaker numbers, and I know there is a big difference concerning wear and tear on one's body from catching 20% of the time vs 80% of the time. Do you have any data on his offense when he only has to catch about 20% of the time?

Is it possible that he just doesn't hit well when catching regardless of the workload back there, sure, I will allow for that possibility, but I'm more inclined to think it doesn't matter much.

[mweb]

BTW, your only using his offensive numbers at C from the last 2 years right? If so, that's obviously not all the data, maybe it's all the available data to us, not sure where you got those splits from, but I'm guessing he was very productive when catching in 2000 based on his overall stats and how many games he played at C that year.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm thinking this thread could go the entire postseason.

[Sports Guy]

Mweb...2 money posts...Well said.

Tommy uses one year to prove his argument but discounts the other year and then, on top of that, just ignores his good hitting stats overall.

[TommyD4207]

That's not the only data available, it's the only data you choose to call important. I think all of his hitting stats are important regardless of position, I also recognize that other factors besides catching could have led to the weaker numbers, and I know there is a big difference concerning wear and tear on one's body from catching 20% of the time vs 80% of the time. Do you have any data on his offense when he only has to catch about 20% of the time?

Is it possible that he just doesn't hit well when catching regardless of the workload back there, sure, I will allow for that possibility, but I'm more inclined to think it doesn't matter much.

Well, I think you just made my point. Catching causes a lot of wear and tear, that is a fact. It hurts a lot of hitters. It's a matter of how much it affects them and that's where that comes in. All I have data on is just 2006 and 2007.

You can believe that if you'd like, my opinion is otherwise, an opinion is just that, an opinion. We only have that much time to gauge off of.

BTW, your only using his offensive numbers at C from the last 2 years right? If so, that's obviously not all the data, maybe it's all the availbale date to us, not sure where you got those splits from, but I'm guessing he was very productive when catching in 2000 based on his overall stats and how many games he played at C that year.

Of course it's the only data available to US. I'm sure the people of the front offices and have that stuff and apparently, he's only caught 80+ games once in his career. Food for thought.

Mweb...2 money posts...Well said.

Tommy uses one year to prove his argument but discounts the other year and then, on top of that, just ignores his good hitting stats overall.

Do you always make up stuff that supposedly the other side says and mock them for something they haven't said and just make it personal? I'm finding it increasingly difficult to discuss this with you. I've tried to be as respectful as possible but...

I haven't ignored his good hitting stats at all. Honestly, have you read my posts? Honest question, because you've just highlighted points of my posts at certain times and we've gone over certain parts of my posts without ever covering everything at any given point.

[Sports Guy]

Do you always make up stuff that supposedly the other side says and mock them for something they haven't said and just make it personal? I'm finding it increasingly difficult to discuss this with you. I've tried to be as respectful as possible but...

I haven't ignored his good hitting stats at all. Honestly, have you read my posts? Honest question, because you've just highlighted points of my posts at certain times and we've gone over certain parts of my posts without ever covering everything at any given point.

Your contention is that you don't think he would hit that well as a backup catcher, at least not enough to justify his defense.

Well, you are basing that on one year...You are ignoring his other numbers and this past year.

Amazing you would say differently.

Have i read everything? No....But i have read enough to know what your points are and i think they are wrong.

House is the best option in the organization to be the back up next year and i would take him over most backup catchers out there.

As i said, if you can find the guy who plays better defense and gives you a 720+ OPS...Great, sign him(assuming you don't lose a pick)....If not, pissing away money and a roster spot on some scrub like Bako, Osik or others like that is just stupid...House is clearly the better option out of those guys.

[TommyD4207]

Your contention is that you don't think he would hit that well as a backup catcher, at least not enough to justify his defense.

Well, you are basing that on one year...You are ignoring his other numbers and this past year.

Amazing you would say differently.

Have i read everything? No....But i have read enough to know what your points are and i think they are wrong.

House is the best option in the organization to be the back up next year and i would take him over most backup catchers out there.

As i said, if you can find the guy who plays better defense and gives you a 720+ OPS...Great, sign him(assuming you don't lose a pick)....If not, pissing away money and a roster spot on some scrub like Bako, Osik or others like that is just stupid...House is clearly the better option out of those guys.

How have I based anything on "just one year" if you've actually read my posts (at least you do concede you haven't read everything, although that was obvious) you would notice that I've continually noted his ceiling and floor. I've continually said that it's not out of the box to suspect that he'd do significantly worse as a catcher in the majors.

Remember, all that I've done is just give percentages. 63%-75% below average at throwing guys out and 150%-178% more runners per game. If he's that much below average of minor league guys, how much worse could he be when you have big league catchers, many that are top notch. It could be very ugly and in case you haven't noticed, when he DOES sniff the big leagues, he hardly ever catches.

Look, what it comes down to is YOU have only looked at one season's worth of stats. You have not acknowledged his last season's stats. If you look at my original post, I say he had a sub 800 OPS in the minors and I assumed that the translation was 88% and gave the translation. I also gave the translation for the 2006 one, but it seems to me that you're kind of looking for confrontation a bit so you kind of key'd up on that one.

His "other numbers" besides this year would date back to 2004, where he caught 63 games and then 2002 where he caught 20 and we're all of the sudden back to when he's only 22 years old. That's a bit of a stretch to say the least. I'm putting emphasis on his 2006 numbers because it's the only other thing that's out there. We have 2007 where he hit good, not great. We have 2006 where he hit well. You automatically assume that he's the 2007 guy for 2008. I am not so much. I am not convinced of anything nor I am throwing out any seasons. You would know that much if you actually read my posts to their entirety, which you've admitted to not doing. If you were reading my posts, you would notice that my only purpose was to show that there IS a ton of reason to doubt that House is a good option at backup catcher. In fact, I would be very surprised if he ends up as a #2 backup next year somewhere.

If you haven't read everything, then you don't know all that I've argued and you certainly haven't gotten my points down. You've continually accused me of saying things that I haven't said and you continually bring up Bako. Bako was only there as a reference point to how close he was to terrible when you factor in everything.

As for finding a guy who plays better defense, that's not difficult. God knows you only have to be league average in order to be significantly better than him. In fact most backup catchers ARE above average because they're out there mainly to work with pitchers. A lot of times they'll spend time in the bullpen and they a lot of times do bullpen sessions because the full-time guy is too tired. They're there to build rapport with the pitcher in a lot of ways. Bako supposedly is very good at that. If you're going to trust anyone on that, Leo Mazzone would probably be the guy. In year's past, Bako had done a very good job at defense. This year, not so much.

[Sports Guy]

How have I based anything on "just one year" if you've actually read my posts (at least you do concede you haven't read everything, although that was obvious) you would notice that I've continually noted his ceiling and floor. I've continually said that it's not out of the box to suspect that he'd do significantly worse as a catcher in the majors.

Remember, all that I've done is just give percentages. 63%-75% below average at throwing guys out and 150%-178% more runners per game. If he's that much below average of minor league guys, how much worse could he be when you have big league catchers, many that are top notch. It could be very ugly and in case you haven't noticed, when he DOES sniff the big leagues, he hardly ever catches.

Look, what it comes down to is YOU have only looked at one season's worth of stats. You have not acknowledged his last season's stats. If you look at my original post, I say he had a sub 800 OPS in the minors and I assumed that the translation was 88% and gave the translation. I also gave the translation for the 2006 one, but it seems to me that you're kind of looking for confrontation a bit so you kind of key'd up on that one.

His "other numbers" besides this year would date back to 2004, where he caught 63 games and then 2002 where he caught 20 and we're all of the sudden back to when he's only 22 years old. That's a bit of a stretch to say the least. I'm putting emphasis on his 2006 numbers because it's the only other thing that's out there. We have 2007 where he hit good, not great. We have 2006 where he hit well. You automatically assume that he's the 2007 guy for 2008. I am not so much. I am not convinced of anything nor I am throwing out any seasons. You would know that much if you actually read my posts to their entirety, which you've admitted to not doing. If you were reading my posts, you would notice that my only purpose was to show that there IS a ton of reason to doubt that House is a good option at backup catcher. In fact, I would be very surprised if he ends up as a #2 backup next year somewhere.

If you haven't read everything, then you don't know all that I've argued and you certainly haven't gotten my points down. You've continually accused me of saying things that I haven't said and you continually bring up Bako. Bako was only there as a reference point to how close he was to terrible when you factor in everything.

As for finding a guy who plays better defense, that's not difficult. God knows you only have to be league average in order to be significantly better than him. In fact most backup catchers ARE above average because they're out there mainly to work with pitchers. A lot of times they'll spend time in the bullpen and they a lot of times do bullpen sessions because the full-time guy is too tired. They're there to build rapport with the pitcher in a lot of ways. Bako supposedly is very good at that. If you're going to trust anyone on that, Leo Mazzone would probably be the guy. In year's past, Bako had done a very good job at defense. This year, not so much.

Yea I have seen your reason...Just don't agree with an ounce of it.

[TommyD4207]

Yea I have seen your reason...Just don't agree with an ounce of it.

And again we've come to the conclusion that you barely read any of my posts and just highlight a certain part and go from there. As long as we can agree on that.