AM – you have a credibility problem

[SrMeowMeow]

And he never claimed to be. Read the rest of the thread!

I'm not trying to be a jerk. But this:

I’m simply here to point out what has become obvious to any regular reader on this board. The Orioles fan base doesn’t believe you will do what it takes to make a serious upgrade at positions of need through means other than player development. Heyman says we’re being aggressive early in FA, but we have our doubts.

Is not "I think I'm speaking for a lot of people". He could have said that, but he chose the more inflammatory language, and that bothers me.

Other problems?

Mr. MacPhail, to win in the AL East, we must do more than fill major holes with stop gaps. We need stud players at the major league and minor league level. We’re sick and tired of the long rebuild. Now isn’t the time for more half measures. Filling just one of our needs this offseason isn’t an option. Waiting on guys who might start the year in AA or below next year also isn’t an option.

Like, what is this? Do you think MacPhail is getting offered "stud players at the major league and minor league level" for free and is constantly turning them down because he likes stopgaps? Everything has a price, and every player's value is conditional on their price. And no team is going to knowingly trade you some "stud player" without getting appropriate value in return. Likewise, almost by definition, free agent contracts are on average bad value. If you want a stud pitcher on this market, for example, you are probably giving 34-year-old Cliff Lee 6 years

This passage is the kind of simplistic thinking that completely ignores how difficult the job of GMing actually is. It really annoys me. I'm not in love with MacPhail, but he better not lose his job for these kinds of reasons.

[AZOriole]

I can see that view on things. But the O's were not ready to spend because the young pitching was not in place last off season.

Tejada brought back Pelzer who might be a trading chip this off season. Is Chris Ray coming off a injury worth much more then the top 10 BA rated Plezer?

Millwood ate innings. The fact that the O's couldn't score for him is not his fault. He did much better the last two months when Buck had the team playing for their positions. Support matters.

MacPhail overpaid for Gonzalez. But isn't that what many poster call for MacPhail to do - Overpay?

OK MacPhail blew it on Atkins. He cost the team $4.5M. Show me a GM that has been around a while that hasn't made a mistake or two or three....

I am not holding last year against MacPhail. So far I think he has positioned the team to do what it needs to do this off season. Now he has to do it.

The bolded part above is true. I still think last offseason was a bit of a failure, but it's not like there were moves to be made that would've put them in a position to win. And who could've foreseen the abysmal start to the season last year. It's pretty tough to dig yourself out of a hole that deep.

This offseason is going to speak volumes for me. I need to see some aggressiveness. The FA class is weak, and I don't expect the O's to get any one of Lee, Werth, Crawford, D. Lee, VMart or Beltre. What I want to see is trades explored to put above average, or maybe even a cornerstone player, at one of the 3 areas of weakness (1B, 3B, SS). Going in to 2011 with band-aids at all of those positions, or even two of them, will be a failure, IMO.

[Roll Tide]

So you would consider going from 64 to 85 wins a failure, then.

Hank .... I'm personally sick of the mid-priced stop gap type guys. The Orioles should have learned by now that adding 35 year old baseball players won't get it done.

A 19 Win improvement won't happen if we don't close the talent the Yankees, Redsox, & Tampa. After all those are the teams we have to beat for us to improve 19 games. Basically Toronto also since they basically have owned us.

I not arguing the outcome though...Just how you get there.

[sangar]

Really? The Orioles have finished dead last every year he's been here. They have not made any significant changes to their international scouting presence and although he has improved the budget for signing Rule IV draft picks, the Orioles still are being out-manned in both the amateur and professional scouting areas.

I'm not doubting his integrity, but I will call foul on doing what he said he would do. He's had three years to improve our international scouting presence and has done little upgrade it.

Regardless, I think you are too stuck on the OPs stance on credibility. Despite my misgivings, I will give him this off season before I make a final call on his effectiveness. He needs to show he can multi-task this off season and that will mean allowing others on his staff to take on real responsibility. If he spends too much time trying to squeeze out an extra player or two in a trade and misses out on opportunities to improve his club in other areas it will be disappointing.

As I stated in a previous post in another thread, he has no reason to not be aggressive and to not make significant upgrades to this team this off season.

I'm sure we all hope at the end of this winter that we're all singing his praises.

I'm 'stuck' on the OP's stance on AM's credibility because he specifically attacked AM's credibility and that is what I have the issue with.

If he hasn't lived up to what he said he would do regarding international scouting then I'll certainly take your word in that regard but there have been improvements in the DR and Japan and his term is not up yet.

Could he have done a better job? Of course he could have. Are we much better positioned than we have been in the past decade? Yes, we are. Will he finish the job effectively? This off season will go a long way in determining that.

[Roll Tide]

I'm not trying to be a jerk. But this:

Is not "I think I'm speaking for a lot of people". He could have said that, but he chose the more inflammatory language, and that bothers me.

Other problems?

Like, what is this? Do you think MacPhail is getting offered "stud players at the major league and minor league level" for free and is constantly turning them down because he likes stopgaps? Everything has a price, and every player's value is conditional on their price. And no team is going to knowingly trade you some "stud player" without getting appropriate value in return. Likewise, almost by definition, free agent contracts are on average bad value. If you want a stud pitcher on this market, for example, you are probably giving 34-year-old Cliff Lee 6 years

This passage is the kind of simplistic thinking that completely ignores how difficult the job of GMing actually is. It really annoys me. I'm not in love with MacPhail, but he better not lose his job for these kinds of reasons.

1st nothings free. 2nd the Orioles choose stop gaps rather than paying market for a star. IMO They gave up on Tex way to early. If they made a comparable offer to that of the Yankees & he turned them down.

To say we're at $140 when team B is at $180 & were willing to move ...If interested call me back is not a way to get what you want. (Dont ask me to come up with the exact quotes....Im sure you get the point!)

[Arthur_Bryant]

I not arguing the outcome though...Just how you get there.

Really?????

If the outcome is successful, I don't really care how it was achieved, so long as it doesn't foreclose the possibility of more success down the road.

[AZOriole]

Hank .... I'm personally sick of the mid-priced stop gap type guys. The Orioles should have learned by now that adding 35 year old baseball players won't get it done.

A 19 Win improvement won't happen if we don't close the talent the Yankees, Redsox, & Tampa. After all those are the teams we have to beat for us to improve 19 games. Basically Toronto also since they basically have owned us.

I not arguing the outcome though...Just how you get there.

Excellent post. Another offseason of Garret Atkins-type signings is taking another step backwards. AM has spent his tenure here building up the system and growing the arms. It's time to explore cashing some of those chips in.

[Stotle]

This passage is the kind of simplistic thinking that completely ignores how difficult the job of GMing actually is. It really annoys me. I'm not in love with MacPhail, but he better not lose his job for these kinds of reasons.

Is there a point where, regardless of how "difficult" a job is, you get graded on results? Maybe you disagree with the tone, but I have a hard time picturing a more comfortable set-up than being allowed to operate for four years with rock-bottom expectations and little to no accountability as measured against the success of your competitors in various areas (international scouting/acquisition, ML record, minor league progression of players, organization of developmental staff across minor league levels, breadth of areas covered on amateur scouting side, etc.).

Since coming on board, can we point to anything that MacPhail has done better than the rest of the AL East? I agree that the job is incredibly difficult, and it is not an easy task to make ground -- particularly in the AL East. At the end of the day, however, BAL plays in the AL East and the PoBBO needs to operate within that framework. If BAL is looking-up from last place four years into MacPhail's tenure, isn't he accountable for something? How about after five years? Six?

[wildcard]

The bolded part above is true. I still think last offseason was a bit of a failure, but it's not like there were moves to be made that would've put them in a position to win. And who could've foreseen the abysmal start to the season last year. It's pretty tough to dig yourself out of a hole that deep.

This offseason is going to speak volumes for me. I need to see some aggressiveness. The FA class is weak, and I don't expect the O's to get any one of Lee, Werth, Crawford, D. Lee, VMart or Beltre. What I want to see is trades explored to put above average, or maybe even a cornerstone player, at one of the 3 areas of weakness (1B, 3B, SS). Going in to 2011 with band-aids at all of those positions, or even two of them, will be a failure, IMO.

i think the O's have a decent chance at VMart and Derrek Lee.

[LookinUp]

I'm not trying to be a jerk. But this:

Is not "I think I'm speaking for a lot of people". He could have said that, but he chose the more inflammatory language, and that bothers me.

Other problems?

Like, what is this? Do you think MacPhail is getting offered "stud players at the major league and minor league level" for free and is constantly turning them down because he likes stopgaps? Everything has a price, and every player's value is conditional on their price. And no team is going to knowingly trade you some "stud player" without getting appropriate value in return. Likewise, almost by definition, free agent contracts are on average bad value. If you want a stud pitcher on this market, for example, you are probably giving 34-year-old Cliff Lee 6 years

This passage is the kind of simplistic thinking that completely ignores how difficult the job of GMing actually is. It really annoys me. I'm not in love with MacPhail, but he better not lose his job for these kinds of reasons.

I acknowledge that I over stated the OP w/r/t the Orioles fanbase, and have changed it to make the point.

I'll leave it to everyone else to say whether it's simplistic thinking.

[AZOriole]

i think the O's have a decent chance at VMart and Derrek Lee.

They may. I'm just not expecting them to. And I'm really hoping that, if they do, it's not for anything longer than 3 years. My worry is that it'll take a longer deal to get them here.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I'm 'stuck' on the OP's stance on AM's credibility because he specifically attacked AM's credibility and that is what I have the issue with.

If he hasn't lived up to what he said he would do regarding international scouting then I'll certainly take your word in that regard but there have been improvements in the DR and Japan and his term is not up yet.

Could he have done a better job? Of course he could have. Are we much better positioned than we have been in the past decade? Yes, we are. Will he finish the job effectively? This off season will go a long way in determining that.

I think we are somewhat getting hung up on semantics by picking out one word and focusing on one of its several possible meanings.

There is the credibility of whether you can believe what someone claims to be true. On this score, I have no problems with MacPhail. If he says, for example, that he has autonomy in the day-to-day running of the organization, I believe him.

There is also the credibility of whether someone or something truly measures up to the demands and expectations of a role. If you're trying to stop a charging grizzly bear, a high-powered rifle has more credibility than a 9mm handgun.

This is where I have doubts about MacPhail, or at least skepticism--on the question of whether he is able to turn the organization around and make it truly competitive in the AL East.

[LookinUp]

I'm 'stuck' on the OP's stance on AM's credibility because he specifically attacked AM's credibility and that is what I have the issue with.

If he hasn't lived up to what he said he would do regarding international scouting then I'll certainly take your word in that regard but there have been improvements in the DR and Japan and his term is not up yet.

Could he have done a better job? Of course he could have. Are we much better positioned than we have been in the past decade? Yes, we are. Will he finish the job effectively? This off season will go a long way in determining that.

I'm either not stating it correctly, or others are jumping to conclusions about the credibility point.

I'm NOT knocking AM's integrity. My very first sentence says that I'm not calling him a liar. That was there before any comments back at me.

All I'm doing is pointing out that many of us don't trust that he'll do what it takes to build a winner in the AL East. This is based on his passive - percolating - approach in the past. I acknowledged the rebuild though, and said I was on board.

I'm not calling him a failure to date. I'm saying that we doubt he'll be aggressive enough to fill our obvious holes. Finally, I'm making the point that most in this thread are also making, that now is the time to step up. The OP was meant to point out that if he's really the guy we need, now is the time to close the deal.

If Tony Pente stands next to Usain Bolt and says he's going to beat him in a 100m sprint, how much credibility would he have? He might believe it. He might intend to do it. But nobody will believe he can.

Luckily, AM isn't that far off, though w/r/t amateur and international scouting, some may believe he IS that far off.

However, if AM says he's going to buy the bats, exactly how much credibility does he have? Do you all believe that he'll "buy" a difference-making bat? If he doesn't, do you believe his plan will be good enough to put us over the top? Doesn't that raise some serious doubt about whether he's the man to lead us to championships, and doesn't that mean that his credibility as the right GM for this team is in doubt?

I absolutely think he has a credibility problem - not an integrity problem, a credibility problem -, and he will until he shows many of us that he understands what it takes to win in the AL east and he does what it takes to get us there.

[SrMeowMeow]

Really?????

If the outcome is successful, I don't really care how it was achieved, so long as it doesn't foreclose the possibility of more success down the road.

Actually, I disagree 100%, from an analytic perspective. The result means nothing, the process means everything. If you want to repeat the result, that is.

[Roll Tide]

Really?????

If the outcome is successful, I don't really care how it was achieved, so long as it doesn't foreclose the possibility of more success down the road.

So the Orioles add two or three 35+ year old guys to 2-3 yr deals. They win 85 games. The following season the players decline. We win 65....Would you be happy then?