AM – you have a credibility problem

[Sports Guy]

At what point do people get past the idea of "we are better off now than we were before AM got here"?

When do the results matter to you guys?

[Roll Tide]

If you're getting results from Arrieta, Matusz, Bergesen & Britton, then I'd say his approach has been painfully deliberate, but reasonably successful.

If your young pitching is intact and performing, I'd say it's reasonable to expect them to improve even more in 2012, sure. Why wouldn't it?

Unless you run support is mediocre.

Stop gaps=Stop Gaps= Stop Gaps

And when do you fix the lineup?

Remember Millwood early this season.

[Tony-OH]

So, you're really saying that this rebuild is fully on AM's shoulders, be it a success or a failure.

I don't have much faith in Angelos, but I trust your take.

That's the way I understand it.

[Sports Guy]

Tough crowd.

Cause we expect them to put together a team that can realistically contend in this division? Really? That makes us a tough crowd?

Have your expectations and your desire to win a title gotten that low?

[Hank Scorpio]

Cause we expect them to put together a team that can realistically contend in this division? Really? That makes us a tough crowd?

Have your expectations and your desire to win a title gotten that low?

You would seriously be disappointed with a team that goes from 64 wins to 85 wins largely based on the successes of the starting pitching? Why? Because they didn't hit 400 home runs?

Who cares how they get to that point, especially if it's on the back of the young pitching, which the organization has a decent amount of? And which is probably relatively sustainable?

REALLY?

What am I missing?

[LookinUp]

You would seriously be disappointed with a team that goes from 64 wins to 85 wins largely based on the successes of the starting pitching? Why? Because they didn't hit 400 home runs?

Who cares how they get to that point, especially if it's on the back of the young pitching, which the organization has a decent amount of?

REALLY?

What am I missing?

The question is, what are you including?

if the O's pitch to a 2.xx ERA next year with no serious upgrades at the 3 infield positions, it could happen. Otherwise, 85 wins is a pipe dream.

So, what else gets us to 85 wins is the question.

[Sports Guy]

You would seriously be disappointed with a team that goes from 64 wins to 85 wins largely based on the successes of the starting pitching? Why? Because they didn't hit 400 home runs?

Who cares how they get to that point, especially if it's on the back of the young pitching, which the organization has a decent amount of? And which is probably relatively sustainable?

REALLY?

What am I missing?

Your original question focused around FA signings of Crede, Izzy and LaRoche. That's an awful offseason, regardless of what the exisiting players do.

AM doesn't deserve to stay on after having 2 extremely poor offseasons just because some of the existing young talent finally started to step up.

Yes, it would be great if the team itself did that..but that doesn't mean that my confidence in AM would have gone up. I have always said I felt he built a good foundation and could make us an 80-85 win team...My doubt is he can take us from 85 to 95 wins and that offseason wouldn't make me think he could..especially with so many good options out there.

[Hank Scorpio]

Your original question focused around FA signings of Crede, Izzy and LaRoche. That's an awful offseason, regardless of what the exisiting players do.

AM doesn't deserve to stay on after having 2 extremely poor offseasons just because some of the existing young talent finally started to step up.

Yes, it would be great if the team itself did that..but that doesn't mean that my confidence in AM would have gone up. I have always said I felt he built a good foundation and could make us an 80-85 win team...My doubt is he can take us from 85 to 95 wins and that offseason wouldn't make me think he could..especially with so many good options out there.

I disagree with the bolded. The crux of this whole thing revolves around the improvement of players that are already on the team, not the mediocre free agents MacPhail can lure to a team coming off consecutive 60-something win seasons.

And I intended my original question to focus around a team with those players on it winning 85 games. It was a hypothetical.

Frankly, I don't disagree that would be a crappy offseason... I wouldn't be very happy about Izturis returning in particular, but I'd be happy with 85 wins from a pitching staff as young as ours, Izturis or no Izturis.

[Sports Guy]

I disagree with the bolded. The crux of this whole thing revolves around the improvement of players that are already on the team, not the mediocre free agents MacPhail can lure to a team coming off consecutive 60-something win seasons.

And I intended my original question to focus around a team with those players on it winning 85 games. It was a hypothetical.

Frankly, I don't disagree that would be a crappy offseason... I wouldn't be very happy about Izturis returning in particular, but I'd be happy with 85 wins from a pitching staff as young as ours, Izturis or no Izturis.

Again, getting to 85 wins means we are Toronto. Do you want to be Toronto or Boston?

[Hank Scorpio]

Again, getting to 85 wins means we are Toronto. Do you want to be Toronto or Boston?

I think becoming Toronto next year puts us in a much better position to become Boston than where we stand now.

If you think there's enough out there this offseason to get us to Boston status next year, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

[Sports Guy]

I think becoming Toronto next year puts us in a much better position to become Boston than where we stand now.

If you think there's enough out there this offseason to get us to Boston status next year, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

You are really missing my point...My point isn't about 2011...Its about 2012. The plan you brought up doesn't help us long term and that is the problem and that's why AM wouldn't deserve any confidence bestowed his way, even if we did win 85 next year with essentially the same team we have now.

[Hank Scorpio]

SG, I hope you're right, man.

I wouldn't be upset if MacPhail figured out a way to lure in difference makers this offseason. I just don't see it happening.

[Hank Scorpio]

You are really msising my point...My point isn't about 2011...Its about 2012. The plan you brought up doesn't help us long term and that is the problem and that's why AM wouldn't deserve any confidence bestowed his way, even if we did win 85 next year with essentially the same team we have now.

How does having a talented young pitching staff not help us long term?

[Say O!]

The biggest fallacy of the 85-win benchmark is that the team would be capable of more in subsequent seasons.

Maybe young player improvement can get the O's to that threshold, but without above average minor league talent (aside from Britton), that 85 win level represents a ceiling, not stepping stone.

Unless more talent is brought into the organization (specifically at 1B, SS, 3B holes), the team will reach a stall point until lower level players (Machado, etc) reach the bigs. And at that point, roster turnover becomes an issue with guys like BRob, Scott and young guys start getting expensive.

For a team constructed around young players, if they are to ever really reach a contention level, then it won't be incremental wins, but instead a full step change jump like Tampa. None of this 78 win, 84 win, 89 win, 95 win climb...you either make the leap or you stay in the middle like the Blue Jays.

AM has this offseason to show us some creativity at bringing more talent into the organization beyond signing Wigginton and Izturis types. And that means FA acquisition AND trades. Bring in young guys who have the potential to make a leap forward (Bartlett, Butler, Reynolds, Sean Rodriguez, etc)...those are trade risks that teams like the O's need to gamble on.

[Roll Tide]

How does having a talented young pitching staff not help us long term?

Common Hank:rolleyes:

For the Orioles to be a force long term they need long term offensive solutions. If you cant get them to come via free agency then you need to trade for those pieces.

Be pitching strong is great ...But not the end all. Perhaps your recall early in the season when we were pitching well for a stretch but scoring no runs.