New Article: "Matt Hobgood: Mid-Term Report" by Doc Shorebird

[Arthur_Bryant]

I am willing to bet that standards today are even lower. I have heard that the level of fitness of new recruits has never been lower. Kids just don't go outside and play anymore.

BTW walking five miles in an hour is a bit harder then you are thinking. For instance in the Army 2.5 mile walk alternate event someone 52 and older is allowed 37:30 to finish, which is slower then the pace you state you can maintain for twice the distance. In fact the 12 min mile pace is the standard for males 37-41. The hardest part about the walk is that you have to walk, one foot has to be on the ground at all times. Friends of mine that took the walk test invariably told me they would rather have done the run.

I do a one-hour walking session on a track four or five times a week and usually cover about 4.4 - 4.5 miles. For me that's a comfortable pace that doesn't require exertion -- I'm at the lower end of my target rate zone, and I can let my mind wander and still stay on pace. I can throw in a 12-minute mile or two in there but that requires a lot of focus, and it does push the rate up toward the upper end of the target zone. Could I do it for an hour? I've thought about trying it, just to see. Once in a while I alternate easy jog quarters with hard pace half-miles during my one-hour session, and then I clear five miles plus, no problem.

Not bragging. I have been a walker all my life. I have always been able to walk, and hump a 70-pound pack, longer and harder than just about anyone I meet. Everybody has to be good at something.

Huh? You walk 5 mph? Most "walkers" go about 3-4 mph.

That's not walking. That's strolling.

[Tony-OH]

And he got $2.5M to be a professional. Yes, he is 19yrs old and will mature and improve. But as fans, when we see a guy drafted in the 1st round, receive multi-million signing bonus, we are going to be disappointed at diminished velocity, at reports that he weighs 20lbs heavier than when drafted.

We all wish Matt the best and want him to realize his potential. At the end of the day, when it's our money (and make no mistake about it, this "business" is fueled by fan money), we want success. And because we want to see that so badly for him and for us, we are going to scrutinize. That's what Matt and every other ballplayer signed up for when they sign a professional contract.

I think this is the best post in the thread from the fans point of view. no one is rooting against Matt, and it's nice to hear how much Doc, the coaches and even Matt thinks he's working hard.

At the end of the day, this business is about results and as I always say, "Actions speak louder than words."

No reason for anyone to give up on the kid but there's no reason to be upset with people having concerns.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

Results are important to me, but I'm not going to make any conclusions until the end of next year. If he is a hard worker as everybody says he is than he should get those ticks of velocity back next year after an intense off season training session. In my opinion Frederick is where we ultimately find out how much potential he has because it is his 2nd year of full ball, and he has a 2nd year of off season training.

[Sports Guy]

Tell you the truth, I'm not impressed with those numbers in the California League for a 22-year old especially for a guy who most scouts don't believe will stick at short.

I would like to see more walks but really, he had a verybad stretch that hurt those numbers.

BA still has them as one of their top 50 prospects at midseason.

I don't think you can say MOST scouts feel he won't stay at SS...There are mixed reviews on that but to say most is a stretch IMO unless thoughts have changed this season.

His is showing a lot of power...and the doubles are a good long term sign.

Now, I would like to see him moved up to AA...He really shouldn't be in A ball anymore IMO.

He is clearly a better prospect than Hobgood and is obviously much closer to the majors.

[MurphDogg]

If Green had been selected by the O's and had the exact same numbers for Frederick, you would have him no lower than the 3rd overall prospect in the system behind Britton, and Bell.

Right, but the California League is more of a hitter's league than the Carolina League. So if he had the exact same numbers at Frederick he would be a better prospect.

[Sports Guy]

I will say this about Green...He has a BABIP of 401 but only has a LD% of 15%...Lots of luck there.

Still, get him to AA and see what he can do.

Not so worried about the errors right now either. The question was his range, his not his arm.

Either way, give me Green over Hobgood 10 times out of 10.

[allstar1579]

I will say this about Green...He has a BABIP of 401 but only has a LD% of 15%...Lots of luck there.

Still, get him to AA and see what he can do.

Not so worried about the errors right now either. The question was his range, his not his arm.

Either way, give me Green over Hobgood 10 times out of 10.

Gotta see them to really get the story there. He could be making the errors by overthrowing because he doesn't have the range to get to the routine balls, and he's trying to make it up on the throw, or they could just be bobbles or generic errors. Could go either way. We'll hear more about it through next season though, he's got flexibility because they can move him around the INF if he can't stick at SS so I doubt they are too worried yet.

[sangar]

The fact that Green is closer to the majors is almost entirely because he's 22 years old while Hobgood is 19. With that being said, Hobgood is just one level behind him even though he's three years younger. Green has made 21 errors in roughly half a season at SS. He's fanned 24 times and struck out 80 times in 320 AB's. He has shown decent power in the doubles department and been ok with 8 homers. In the Calfornia League those numbers are good but certainly nothing to write home about. I'd like to see Green in AA too. Will his plate discipline be exposed further. Even recently, he's basically not walking at all. Green had a lot of hype before the draft. Baseball America isn't about to reverse course this soon. To say he is currently a better prospect is probably accurate. As we've seen in baseball, with young players especially, things can change dramatically. Hobgood really isn't doing badly for a 19 year old in his first season of full season ball. The biggest question is the velocity. If the velocity doesn't return he was a bad pick. If Hobgood is sitting 91-93 next season, then Grant Green will probably just wind up being the player we're glad we didn't take.

He was hitting 93 today.

[Tony-OH]

If Green had been selected by the O's and had the exact same numbers for Frederick, you would have him no lower than the 3rd overall prospect in the system behind Britton, and Bell.

Having the same numbers in the Carolina League is much different than the California League. It's almost apples to oranges even though they are the same level.

With his K-BB ratio needing to be a little better, and when you add in the the fact that a lot of guys think he'll have to move off SS and I'm not overly impressed.

Saying that, he'd be the best SS prospect in our organization by far.

[Tony-OH]

I would like to see more walks but really, he had a verybad stretch that hurt those numbers.

BA still has them as one of their top 50 prospects at midseason.

I don't think you can say MOST scouts feel he won't stay at SS...There are mixed reviews on that but to say most is a stretch IMO unless thoughts have changed this season.

His is showing a lot of power...and the doubles are a good long term sign.

Now, I would like to see him moved up to AA...He really shouldn't be in A ball anymore IMO.

He is clearly a better prospect than Hobgood and is obviously much closer to the majors.

Well, he should have good power numbers since he's in the California League. The K-BB ratio is the single most telling numbers in the California league since most guys hit well there.

He might be considered a better prospect than Hobgood right now but i'm not arguing that point at all really. He's clearly closer though.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

How big of a difference is California league than Carolina league? What factors contribute to these differences?

[DrungoHazewood]

The fact that Green is closer to the majors is almost entirely because he's 22 years old while Hobgood is 19. With that being said, Hobgood is just one level behind him even though he's three years younger. Green has made 21 errors in roughly half a season at SS. He's fanned 24 times and struck out 80 times in 320 AB's. He has shown decent power in the doubles department and been ok with 8 homers. In the Calfornia League those numbers are good but certainly nothing to write home about. I'd like to see Green in AA too. Will his plate discipline be exposed further. Even recently, he's basically not walking at all. Green had a lot of hype before the draft. Baseball America isn't about to reverse course this soon. To say he is currently a better prospect is probably accurate. As we've seen in baseball, with young players especially, things can change dramatically. Hobgood really isn't doing badly for a 19 year old in his first season of full season ball. The biggest question is the velocity. If the velocity doesn't return he was a bad pick. If Hobgood is sitting 91-93 next season, then Grant Green will probably just wind up being the player we're glad we didn't take.

I have some serious concerns about Hobgood, but I would also have some concerns if Green were in the system. He's 11th in OPS among players 22 or younger in the Cal League. His plate discipline will need to improve pretty dramatically. He's third on the Stockton team in OPS, among 22 year olds.

Both players are young enough that nothing's set in stone. But Hobgood isn't putting up numbers like a top 10 pick, and Green currently isn't hitting like someone who'll stick if he can't play shortstop longterm.

[QBsILLEST1]

Yeah, well Doc said he was hitting 91-93. He didn't say he was sitting 91-93. There's a difference. Almost every eyewitness report we've ever gotten on Hobgood as a pro has had him sitting 87-89, and touching 91. Earlier in the year his uncle reported a couple of pitches hitting 93-94. If he was actually sitting at 91-93 today then that's another story, and a good one.

Hmm, regardless hitting or sitting 91-93 is a very positive sign after some rest. Also notice his K's were better than normal for Hobgood, I don't think that was coincidence. Him hitting 93MPH is something I have heard him doing only 1 other time this year.

[QBsILLEST1]

Grant Green. 1 walk and 15 strikeouts in his last 10 games. I'm not seeing the progress, despite the 300+ average and some average power. Of course, SG would take him 10 times out of ten over Hobgood so I must be missing something.

Yeah, I just can't get down with this thought process. Hobgood and his average numbers as one of the younger players in the league while not with his best velocity is more of a prospect(in my eyes) than Grant Green and his production thus far in the California League which is one level above Hobby right now. And this is assuming the drop in velocity is fixable, which it sounds like it is, he just needs to get into better shape next season....

[Tony-OH]

Grant Green. 1 walk and 15 strikeouts in his last 10 games. I'm not seeing the progress, despite the 300+ average and some average power. Of course, SG would take him 10 times out of ten over Hobgood so I must be missing something.

And even with those numbers, SG might still be right. I don't think either guy has done a ton to be picked so highly but at least Hobgood has a ton of time on his side.