JR House

[Mark Carver]

The DH rule (from MLB.com):

.

.

b) The Rule provides as follows:

A hitter may be designated to bat for the starting pitcher and allsubsequent pitchers in any game without otherwise affecting the status of the pitcher(s) in the game. A Designated Hitter for the pitcher must be selected prior to the game and must be included in the lineup cards presented to the Umpire in Chief.

.

.

This part was added because Earl Weaver was listing a starting pitcher as a DH so as not to lose a hitter should the opposing pitcher be ineffective or get injured before it was the DH's turn in the batting order.

[square634]

The bolded part can't possibly be true. Did you mean 2006 or 2007? This year the SB% in the IL was 68.5%, so the CS% was 31.5%. House wasn't half as good as the rest of the league, he was 75% as good. That's a huge difference.

Probably an even more accurate way to look at it would be the SB% of all the teams other than Norfolk, since House never threw out any of his teammates.

[square634]

This part was added because Earl Weaver was listing a starting pitcher as a DH so as not to lose a hitter should the opposing pitcher be ineffective or get injured before it was the DH's turn in the batting order.

Wait, I don't get it. So using current players as examples, he could start Bedard, and then DH Loewen, but what advantage would that give him? So wait, he'd put them both in the lineup, and in the event that Bedard pitched poorly in the first inning, he could say that Bedard was actually the designated hitter and then put in Loewen and a new DH?

[Hank Scorpio]

Guthrie was still a MiL FA whose resume, as a pitcher, wasn't nearly as good as House's resume as a hitter.

The idea that Guthrie was a first round pick became irrelevant by 2005 IMO.

Tell that to Carlos Pena!!!!!!

[RShack]

Wait, I don't get it. So using current players as examples, he could start Bedard, and then DH Loewen, but what advantage would that give him? So wait, he'd put them both in the lineup, and in the event that Bedard pitched poorly in the first inning, he could say that Bedard was actually the designated hitter and then put in Loewen and a new DH?

No, no, no. Say he's got both LH and RH DH-guys. Which one to play? Bedard pitched yesterday, so he's not playing today regardless. So, Earl would've penciled in Bedard as DH in his original line-up card to delay his real DH decision until it's time for the DH to go to the plate. Then, depending on who's pitching for the bad guys then, he'd choose which DH to use to replace Bedard in the line-up. See?

[square634]

No, no, no. Say he's got both LH and RH DH-guys. Which one to play? Bedard pitched yesterday, so he's not playing today regardless. So, Earl would've penciled in Bedard as DH in his original line-up card to delay his real DH decision until it's time for the DH to go to the plate. Then, depending on who's pitching for the bad guys then, he'd choose which DH to use to replace Bedard in the line-up. See?

Oh, I get it now. So the relevant rule is this one: The designated hitter named in the starting lineup must come to bat at least one time, unless the opposing club changes pitchers, not the one that Mark Carver cited. That's what really confused me.

[markdublya]

Nope.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2821607

He did sign a minor league deal I believe, but it was only stepped-up to an ML deal due to an injury.

[mweb]

Please correct me if I'm making a mistake here, but I think you're overstating the advantage in a small difference in CS%, even with the difference in number of steals.

If a catcher allows 77 steals and 23 caught, that's roughly (77*.25) - (23*75) = +2 runs.

If a catcher allows 36 steals and 14 caught that's roughly -1.5 runs.

The difference in these two scenarios is 3.5 runs, or about 1/3 of a win.

People are glossing over this post, but it's very key.

Like Drungo, I still don't think the caught stealing numbers are being properly accounted for.

[DrungoHazewood]

People are glossing over this post, but it's very key.

Like Drungo, I still don't think the caught stealing numbers are being properly accounted for.

And, again, I think Tommy has the IL CS% off by a substantial amount. The CS% rate (with or without including Norfolk's runners, since they were almost exactly league average) was 31.5%. Not 50%. So instead of being orders of magnitude different from the AL it was just off by a few percent.

[TommyD4207]

Would you look at that, I was able to find some time. But I gotta make it quick.

Apologies to everyone, yes I messed it up slightly. Here's what happened:

Last night while I was researching the topic I found that the difference between the average in the AL .81 or so per game and the IL 1.06 I think (don't have time to research it). I concluded that the difference between that was 25%ish and like how Drungo said, JR House was 25% worse than the IL. I put that as a wash. I honestly intended on putting that in my initial article, but it slipped my mind. Today, thinking that this was going to be a day off for me, I decided to skip my daily coffee and I suppose I'm feeling the effects.

So yes, I still stand by what I said that there's a lot of value to be placed on these numbers.

Also, as for this part:

If a catcher allows 77 steals and 23 caught, that's roughly (77*.25) - (23*75) = +2 runs.

If a catcher allows 36 steals and 14 caught that's roughly -1.5 runs.

That's really not the ratio.

The comparison is actually (luckily I have it written down):

House: 57 SB's, 17 CS, .231 CS %

Bako: 28 SB's, 7 CS, .200 CS %

This is if the innings are equalized AND assuming that House caught every inning of every game, which I highly doubt but I am once again granting the benefit of a doubt. This is twice as many base stealers from House as there is Bako. This tells me that in all likelihood, guys are only going on Bako when it's a surefire attempt and guys are going on House at will, considering that's an average of an attempt every 5.69 innings and a successful steal every 7.38 innings. Once again, the 2006 gap was MUCH bigger, but I don't have time to crunch the numbers for that right now (I actually forgot to write those down) but I will.

[Mackus]

The comparison is actually (luckily I have it written down):

House: 57 SB's, 17 CS, .231 CS %

Bako: 28 SB's, 7 CS, .200 CS %

This is if the innings are equalized AND assuming that House caught every inning of every game, which I highly doubt but I am once again granting the benefit of a doubt. This is twice as many base stealers from House as there is Bako. This tells me that in all likelihood, guys are only going on Bako when it's a surefire attempt and guys are going on House at will, considering that's an average of an attempt every 5.69 innings and a successful steal every 7.38 innings. Once again, the 2006 gap was MUCH bigger, but I don't have time to crunch the numbers for that right now (I actually forgot to write those down) but I will.

House caught 51 games in the minors this year (can't find exact # of innings caught, lets assume 9 innings per game, or 459). Bako caught 57 total games, 421 innings.

Lets average those guys out to 500 innings caught each to make it easier:

Bako - 500 innings - 33 SB - 8 CS

House - 500 innings - 62 SB - 18 CS

Using Drungo's formula:

Bako = (33*.25) - (8*.75) = +2.25 runs

House = (62*.25) - (18*.75) = +2.00 runs

So House was worth roughly as many runs throwing out runners in AAA as Bako was against MLB guys. I'll cede that MLB runners probably are better, and House's numbers wouldn't be as good in the bigs, but no way will there be a big enough difference that House won't make up for it with his bat.

IMO, House is a much better option at backup C for 2008 than Bako. Now, Bako is a terrible option, so thats not saying much right there. We may be able to do better than House, but I doubt we'll find anybody who has as good of a bat as House does, just somebody who is much stronger defensively (Bako is pretty terrible defensively as well).

[Mackus]

House: 57 SB's, 17 CS, .231 CS %

Bako: 28 SB's, 7 CS, .200 CS %

This is if the innings are equalized AND assuming that House caught every inning of every game.

Oops, didn't see you already did this. Here's Drungo's formula on your numbers:

House = (57*.25) - (17*.75) = +1.5 runs

Bako = (28*.25) - (7 *.75) = +1.75 runs

Make whatever adjustment for league/level you want, but House isn't going to be that far behind Bako in terms of throwing runners out. Again, Bako is generally terrible, so I don't think he's a great basis for comparison, but I really don't think House's defense is going to hurt enough to make up for his bat and versatility to play 1B and DH as well.

[TommyD4207]

Quick post I promise!

Mackus, that's an awfully, awfully, awfully large leap in faith that you're taking in saying that House would surefire not be that far behind Bako in terms of runners being thrown out. A few reasons:

1. Guys get thrown out at a higher rate in the IL than in the AL. The difference is greater than the difference between Bako and House's CS %. That has to count for something. What does it count for? Well, like TGO said earlier in this thread, it's probably guys stealing because they're looking to impress their parent clubs. One way to do that is to show a wider skillset. This probably means that you're having guys that are stealing more than they typically would or are capable of. Consequently, they get thrown out sometimes, thus equating to the higher throw-out rate. Also, I tend to believe that guys in the big leagues are better baserunners.

2. Remember, you're only looking at one year's worth of work. His 2006 season gets continually glossed over. If last year he threw out guys with great authority, I tend to believe that this year would be much more discounted than it is. As of right now, it's used as the main reference point and I don't believe that that's fair. If we're betting on what he would do next year, you'd have to take both years into consideration. Both years he had more than the league average amount of guys try to steal on him and he had a below average CS %. As shown in the Hardball Times article that os1971 gave, he had among the worst CS % there was. That has to count for something. When I get the time, I'll do a comparison for that.

[Sports Guy]

Quick post I promise!

Mackus, that's an awfully, awfully, awfully large leap in faith that you're taking in saying that House would surefire not be that far behind Bako in terms of runners being thrown out. A few reasons:

1. Guys get thrown out at a higher rate in the IL than in the AL. The difference is greater than the difference between Bako and House's CS %. That has to count for something. What does it count for? Well, like TGO said earlier in this thread, it's probably guys stealing because they're looking to impress their parent clubs. One way to do that is to show a wider skillset. This probably means that you're having guys that are stealing more than they typically would or are capable of. Consequently, they get thrown out sometimes, thus equating to the higher throw-out rate. Also, I tend to believe that guys in the big leagues are better baserunners.

2. Remember, you're only looking at one year's worth of work. His 2006 season gets continually glossed over. If last year he threw out guys with great authority, I tend to believe that this year would be much more discounted than it is. As of right now, it's used as the main reference point and I don't believe that that's fair. If we're betting on what he would do next year, you'd have to take both years into consideration. Both years he had more than the league average amount of guys try to steal on him and he had a below average CS %. As shown in the Hardball Times article that os1971 gave, he had among the worst CS % there was. That has to count for something. When I get the time, I'll do a comparison for that.

It does...Just not much and especially not much when considering the difference in bats.

[RShack]

Two things:

1. I think Tommy deserves Major Props for showing, by his example, how good stat-based discussions should be handled. He's not ranting, he's not calling people stupid, he's not dissing people who disagree. What he's doing is investigating a specific issue, and he's doing it with an open mind. I think the "open mind" part is a very big thing. He is relying on actually thinking about things, and not just retreating into cliches.

2. About the CS% issue with House. I think the sheer frequency of IL steal attempts on him *suggests* (doesn't "prove", but "suggests") that some non-base-stealers were running on him. I would think that this means that the people he's throwing out include a bunch of folks who wouldn't run on anybody else. But this is just conjecture. To address it, you'd prolly have to look at the base-stealing data for each and every guy who ran on him, and then use that to somehow normalize his CS to something that better represents what his "normal" CS might be. (This would require a ton of work, just digging out and compiling the data, and I'm not trying to hint that Tommy needs to do it.) For myself, I suspect that his IL CS% is inflated because of this (by "this", I mean that he's throwing out guys like Boog Powell, not CPat), but this is just conjecture on my part.