Orioles sign Vlad

[Hank Scorpio]

It is a certain, unarguable fact that NOBODY can say whether or not the Orioles will make the playoffs this year...If they do, it would be quite difficult to call any of the offseason moves "bad".

Well what the hell are we all doing here, playing pattycake?

It's a message board.

[Sports Guy]

Well what the hell are we all doing here, playing pattycake?

It's a message board.

LOL....some people think a message board is for everything but discussion.

[Crazysilver03]

It is a certain, unarguable fact that NOBODY can say whether or not the Orioles will make the playoffs this year...If they do, it would be quite difficult to call any of the offseason moves "bad".

Incorrect. Moves can be independently awful regardless of the outcome.

[statman]

Well what the hell are we all doing here, playing pattycake?

It's a message board.

Some people come on this board and just spout off about how the O's have no chance at competing...calling the Vlad move "nonsense" because it "doesn't push us over the top". In reality, we have no idea what will happen. We can assume based on past performance, but the majority of people that I've seen on the OH take projections as fact...there is a clear difference between the two.

I guess my question is, how are you so certain that the Vlad addition DOESN'T make us better than we already were and/or push us into contention?

[davearm]

If you are right and the O's don't contend and Vlad leaves after one year then I will agree that paying $8m for him was not a smart move.

Given this standard, then the Stotle camp is much more likely to be proven out than the wildcard/Buck camp.

The O's chances of contending into September are still not very good.

Not that they're definitive or anything, but it will be interesting to see what the various sabermetric season simulators crank out in the next month or so. I'm expecting projected win totals for the O's in the 72-80 range, personally.

[allstar1579]

Given this standard, then the Stotle camp is much more likely to be proven out than the wildcard/Buck camp.

The O's chances of contending into September are still not very good.

Not that they're definitive or anything, but it will be interesting to see what the various sabermetric season simulators crank out in the next month or so. I'm expecting win totals for the O's in the 72-80 range, personally.

Just based on the majority of games we have to play against the NYY, BOS, and TB not to mention tough games against TOR you could say that. If we were say in the West we could be good enough to win, or compete, but not in this division.

[statman]

Given this standard, then the Stotle camp is much more likely to be proven out than the wildcard/Buck camp.

The O's chances of contending into September are still not very good.

Not that they're definitive or anything, but it will be interesting to see what the various sabermetric season simulators crank out in the next month or so. I'm expecting win totals for the O's in the 72-80 range, personally.

What if we get back a good prospect in a deadline trade? It's not like we are handcuffed going forward on a 1 year deal. Projections are for fools. How many home runs did these "sabermetricians" have Jose Bautista hitting last season?

[TakebackOPACY]

I am making my own argument. I researched how Buck turns a team around, which is what he was brought to the O's to do, and I believe that the Vlad signing is part of that plan. I am pointing out that Stotle's opposition to the Vlad trade going against how Buck is building the team.

I am not positive about the Drese move but I like the suggestion that he was brought in to mentor younger players and is bound for the minors.

I am not sure the Hendrickson is a Buck move. It appears to be MacPhail running out of money and try to get a lefty on the cheap.

I am not sure who's move Accardo is. He certainly is not a major piece on the team. I am perfectly willing to say that whoever wants Accardo on the team knows more about why he want them then I do. He appears to be below the talent level of the other acquisitions this off season. I will have to wait to see why he was brought in.

...I know Andy and the scouts are still grinding out a lot of possible things that we may do to our club... Andy and our scouts are grinding it daily about bringing in some other people that kind of expand our picking pool a little bit... [on Vlad]Let's wait and see if that happens, ya know, I know, I'll leave that in the very capable hands of Andy MacPhail and his front office.

http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2011/01/28/buck-showalter-live-on-the-scott-garceau-show/

[Crazysilver03]

Just based on the majority of games we have to play against the NYY, BOS, and TB not to mention tough games against TOR you could say that. If we were say in the West we could be good enough to win, or compete, but not in this division.

Which is also the same reason that I don't think Boston can win more than 100 games, because they will have 72 tough games against the AL East.

[Crazysilver03]

What if we get back a good prospect in a deadline trade? It's not like we are handcuffed going forward on a 1 year deal. Projections are for fools. How many home runs did these "sabermetricians" have Jose Bautista hitting last season?

So a person whose user name is "statman" asks why the stats didn't project a major outlier. Ironic.

Projections aren't for fools. The fools are the people that don't understand that a projection is just that. Also, the fools are the people that call other people fools.

If we trade someone for a good prospect, then that means we are out of contention. Just a few posts ago weren't you mentioning how the Orioles were in contention?

[Hank Scorpio]

Some people come on this board and just spout off about how the O's have no chance at competing...calling the Vlad move "nonsense" because it "doesn't push us over the top". In reality, we have no idea what will happen. We can assume based on past performance, but the majority of people that I've seen on the OH take projections as fact...there is a clear difference between the two.

I guess my question is, how are you so certain that the Vlad addition DOESN'T make us better than we already were and/or push us into contention?

I'm just stating my opinion. And I'm typically not one to suggest that it's fact - but really, Vlad is a name and that's all well and good. But history tells you not to trust guys who are in their mid 30's. All baseball players hit a wall at some point in their careers, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Lee and Guerrero struggle mightily this year. Plus, Vlad makes our outfield defense worse than it was with Scott at DH and Pie in LF. Yes, the offense will be better.

My underlying point here is this: If the Orioles are going to contend in 2011, it's not going to be because they signed Vlad. It's going to be because their starting pitching turns into something it wasn't last year.

[statman]

So a person whose user name is "statman" asks why the stats didn't project a major outlier. Ironic.

Projections aren't for fools. The fools are the people that don't understand that a projection is just that. Also, the fools are the people that call other people fools.

If we trade someone for a good prospect, then that means we are out of contention. Just a few posts ago weren't you mentioning how the Orioles were in contention?

Why don't you tell that to half of the OH who has already said that the Vlad addition is a "bust". If you haven't caught on to my posts yet, I don't predict anything. I didn't say the O's were going to compete, I merely asked how everyone was so certain that they wouldn't? If we get back a good prospect for a player that we won't have next year anyways, I don't see how that is "bad"...

My name is "statman" because I enjoy analyzing the stats AFTER they happen. I'm an engineer and thus, numbers are a huge part of my life. I find it quite stupid to believe any of these "projections" that can't possibly take into account slumps, injuries, break-out seasons, falling-off seasons, comeback seasons, etc. There are far too many extraneous factors when predicting something like baseball stats/standings than there are in predicting when a piece of steel will fail.

[davearm]

Why don't you tell that to half of the OH who has already said that the Vlad addition is a "bust". If you haven't caught on to my posts yet, I don't predict anything. I didn't say the O's were going to compete, I merely asked how everyone was so certain that they wouldn't? If we get back a good prospect for a player that we won't have next year anyways, I don't see how that is "bad"...

My name is "statman" because I enjoy analyzing the stats AFTER they happen. I'm an engineer and thus, numbers are a huge part of my life. I find it quite stupid to believe any of these "projections" that can't possibly take into account slumps, injuries, break-out seasons, falling-off seasons, comeback seasons, etc. There are far too many extraneous factors when predicting something like baseball stats/standings than there are in predicting when a piece of steel will fail.

Using your logic, predicting when a piece of steel will fail is hopeless too.

You can't possibly take into account wind, rain, snow, salt, extreme heat and cold, avalanches, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

My name is "statman" because I enjoy analyzing the stats AFTER they happen. I'm an engineer and thus, numbers are a huge part of my life. I find it quite stupid to believe any of these "projections" that can't possibly take into account slumps, injuries, break-out seasons, falling-off seasons, comeback seasons, etc. There are far too many extraneous factors when predicting something like baseball stats/standings than there are in predicting when a piece of steel will fail.

I've been an electrical engineer for nearly 20 years, and I find projection systems to be endlessly interesting, and wonderful tools.

[statman]

I'm just stating my opinion. And I'm typically not one to suggest that it's fact - but really, Vlad is a name and that's all well and good. But history tells you not to trust guys who are in their mid 30's. All baseball players hit a wall at some point in their careers, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Lee and Guerrero struggle mightily this year. Plus, Vlad makes our outfield defense worse than it was with Scott at DH and Pie in LF. Yes, the offense will be better.

My underlying point here is this: If the Orioles are going to contend in 2011, it's not going to be because they signed Vlad. It's going to be because their starting pitching turns into something it wasn't last year.

I agree with you that the success of our season depends on the growth/production of our young pitchers. I also believe that Vlad's production from last year represents the ceiling of what a Reimold/Pie platoon can accomplish. I don't think it's wise to rely on ceilings on your everyday lineup. I understand that players "hit walls", but so far, Vlad's overall numbers show no signs of a dropoff unless he is injured.