Orioles sign Vlad

[statman]

Using your logic, predicting when a piece of steel will fail is hopeless too.

You can't possibly take into account wind, rain, snow, salt, extreme heat and cold, avalanches, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.

What you just listed are a bunch of measurable quantities...things like slumps and injuries are not.

[statman]

I've been an electrical engineer for nearly 20 years, and I find projection systems to be endlessly interesting, and wonderful tools.

haha I'll agree that they are "interesting". Personally, I just don't put much stock into them. Maybe I'd have a better appreciation for them if I could see the equations behind the numbers...but even then, pretending that you know what will happen over the course of a season with so many extraneous factors (injuries, slumps, comeback seasons (i.e. Webb, Duchscherer), etc.) seems a bit outlandish to me.

[allstar1579]

Which is also the same reason that I don't think Boston can win more than 100 games, because they will have 72 tough games against the AL East.

Yeah I'm inclined to think by the 3 top teams in the AL all in the same division, they will probably all end up above 90 games, but no one over 100, that opens the door for a team in another division to sneak in and steal the wild card. Say if one division has two AWFUL teams in it that teams can just beat up on.

[SrMeowMeow]

What you just listed are a bunch of measurable quantities...things like slumps and injuries are not.

But the probabilities are measurable or at least can be estimated...

You realize that your position comes down to "if I were a GM, I would be fully and constantly paralyzed and unable to make a decision", right?

Actually, I don't see how you can make ANY decision if you are only willing to "analyze stats after the fact", whatever that means. Projecting when you will run out of milk is just as much an estimate as projecting how many wins a team will have, it's just way less complex. And I'm sure you have no conceptual problem with looking in the fridge and saying "that milk will be gone by the weekend, I might as well grab some more now".

[Arthur_Bryant]

I agree with you that the success of our season depends on the growth/production of our young pitchers. I also believe that Vlad's production from last year represents the ceiling of what a Reimold/Pie platoon can accomplish. I don't think it's wise to rely on ceilings on your everyday lineup. I understand that players "hit walls", but so far, Vlad's overall numbers show no signs of a dropoff unless he is injured.

Unfortunately, Vlad's production from last year may also represent his realistic ceiling in 2011.

[davearm]

What you just listed are a bunch of measurable quantities...things like slumps and injuries are not.

Sorry but that's a bunch of crap.

I can give you low/medium/high projections of a guy's games played and slash stats, just easily as you can give me low/medium/high weather outcomes.

The notion that the very nature of baseball defies any reasonable forecasting efforts is just laughable.

[jiminnj]

I understand that players "hit walls", but so far, Vlad's overall numbers show no signs of a dropoff unless he is injured.

When you look at Vlad's OPS since 2002, I can't image how someone who is into stats can not see signs of a dropoff.

year....OPS

2002...1.010

2003...1.012

2004.....989

2005.....959

2006.....934

2007.....950

2008.....896

2009.....794

2010.....841

[El Gordo]

When you look at Vlad's OPS since 2002, I can't image how someone who is into stats can not see signs of a dropoff.

year....OPS

2002...1.010

2003...1.012

2004.....989

2005.....959

2006.....934

2007.....950

2008.....896

2009.....794

2010.....841

Given that his peripherals have staid up, I don't see him crashing and burning, but also don't see him putting up last season's numbers either. I'd hope for between .800 -.830 OPS.

[Peace21]

When you look at Vlad's OPS since 2002, I can't image how someone who is into stats can not see signs of a dropoff.

year....OPS

2002...1.010

2003...1.012

2004.....989

2005.....959

2006.....934

2007.....950

2008.....896

2009.....794

2010.....841

This is his OPS right now at Camden Yards.

[jiminnj]

This is his OPS right now at Camden Yards.

Career numbers probably are very misleading when there is such evidence for a steady decline,

[Peace21]

Career numbers probably are very misleading when there is such evidence for a steady decline,

Decline?

Have you seen his numbers against the top pitchers in our division? I get he is getting up there in age. But the guy can still mash. And besides its a one year deal it isn't like the team signed him to a multi year deal. Lets just enjoy the guy and his talents while he is here. Plus the batters around him in this lineup will make him better this season.

[jiminnj]

Decline?

Have you seen his numbers against the top pitchers in our division? I get he is getting up there in age. But the guy can still mash. And besides its a one year deal it isn't like the team signed him to a multi year deal. Lets just enjoy the guy and his talents while he is here. Plus the batters around him in this lineup will make him better this season.

His numbers against top pitchers in our divsion are career numbers, probably meaningless today (he is in decline).

He is getting up there in age, he use to be able to run like the wind and field well, his world series show in RF should have been an eye opener for anyone who does not have some questions about his continuing ability to play baseball at a high level. (I am not sure but I sure have some doubts).

Can he still mash? I hope so, he sure had a bad July, a bad August, and a bad post season last year. He did have a good September.

I am happy it is a one-year deal, anything longer would have been stupid.

Are our batters better than he had around him in Texas last year?

I hope Vlad has a tremendous year. I just have my doubts. I think it is very foolish to look at his career numbers and expect anything similar out of him. His OPS has been in pretty steady decline for 6-7 years, and he no longer is a prime physical specimen without medical concerns.

I hope he does not decline precipitously. Signing him was a gamble, it has a lot of upside, but there certainly is more than a small chance of a considerable down side.

[waroriole]

What if we get back a good prospect in a deadline trade? It's not like we are handcuffed going forward on a 1 year deal. Projections are for fools. How many home runs did these "sabermetricians" have Jose Bautista hitting last season?

OldFan????

[weams]

OldFan????

They have a mighty potion up in AA land. ~d suggests that they are told that whatever can not be seen in tests is fair game in that country. I tend to agree. That will mess with any statistical analysis.

[TonySoprano]

This is his OPS right now at Camden Yards.

....when facing Orioles pitching.