O's in the lead for Duchscherer

[BRob411]

Oh SNAP. Another reason for a rivalry! Fight over Duchsherer! Battle of the Beltways! Derrek Lee vs Adam LaRoche! Fight fight fight!

Derrek Lee chose the O's over the Nats and they settled for LaRoche, lets hope Duch does the same thing. Come on Duch sign with the O's, we have the better team.

[RVAbird]

Awesome. Thanks!

Here's a good example of his stuff:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7416193

Nasty breaking ball to JR around 20 seconds.

[ThatGuy]

Had no idea he had a sub-1.000 WHIP last time he pitched a full season... Impressive

[MatthewW]

To whom Elias makes more sense:

What would Duchscherer have to do in 2011 to become a type B?

He would have to do more in just over one year than all the type B's have been able to do in two years???

This guy appears to have 'cracked' the code.

Here is what he says are the factors for a SP

SP: Total Games (Games Started + 0.5*Games Relieved), IP, Wins, Winning Pct., ERA, K's

Not sure the actual formula, but I am almost 100% certain the stats are accumulated over the previous two years (it used to be that way anyway...)

[RVAbird]

He would have to do more in just over one year than all the type B's have been able to do in two years???

This guy appears to have 'cracked' the code.

Here is what he says are the factors for a SP

Not sure the actual formula, but I am almost 100% certain the stats are accumulated over the previous two years (it used to be that way anyway...)

They definitely look at two year periods, but I was just curious how much they valued accumulation over rate.

For example, if, say, Duchscherer stayed healthy enough to pitch 180 innings of 3.50 ball, combining for about 210 IP to a 3.40 ERA, would Elias ranking him lower than someone who threw 320 IP to a 4.30 ERA?

Just curious. They've made it clear what they value, but not the formula, if there even is one.

[harp6]

I'm fine with Duch if they sign him. But does anyone think that the O's want to stay away from Millwood partly because of perception. He's a horse, had some good stretches and we know he's healthy. Which no other option can claim for sure. I think they just want to clear themselves from a bad reminder of last year. I think he is best left out there, but I understand their thinking if they don't think there is a slam dunk difference. Anyone agree? Or do I stand alone.

I can understand wanting a good pitcher that gives a team 32 starts with about 7 innings a start. What I can't understand is why people want bad pitchers because they "eat innings." Last year Millwood pitched 31 games for 190 innings. 17 of those 31 starts he gave up 4 or more runs. His record during those 17 starts was 1-13 with three no decisions. Wow, he "ate innings," but he constantly lost games for this team.

Arrieta only gave up 4 or more runs in 7 of 18 starts.

Tillman only gave up 4 or more runs in 4 of 11 starts.

Bergesen gave up 4 or more runs in 16 of 28 starts but was much better the second half of the season and is young.

Matusz only gave up 4 or more runs in 9 of 32 starts.

Guthrie only gave up 4 or more runs in 12 of 32 starts.

There were a couple starts that these young pitchers did leave early for some reason. Most of these young pitchers were better and more exciting to watch than Millwood.

I do not want the O's to sign any of the many bad pitchers still available because they "eat innings."

I want the O's to sign pitchers that can "win."

I would rather the O's sign a high risk pitcher that may only give 15-20 starts, but give us a chance to win those games. Duchscherer is one of those players. Duchscherer would take a little stress off of our young pitchers and would give a chance to win. If we can't get one of these type of pitchers, then I would rather the team go with what they currently have and call up some pitchers from the minors when needed. That is much better than a bad "inning eater."

[hobokenPauli]

I want the O's to sign pitchers that can "win."

I would rather the O's sign a high risk pitcher that may only give 15-20 starts, but give us a chance to win those games. Duchscherer is one of those players. Duchscherer would take a little stress off of our young pitchers and would give a chance to win. If we can't get one of these type of pitchers, then I would rather the team go with what they currently have and call up some pitchers from the minors when needed. That is much better than a bad "inning eater."

--

I agree.

One other thing is the type of pitcher Duchscherer is...his fastball sits about 85-87 mph and he only pitches with it about 45% of time. His cutter and curve are both ++ pitches according to fangraphs.

From a "stuff" perspective I think "Duke's" stuff would have a beneficial effect on the young pitching because he could actually teach, say, Tillman how to throw a cutter and others how to throw: change, slider or curve. From a "style" perspective Duke's "backward" style also plays well because he doesn't lead with the fastball. Matusz want to drop his fastball percentage into the mid 40's like Duke.

Anyway, Millwood stuff and style just wasn't beneficial for the young O's in 2010 and wouldn't be in 2011.

[Guest Hayden2004]

According to my sources I can guarantee you that justin duchscherer's home games will be on masn

:2yay-thumb::2yay-thumb::2yay-thumb:

[BRob411]

According to my sources I can guarantee you that justin duchscherer's home games will be on masn

:2yay-thumb::2yay-thumb::2yay-thumb:

Nice one LOL

[olehippi]

Two things are certain:

(1) Duchscherer would be considered a "veteran pitcher" in age only (33) since he has pitched in a total of only 58 games during an 8 year ML career.

(2) Duchscherer can not be considered an "innings eater" since the most innings he has pitched in a season is 141.

Coming off hip surgery that disabled him for almost two seasons, he could be a good low cost, high rewards guy, but IMO offering him a ML contract and guaranteeing he will start could very easily negate the plus side of signing him. If the deal is that he will get the opportunity to win the starting spot, and is willing to go to the BP or the minors, then that's a different story.

But if they are guaranteeing him a starting spot, my question would be why do the Orioles think Duchscherer will be any better than Tillman, the pitcher he would likely bump from the rotation?

[McLovin]

The Sun says he wants to be on the east because his son lives in south Jersey. Well, Baltimore is a little closer than DC...

[SteveA]

Two things are certain:

(1) Duchscherer would be considered a "veteran pitcher" in age only (33) since he has pitched in a total of only 58 games during an 8 year ML career.

(2) Duchscherer can not be considered an "innings eater" since the most innings he has pitched in a season is 141.

Coming off hip surgery that disabled him for almost two seasons, he could be a good low cost, high rewards guy, but IMO offering him a ML contract and guaranteeing he will start could very easily negate the plus side of signing him. If the deal is that he will get the opportunity to win the starting spot, and is willing to go to the BP or the minors, then that's a different story.

But if they are guaranteeing him a starting spot, my question would be why do the Orioles think Duchscherer will be any better than Tillman, the pitcher he would likely bump from the rotation?

Who in the world has said they are "guaranteeing him a starting spot". MacPhail explicitly said yesterday that one issue in bringing in that potential extra starting pitcher is that he won't guarantee a starting spot and that can be a sticking point. Has something changed in the past 24 hours?

[olehippi]

Who in the world has said they are "guaranteeing him a starting spot". MacPhail explicitly said yesterday that one issue in bringing in that potential extra starting pitcher is that he won't guarantee a starting spot and that can be a sticking point. Has something changed in the past 24 hours?

Nothing has changed, and my post wasn't worded well. But I was suggesting the possibility of someone - the O's maybe -sweetening the offer by guaranteeing a starting position since 3 teams - O's Nats, and Mariners - have now offered Duchscherer ML contracts. And yes, that's unlikely to happen.

[LA2]

Yeah but he threw 6.44 innings per start that year. Perfectly serviceable as a bridge to Britton/Tillman.

But why did he appear in only 22 games that year?

[LA2]

Why do we want "less talent"?

I know, we already have our starting five. Plus Britton. But EVERY team has starting pitcher injuries. And believe it or not, as much as we like the 5 young guys in our rotation, one of them may prove he isn't really good enough to be in a major league rotation. I know that's blasphemy, but there are any number of young pitchers who look good when they first come up but don't make it last long term. I can't think of many pitchers who were as dominant as Oliver Perez was his first year with Pittsburgh and now he's crap.

It almost seems like people here are AFRAID of signing somone who could turn out to be better than one of our young guys. That is utterly ridiculous.

Nope, I'm just afraid of hiring someone who will most likely get injured--if that happens to be the case with Duchscherer.