Comparing pre-Orioles Wigginton to LaRoche

[Frobby]

I thought this might be interesting.

Wigginton through 2008: .270/.330/.460, 110 HR 384 RBI in 2995 PA

LaRoche though 2010: .271/.339/.488, 161 HR 569 RBI in 3845 PA

Wigginton was 31-32 his two years on the Orioles. He posted a collective line of .258/.313/.409, 33 HR 117 RBI in 1085 PA.

If LaRoche were to do something parallel, we'd get maybe a .755-760 OPS from him in his first two seasons in Baltimore.

Realistically, I see LaRoche as a .750-.790 guy in the AL East the next couple of years. .820 would be a really good year for him. He's better than a lot of the dreck out there, and better than what we had in 2010 by a long shot. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking he's above average, because he isn't.

Again, for context, Kevin Millar posted a .768 OPS as an Oriole, Jeff Conine was .782, Palmeiro (round 2) was .792, Huff was .815. LaRoche plugs the disgraceful hole we had at 1B in 2010, but he's probably not much more than a composite of these 4 guys.

[Mad Mark]

I thought this might be interesting.

Wigginton through 2008: .270/.330/.460, 110 HR 384 RBI in 2995 PA

LaRoche though 2010: .271/.339/.488, 161 HR 569 RBI in 3845 PA

Wigginton was 31-32 his two years on the Orioles. He posted a collective line of .258/.313/.409, 33 HR 117 RBI in 1085 PA.

If LaRoche were to do something parallel, we'd get maybe a .755-760 OPS from him in his first two seasons in Baltimore.

Realistically, I see LaRoche as a .750-.790 guy in the AL East the next couple of years. .820 would be a really good year for him. He's better than a lot of the dreck out there, and better than what we had in 2010 by a long shot. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking he's above average, because he isn't.

Again, for context, Kevin Millar posted a .768 OPS as an Oriole, Jeff Conine was .782, Palmeiro (round 2) was .792, Huff was .815. LaRoche plugs the disgraceful hole we had at 1B in 2010, but he's probably not much more than a composite of these 4 guys.

Does this suggest to you that they should just plug Scott at 1B and look (perhaps) to someone like Guerrero as the primary 2011 DH?

[isestrex]

With Wiggy, Millar and even Huff, you knew what you had.

Even though LaRoche at 30, there still exists the potential for something more. I just took a look at Raffy's numbers from 91-93 (the three years preceding his first run). They are only slightly better than LaRoche's with 1 great year, 1 mediocre year and 1 dreadful year. He was 30 years old too when he signed with Baltimore.

I'm not saying that LaRoche will be another Palmeiro from 95-99, but LaRoche has higher upside than the other stop gaps we've tried over the past decade.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Thanks, Frobby. Wigginton was a pretty solid player during the three or four years before he hit FA. The O's and their fans have reason to feel that he underperformed expectations. But--as you mentioned in another thread--a lot of different outcomes are possible when a good-but-not-great player hits age 30 or 31.

I wonder whether LaRoche's consistency over the past several years indicates that he is likely to remain stable, if slightly declining, over the next 2-3 years. It would make me more sanguine about this possible deal.

Wigginton Part Deux would be a sideways step at best.

[Arthur_Bryant]

With Wiggy, Millar and even Huff, you knew what you had.

Even though LaRoche at 30, there still exists the potential for something more. I just took a look at Raffy's numbers from 91-93 (the three years preceding his first run). They are only slightly better than LaRoche's with 1 great year, 1 mediocre year and 1 dreadful year. He was 30 years old too when he signed with Baltimore.

I'm not saying that LaRoche will be another Palmeiro from 95-99, but LaRoche has higher upside than the other stop gaps we've tried over the past decade.

Palmeiro might have found a bit of a boost somewhere.

[cliff]

the thing that scares me most, is that with him and Reynolds, we would add almost 400 strikeouts to our starting lineup.

I was OK with Reynolds K's because he also sees a lot of pitches and takes a lot of walks --not to mention the power. But when you add another 172 K's to that, it makes me nervous.

I have a bad feeling (albeit based mostly on gut) we're going to regret not pursuing Derek Lee a little harder. He strikes out a little less, walks a little more, and bats right. (but who's to say they didn't go as hard as they could for him, and he just didn't want to come here).

[maybe2050]

I thought this might be interesting.

Wigginton through 2008: .270/.330/.460, 110 HR 384 RBI in 2995 PA

LaRoche though 2010: .271/.339/.488, 161 HR 569 RBI in 3845 PA

Wigginton was 31-32 his two years on the Orioles. He posted a collective line of .258/.313/.409, 33 HR 117 RBI in 1085 PA.

If LaRoche were to do something parallel, we'd get maybe a .755-760 OPS from him in his first two seasons in Baltimore.

Realistically, I see LaRoche as a .750-.790 guy in the AL East the next couple of years. .820 would be a really good year for him. He's better than a lot of the dreck out there, and better than what we had in 2010 by a long shot. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking he's above average, because he isn't.

Again, for context, Kevin Millar posted a .768 OPS as an Oriole, Jeff Conine was .782, Palmeiro (round 2) was .792, Huff was .815. LaRoche plugs the disgraceful hole we had at 1B in 2010, but he's probably not much more than a composite of these 4 guys.

I don't think for one second, that anyone would be able to get their hopes up for Laroche. Anytime that someone gets happy about what he might bring to the table, there's always 10 that break down the numbers until it shows him as total failure. Let's see Conine, Millar, Wigginton, and Laroche. "Yes, can't see getting my hopes up at all. Wigginton was the closest we had last year to driving in 100, and he only got 76. I can't believe that there's still actually a debate on whether his numbers are average. If Laroche is average, then the entire O's team was far below average. Roberts and Markakis are our 2 highest salaries this season, and Laroche blew their numbers away. Markakis had about 1/2 of the homers and 1/2 of the RBI's that Laroche did. Markakis did post a higher batting average though. Resigning Roberts and Markakis was advocated to death, but adding a player that brings actually more to the table than them is analized, debated, argued, and having to be fought with tooth and nail. Give the man the 3 years at anything less than $9 millon per, and let's move on.

[J.D.]

I don't think for one second, that anyone would be able to get their hopes up for Laroche. Anytime that someone gets happy about what he might bring to the table, there's always 10 that break down the numbers until it shows him as total failure. Let's see Conine, Millar, Wigginton, and Laroche. "Yes, can't see getting my hopes up at all. Wigginton was the closest we had last year to driving in 100, and he only got 76. I can't believe that there's still actually a debate on whether his numbers are average. If Laroche is average, then the entire O's team was far below average. Roberts and Markakis are our 2 highest salaries this season, and Laroche blew their numbers away. Markakis had about 1/2 of the homers and 1/2 of the RBI's that Laroche did. Markakis did post a higher batting average though. Resigning Roberts and Markakis was advocated to death, but adding a player that brings actually more to the table than them is analized, debated, argued, and having to be fought with tooth and nail. Give the man the 3 years at anything less than $9 millon per, and let's move on.

Markakis in 2010 = .805 OPS, 3.2 WAR, 119 OPS+

LaRoche in 2010 = .788 OPS, 1.2 WAR, 106 OPS+

Career? Markakis has played for 5 full seasons and has accumulated a 18.3 WAR. Average OPS is .831. Average OPS+ is 118.

LaRoche has played for 7 full seasons and has accumulated a 7.6 WAR. Average OPS is .827. Average OPS+ is 114.

Adam LaRoche is a worse player than Nick Markakis. It's not even really that close. To suggest otherwise is simply not factually correct.

[Frobby]

I don't think for one second, that anyone would be able to get their hopes up for Laroche. Anytime that someone gets happy about what he might bring to the table, there's always 10 that break down the numbers until it shows him as total failure. Let's see Conine, Millar, Wigginton, and Laroche. "Yes, can't see getting my hopes up at all. Wigginton was the closest we had last year to driving in 100, and he only got 76. I can't believe that there's still actually a debate on whether his numbers are average. If Laroche is average, then the entire O's team was far below average. Roberts and Markakis are our 2 highest salaries this season, and Laroche blew their numbers away. Markakis had about 1/2 of the homers and 1/2 of the RBI's that Laroche did. Markakis did post a higher batting average though. Resigning Roberts and Markakis was advocated to death, but adding a player that brings actually more to the table than them is analized, debated, argued, and having to be fought with tooth and nail. Give the man the 3 years at anything less than $9 millon per, and let's move on.

I hope you understand that I'm not against getting LaRoche. I do prefer Lee, but I can read the tea leaves and it seems pretty clear he doesn't want to play here. That leaves LaRoche as the clear best alternative. I'll be satisified if we sign him.

However, if you think LaRoche brings more to the table than Markakis or a healthy Roberts, you are mistaken. Home runs and RBI aren't a full measure of a hitter's contribution. And part of the point of my opening post is that stats compiled in the NL don't tend to lead to equivalent stats in the AL East. I'm not expecting 25 HR and 100 RBI from LaRoche if he plays for us next season. I hope he does accomplish that, but I am not counting on it. 20+ and 85 would be solid enough.

[MatthewW]

I thought this might be interesting.

Wigginton through 2008: .270/.330/.460, 110 HR 384 RBI in 2995 PA

LaRoche though 2010: .271/.339/.488, 161 HR 569 RBI in 3845 PA

Wigginton was 31-32 his two years on the Orioles. He posted a collective line of .258/.313/.409, 33 HR 117 RBI in 1085 PA.

If LaRoche were to do something parallel, we'd get maybe a .755-760 OPS from him in his first two seasons in Baltimore.

Realistically, I see LaRoche as a .750-.790 guy in the AL East the next couple of years. .820 would be a really good year for him. He's better than a lot of the dreck out there, and better than what we had in 2010 by a long shot. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking he's above average, because he isn't.

Again, for context, Kevin Millar posted a .768 OPS as an Oriole, Jeff Conine was .782, Palmeiro (round 2) was .792, Huff was .815. LaRoche plugs the disgraceful hole we had at 1B in 2010, but he's probably not much more than a composite of these 4 guys.

I think it is an interesting comparison. Wigginton signed a 2/$6M... So if LaRoche signs a 3/$18-$21M, is it a bad contract or was the Wigginton deal really a bargain?

[maybe2050]

I hope you understand that I'm not against getting LaRoche. I do prefer Lee, but I can read the tea leaves and it seems pretty clear he doesn't want to play here. That leaves LaRoche as the clear best alternative. I'll be satisified if we sign him.

However, if you think LaRoche brings more to the table than Markakis or a healthy Roberts, you are mistaken. Home runs and RBI aren't a full measure of a hitter's contribution. And part of the point of my opening post is that stats compiled in the NL don't tend to lead to equivalent stats in the AL East. I'm not expecting 25 HR and 100 RBI from LaRoche if he plays for us next season. I hope he does accomplish that, but I am not counting on it. 20+ and 85 would be solid enough.

Don't argue that at all. I believe that having Laroche in the lineup would provide protection to who bats around him, and provides a solid chance for Roberts and Markakis to score more runs themselves by being on base when Laroche and "Wonder Boy" on third comes up( between strike outs of course)

[maybe2050]

I think it is an interesting comparison. Wigginton signed a 2/$6M... So if LaRoche signs a 3/$18-$21M, is it a bad contract or was the Wigginton deal really a bargain?

What we got Wigginton for was a steal, considering what we got out of that player for his tenure here. But I also feel anything $9 million or below per year for Laroche is also a steal with the way the market has went this year. (Example: Crawford, Werth, Dunn)

[maybe2050]

This team will be ALOT better than when we had Wiggy. Bank on it.

This guy is a solid player, not a superstar but nothing but a total upgrade over ANYONE we had at first base last year.

Face it, the Orioles wont sign Fielder. Not with a 25 million a year asking price and Boras fronting him. Most every option is either going or gone and Laroche seems to be getting better.But one thing. He is notorious slow starter and will frustrate O's fans to no end in April and May.

If we're not gonna add Fielder, then your post about a week ago at least still has me curious. What did you mean about the Orioles will probably make 3-4 more moves, and one of them being a "mind blower" ? Do you have some info, or just a gut feeling ?

[Sports Guy]

Don't argue that at all. I believe that having Laroche in the lineup would provide protection to who bats around him, and provides a solid chance for Roberts and Markakis to score more runs themselves by being on base when Laroche and "Wonder Boy" on third comes up( between strike outs of course)

Do you think LaRoche is feared?

Do you agree that LaRoche is nothing more than a league average first baseman?

[Babypowder]

I don't think for one second, that anyone would be able to get their hopes up for Laroche. Anytime that someone gets happy about what he might bring to the table, there's always 10 that break down the numbers until it shows him as total failure. Let's see Conine, Millar, Wigginton, and Laroche. "Yes, can't see getting my hopes up at all. Wigginton was the closest we had last year to driving in 100, and he only got 76. I can't believe that there's still actually a debate on whether his numbers are average. If Laroche is average, then the entire O's team was far below average. Roberts and Markakis are our 2 highest salaries this season, and Laroche blew their numbers away. Markakis had about 1/2 of the homers and 1/2 of the RBI's that Laroche did. Markakis did post a higher batting average though. Resigning Roberts and Markakis was advocated to death, but adding a player that brings actually more to the table than them is analized, debated, argued, and having to be fought with tooth and nail. Give the man the 3 years at anything less than $9 millon per, and let's move on.

This is sound analysis, in 1975.