Keith Law: O's early intention to pick Hultzen or Jed Bradley

[eb45]

Any truth to the rumors that Bundy has flashed triple digits?

[Stotle]

Any truth to the rumors that Bundy has flashed triple digits?

I have not heard that from any reliable sources.

[RandyM]

Who would you take Stotle?

Does us not having another pick till the 60 pick change our risk aversion? Higher or lower?

Does this being a pretty deep draft allow us to go riskier because we can pick up that "safe" #3/4 pitcher with our 2nd round pick?

I personally can't see us taking anything other than a college pitcher. I assume if all the same we would love to take a college hitter, but there isn't one to justify at the 4th pick.

Do the HS hitters/pitchers have that much more upside to reduce the risk vs. the college pitchers? I don't think so.

I personally would love to get Starling or even potentially one of the HS arms, but there better be a grade difference for me to select one of those over a college pitcher. College pitcher wins all tie breakers for me.

[waroriole]

I am a huge Bundy fan, but keep in mind his brother, pitching four months removed from ACL surgery as senior at Sperry HS in 2008, put up these numbers:

0.8 ERA, 54 IP, 13 H, 6 BB, 111 SO

Oklahoma HS baseball not exactly Southern California. Granted, Dylan Bundy showed well in Florida tourney this spring, as well.

I'd have him 1 or 2 HS pitcher in draft, along with Daniel Norris.

Stotle, you're the best source for amateur scouting that I know. It's cool that you come on and share your opinions.

[Stotle]

Who would you take Stotle?

Does us not having another pick till the 60 pick change our risk aversion? Higher or lower?

Does this being a pretty deep draft allow us to go riskier because we can pick up that "safe" #3/4 pitcher with our 2nd round pick?

I personally can't see us taking anything other than a college pitcher. I assume if all the same we would love to take a college hitter, but there isn't one to justify at the 4th pick.

Do the HS hitters/pitchers have that much more upside to reduce the risk vs. the college pitchers? I don't think so.

I personally would love to get Starling or even potentially one of the HS arms, but there better be a grade difference for me to select one of those over a college pitcher. College pitcher wins all tie breakers for me.

We run a shadow draft at Camden Depot. Since we drafted Whitson last year and he didn't sign, we get two picks this year. My choices right now for those would be Gray and one of Starling/Bundy/Norris/Jed Bradley.

Since BAL only has one pick, and I am not sold on them developing a blank canvass like Starling, I'd go with a college arm or Bundy/Norris. Gun to my head today, it would be Sonny Gray (Vandy).

[palmer22]

Thanks for the perspective on Bundy's numbers Stotle. Just curious as to why you prefer Gray to Bradley...

[RandyM]

We run a shadow draft at Camden Depot. Since we drafted Whitson last year and he didn't sign, we get two picks this year. My choices right now for those would be Gray and one of Starling/Bundy/Norris/Jed Bradley.

Since BAL only has one pick, and I am not sold on them developing a blank canvass like Starling, I'd go with a college arm or Bundy/Norris. Gun to my head today, it would be Sonny Gray (Vandy).

Yeah our track record of developing hitters, even HS has been terrible. I would have a tough time thinking we would go with a HS hitter when a high ceiling/safe college pitcher is sitting there.

I know you don't like providing comps. But is Oswalt a decent comp for Gray? How do his pitches grade out now and in the future? Do you have a link on your site for this info?

[Stotle]

Yeah our track record of developing hitters, even HS has been terrible. I would have a tough time thinking we would go with a HS hitter when a high ceiling/safe college pitcher is sitting there.

I know you don't like providing comps. But is Oswalt a decent comp for Gray? How do his pitches grade out now and in the future? Do you have a link on your site for this info?

Oswalt is a comp I dropped on Gray at the end of Summer 2009, due to his size. I think it still fits, though the shape of the breaking ball is obviously different, and Gray has a stockier build. It's heavy praise, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Gray develop along the lines of a Tim Lincecum. His top two pitches are absolutely that good -- whether he hits that ceiling will be dependent on his change-up. I have no doubt he has the stamina and arm strength to stay a starter.

My scouting stuff for the draft is located here (thanks for asking): www.DiamondScapeScouting.com

I'm just finishing with updated positional rankings, with my new Top 300 coming out at the end of the week and my "Should Draft" posting Friday or Monday. Player reports will be coming out from here through signing day, and I'm also publishing O's-related scouting reports here at OH (probably starting this week if it fits into Chris's/Tony's/Scottie's publishing schedule).

[Stotle]

Thanks for the perspective on Bundy's numbers Stotle. Just curious as to why you prefer Gray to Bradley...

Track record, primarily, and consistency in stuff. Gray has been a force since the summer after his freshman year, and was very good out of the pen his frosh year as well. His two-summer Team USA numbers are ungodly, and the quality of his fastball/curve are legit future plus-plus offerings. I think Bradley has a wider repertoire, but is further away from a polished product. Both are close for me, but I give the nod to Gray.

[LookinUp]

Track record, primarily, and consistency in stuff. Gray has been a force since the summer after his freshman year, and was very good out of the pen his frosh year as well. His two-summer Team USA numbers are ungodly, and the quality of his fastball/curve are legit future plus-plus offerings. I think Bradley has a wider repertoire, but is further away from a polished product. Both are close for me, but I give the nod to Gray.

Two future plus-plus offerings? He could throw an average change and it would be useful. Sign me up.

[LookinUp]

Every one of these guys are arguably top 3 talents in most drafts and have high ceilings with very good likelihood of reaching them. However, I think the college pitchers are the more logical picks given ceiling and floors and factoring for organizational need. Not to say that I wouldn't love Starling, but I'd love Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, Gray, and Bradley more than Starling.

Nice post, and I agree. I'm not arguing for Starling over the college pitchers, I'm arguing that he deserves very legit consideration.

[TJ Wrangler]

Nice post, and I agree. I'm not arguing for Starling over the college pitchers, I'm arguing that he deserves very legit consideration.

He absolutley has legit consideration, and theres a strong case to pick him at 1:4 over any of the guys I listed ahead of him. In all reality, if Hultzen goes 1:3 and we don't pick Gray, I probably would prefer the upside of Starling to Bradley. I keep going back and fourth between those two.

[palmer22]

Track record, primarily, and consistency in stuff. Gray has been a force since the summer after his freshman year, and was very good out of the pen his frosh year as well. His two-summer Team USA numbers are ungodly, and the quality of his fastball/curve are legit future plus-plus offerings. I think Bradley has a wider repertoire, but is further away from a polished product. Both are close for me, but I give the nod to Gray.

Thanks Stotle. I did notice that based on Bradley's numbers at Tech that this is the first year he's been under an ERA of 4...

[Hutman]

Track record, primarily, and consistency in stuff. Gray has been a force since the summer after his freshman year, and was very good out of the pen his frosh year as well. His two-summer Team USA numbers are ungodly, and the quality of his fastball/curve are legit future plus-plus offerings. I think Bradley has a wider repertoire, but is further away from a polished product. Both are close for me, but I give the nod to Gray.

Law in his most recent chat says he favors Bradley over Hultzen because Bradley still has projection, while Hultzen is near the top of his projection. I still like Hultzen better because he's a safer bet, but both guys are very good.

[Stotle]

Law in his most recent chat says he favors Bradley over Hultzen because Bradley still has projection, while Hultzen is near the top of his projection. I still like Hultzen better because he's a safer bet, but both guys are very good.

I prefer Bradley to Hultzen, as well.

Cole/Gray/Bradley/Jungmann/Hultzen