Rank the drafts of the Jordan era

[Crazysilver03]

2005: Snyder, Olson, Reimold, Raynor and D. Hernandez have reached the majors. Erbe, Spoone and Egan are probably the best prospects left on the board. The O's had all their picks and a 1st round supplemental (Olson).

2006: Berken has reached the majors. Britton is one of the top 2 prospects and a sure bet to make the majors barring injuries. Best remaining prospects appear to be Adams, Beato and Henson. Rowell is barely considered a prospect. Egan was drafted but didn't sign. The O's had all their picks and a 1st round supplemental (Beato).

2007: Wieters and Arrieta have reached the majors. Mahoney and Angle are probably the best two prospects left on the board. Not a lot of depth here, but we had no 2nd or 3rd round pick.

2008: Matusz has reached the majors. Avery and Hoes remain top prospects at age 20. Joseph, Beal, Miclat, and Bundy are all still decent prospects. The O's had all their picks.

2009: Hobgood shows signs of being a bust, but it's still early. Givens, Townsend and Berry are showing some promise. There are a few others who haven't had much chance to show anything. The O's had all their picks.

2010: Machado is very highly regarded. Klein, Mummey, Bridwell and Schrader had solid debuts. The O's had no 2nd rounder.

I think I have to go with 2007 as the best, even though it's a shallow class. Wieters and Arrieta bring a lot at the top and I think Angle and Mahoney will get big league time. The 2008 class is probably 2nd, followed by 2010, 2005, 2009 and 2006.

1) Why do you include Egan in the 2005 draft even though he signed as a draft-and-follow from the 2006 draft? On that logic, Dan Klein could be lumped in the 2007 draft.

2) Why include Raynor in the 2005 draft, will Jordan get credit for drafted Scheppers in 2005?

3) From 2007, Tim Bascom could still make a nice groundball reliever in the bullpen.

[Enjoy Terror]

From 2007, Brandon Cooney has a good shot at being an MLB reliever. He's really come through the minors as an unsung relief pitcher who's pitched very well at every level.

From 2008, I think something needs to be said for the potential of Welty, Drake and Zagone as well.

[Frobby]

1) Why do you include Egan in the 2005 draft even though he signed as a draft-and-follow from the 2006 draft? On that logic, Dan Klein could be lumped in the 2007 draft.

2) Why include Raynor in the 2005 draft, will Jordan get credit for drafted Scheppers in 2005?

I messed up my description of what happened with Egan in the OP. I meant to say he was drafted but not signed in 2005, but instead I said that about 2006. I've gone back and corrected that, and also mentioned that Raynor wasn't signed and then was drafted by another team.

Obviously the same logic would apply to Scheppers if he reached the majors. I know he has been highly touted, but his numbers are rather uninspiring to me so I chose not to mention him since he's not in the majors and not in our organization either.

I hadn't noticed that we drafted Klein in 2007. I've added that to the OP.

The question of whether you should include players who were drafted but didn't sign in evaluating a draft depends on what you are evaluating. If you are evaluating the benefit to the team, then no. If you are evaluating whether the scouts have a good eye for talent, then arguably yes.

[QBsILLEST1]

I messed up my description of what happened with Egan in the OP. I meant to say he was drafted but not signed in 2005, but instead I said that about 2006. I've gone back and corrected that, and also mentioned that Raynor wasn't signed and then was drafted by another team.

Obviously the same logic would apply to Scheppers if he reached the majors. I know he has been highly touted, but his numbers are rather uninspiring to me so I chose not to mention him since he's not in the majors and not in our organization either.

I hadn't noticed that we drafted Klein in 2007. I've added that to the OP.

The question of whether you should include players who were drafted but didn't sign in evaluating a draft depends on what you are evaluating. If you are evaluating the benefit to the team, then no. If you are evaluating whether the scouts have a good eye for talent, then arguably yes.

I wonder what Scheppers was looking like the year we drafted him out of HS....

[Frobby]

I wonder what Scheppers was looking like the year we drafted him out of HS....

By the way, can someone enlighten me on why he is so highly regarded? His AAA numbers weren't that inspiring. He'll be 24 in January and it looks as if he'll need to start 2011 in the minors, no?

Here is what John Sickels said today:

4) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Grade B: Very tough to rank. Was great in relief early, stumbled in the rotation, and was horrible back in the bullpen late. This grade could go down a notch further depending on what further research reveals.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/11/1/1788364/texas-rangers-top-20-prospects-for-2011#storyjump

[Stotle]

By the way, can someone enlighten me on why he is so highly regarded? His AAA numbers weren't that inspiring. He'll be 24 in January and it looks as if he'll need to start 2011 in the minors, no?

Here is what John Sickels said today:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/11/1/1788364/texas-rangers-top-20-prospects-for-2011#storyjump

At Fresno St., prior to injury, he was capable of hitting upper-90s with a lively fastball, held mid-90s late in starts, and had a hammer upper-70s curve. The shoulder injury raised concerns. He started lights-out in the minors at AA, getting everyone excited, then fell apart at AAA.

[hoosiers]

I wonder what Scheppers was looking like the year we drafted him out of HS....

I believe BA reports Scheppers through so hard in HS he had to dial it back so that the catcher on his team could handle the pitches. Not sure how close we came to signing Scheppers, but I wanted that one done.

IMO, Joe Jordan really did not get his drafting groove until 2008.

[Frobby]

Hey, that's the first time I recall that kind of power projection for Hoes. That's great. However, a few people have mentioned the way Hoes was hitting before the mono. While he did have a very good May (.890 OPS) it was mostly due to a high average. He did hit 6 doubles out of his 16 hits but he had no triples and no home runs that month. The amount of doubles is a good sign but it's not exactly a power breakout.

I agree that his statistical history doesn't scream for a power breakout. Obviously the scouts who are watching him see something in him that hasn't showed up in the numbers yet. I guess we'll see how 2011 goes. Meanwhile, I'm really looking forward to reading Tony's write-up next week.

[ShaneDawg85]

Right now I'd put 2007 at the top, followed closely by 2008. Even if Wieters never becomes a superstar, or Arrieta the Orioles healthy version of AJ Burnett or a shutdown closer, 2007 was such a bold draft, something that hadn't been seen for the Orioles in several years because they finally were willing to take a risk on Boras clients, and spend a ton of money. Wieters and Arrieta infused the system with top of the line talent right from the very moment they signed, and it wouldn't take long to make it to the majors.

I put 2008 second simply because we haven't seen what Hoes and Avery will become, although the possibilities are endless. Matusz is so good in his own right that everything else is gravy. If Hoes and Avery reach their potential and continue on their current track, I just might put 2008 first. That's how good the potential is from these three alone.

2005 saw its fair share of contributors to the major leagues, even if consistency has eluded them. I don't know how you can't put 2006 as the worst draft. When the only guy you can rest your laurels on is Jason Berken, a relief pitcher that several organizations have their own version of, that's bad. That's really, really bad. Our hopes rest on Britton, since Rowell won't become anything close to what we hoped.

2009 and 2010 are all about potential, but between the two I go put 2010 first, simply because of Machado.

[wildcard]

07 - Wieters and Arrieta

08 - Matusz, best chance for a TOR

10 - High hopes for Machado

05 - Olson brought Pie, Reimold, DH with Snyder still having a chance

06 - Blew Rowell. But Britton makes up for some of it.

09 - Hobgood disappoints so far. Givens, Townsend and Berry have some promise.

[oriolefan1035]

Hoes was, by many accounts, the most impressive hitter in BP at Aberdeen, while still not fully recovered from mono. If that can begin to translate to games, his power could break out in a really big way.

Please tell me this isn't how the Orioles are evaluating their prospects now. I mean, we're talkin' 'bout practice. Not the, not the game, but practice?!

[Stotle]

Please tell me this isn't how the Orioles are evaluating their prospects now. I mean, we're talkin' 'bout practice. Not the, not the game, but practice?!

Well, to be fair, Avery apparently swung through at least 3 pitches during BP last night at the AFL.

[wildcard]

Worst to first

6. 2006- Missed on Rowell and Beato, two high ceiling talents. Britton and Berken with Adams and Henson as still hopeful

5. 2005- Snyder, Olson, Reimold, Erbe and Spoone. Not much results but it's hard to knock the talent that was drafted.

4. 2010 - Machado could be a gem. Klein could be very good. Other talented picks look like Mummey, Bridwell, & Narron. Too soon to really judge.

3. 2008 - Solid draft at the top. Matusz with Avery, Hoes, Miclat, Bundy, Joseph, Beal, and Welty all having a chance. Zagone, Drake, and Hudson are on the periphery.

2. . 2009 - Really tough to grade this draft because of injuries. Could be the most raw talent as far as numbers, in any of these drafts. Players like Randy Henry, Tim Berry, Coffey, Wirsch, Cowan, Tolliver, Martin, Ohlman and Webb give this draft some really nice potential to go with along with Hobgood, Givens, Townsend, and Ryan Berry. Still think this could wind up being the best of the bunch.

1. 2007 Wieters and Arrieta look like at least average ML players with the potential to be more. Cooney, Angle, and Mahoney could make the show.

The thing about the 2009 draft is right now is there does not appear to be any impact players in it. Wieters, Matusz and hopefully Machado appear to be impact players. Since only one or two players in every year become a teams impact players (who play in the majors for a long time at a high level of performance) that kind of defines a draft for me.

2009 seems to have a few players that can make the majors but that would not elevate the draft past a draft with Matusz in it to me.

Do you see impact players in the 2009 draft?

[Frobby]

Do you see impact players in the 2009 draft?

It's still a little soon to know. Would you have seen Britton as an impact player after the 2007 season?

However, I think the 2009 class really suffers because of Hobgood's early struggles.

[allstar1579]

It's still a little soon to know. Would you have seen Britton as an impact player after the 2007 season?

However, I think the 2009 class really suffers because of Hobgood's early struggles.

Yep, well said. There are two different views on draft classes, the immediate reflection where you rank it based on pre-draft predictions, and then a later hindsight view in a couple years once you see who is and isn't panning out. It's hard to do the latter before 2-3 years down the road, so I wouldn't think too hard about it until after this season at least.