Signing Vlad was big mistake

[Frobby]

I think we can all stipulate that if Vlad hits .265/.265/.398, he will have been a terrible signing. Am I ready to conclude that he will end up somewhere near that neighborhood? No, not at all. 83 plate appearances are not enough.

[DrungoHazewood]

NOBODY. NOBODY is hitting on this damn team and you're going to attack Vlad of all people? One of the greatest pure hitters of this generation! Why don't you attack Markakis? Reynolds? Lee? Jones? It seems the only way this team scores any runs is if the lineup turns over and Brob knocks them. God forbid they try to do anything with less than 2 outs.

Don't worry, those threads are coming.

[Dipper9]

Don't worry, those threads are coming.

No doubt.

Look, I am as frustrated as anyone right now, but it kills me how 20 games into the season we suddenly think that the same players we were giddy about 2 weeks ago suddenly we want off the team and think were bad signings. Lets be honest here, while we can nitpick certain moves here and there, the majority of us thought this team could win anywhere from 75-85 games this season. I don't think 2 bad weeks of baseball is going to change any of that. The truth is, we SUCK right now, and thus we are all pissed, but 2 weeks ago we sat at 6-1 and in first place in the AL East. In both cases, it was small sample sizes and neither streak was going to last.

Lets take 2 out of 3 from Bahston and we'll all feel better by the weekend.

[Wilshade]

Vlad, Lee, and to a lesser extent, Reynolds are basically stop gaps with some upside potential. That's how I look at it anyway. It gives some key young guys in the minors the chance to develop. The one-year deals also won't interfere with the Orioles pursuing key free agents next year.

Last year's season-long attempts to bring up all of our young guys did not exactly do the Orioles or them any good.

If Weiters keeps up what he is doing now, he might be ready for middle-of-the-order.

[flashjordnk]

Its way toooo early to say anything conclusively about Vlad. The way the ball flies out of Camden in the summer Vlad could hit 30 HR and drive in 100 runs before the end of the year. If he does, only his hardest critics will talk badly about him not walking or being slow.

Meh...it's way early. But it's not longer way toooo early. It's still early, and I'm willing to give Vlad another 4 weeks. But people said 2 weeks ago it was too early. We're nearing 100 PA's. No walks, No HBP's. Poor contact rates.

It goes like this:

If you have good at bats, but have unlucky results I can be optomisitc, I will expect a regression to the mean based on your outputs. Your bad numbers will go up. A good example is Nick Markakis. His BABIP won't be 200 all year. He's a guy I worry in general about, but I'm not worried.

If you have bad at bats and have lucky results, I'm not thrilled, but I can be happy but a regression to the mean will be expected. Your great numbers will probably drop, but your terrible approach can be tolerated based on results. A good example is Guthrie.

If you have bad at bats, and bad results I'm worried that the talent doesn't match the expectations. Be it a young guy, or an old guy. What we thought we'd get isn't what we get.

What have you seen from Vlad that puts him in column A, specifically this year? And does Vlad LOOK like the same guy to you right now?

[webbrick2010]

First off I am not attacking Vlad... I am attacking the decision to sign Vlad. Furthermore I expect Vlad to be a better hitter than D. Lee or Mark Reynolds. The problem with the Vlad signing is that it did not fill a need. Luke Scott was already an excellent DH. I do not believe that Vlad will be better enough offensively (over Reimold/Pie) to compenstate for the reduction in defense and team speed. There is another thread pointing out that the O's are last in stolen bases. They have a very slow lineup. If Vlad gets on base you need 3 singles, 2 doubles, or a HR to score him from 1B. Unless he hits 30+ HR's which he will not, he does not make the O's a better team

[DrungoHazewood]

I think we can all stipulate that if Vlad hits .265/.265/.398, he will have been a terrible signing. Am I ready to conclude that he will end up somewhere near that neighborhood? No, not at all. 83 plate appearances are not enough.

Last year he had a .622 OPS in July. He improved 100 points a month after that. In 2009 he had a .638 OPS with three unintentional walks in his first 114 PAs. In April/May 2008 he had an 82 PA streak where he put up a .593 OPS, and grounded into more double plays than he had unintentional walks.

All we know about his 2011 performance is that he's done this before and recovered. Almost every year. He may well come back again and hit.

[Sports Guy]

First off I am not attacking Vlad... I am attacking the decision to sign Vlad. Furthermore I expect Vlad to be a better hitter than D. Lee or Mark Reynolds. The problem with the Vlad signing is that it did not fill a need. Luke Scott was already an excellent DH. I do not believe that Vlad will be better enough offensively (over Reimold/Pie) to compenstate for the reduction in defense and team speed. There is another thread pointing out that the O's are last in stolen bases. They have a very slow lineup. If Vlad gets on base you need 3 singles, 2 doubles, or a HR to score him from 1B. Unless he hits 30+ HR's which he will not, he does not make the O's a better team

I don't really disagree with any of this except there is a chance he will hit 30 homers..I wouldn't rule that out yet.

However, as I said, I think we are a better overall team without Vlad than with him.

Just hope his signing allows us to trade him and Luke and bring in some good young talent and have Pie and Reimold playing everyday in the second half of the season.

That is the scenario where this works out the best for the club.

[El Gordo]

Oh, no, you make darn sure Jones never gets a pass on anything, no matter how trivial.

The main difference between these numbers: .229 .267 .414 .681 and these: .265 .265 .398 .663 is one HR. the former gets a pass and the latter is the reason the team can't score runs?

[flashjordnk]

Last year he had a .622 OPS in July. He improved 100 points a month after that. In 2009 he had a .638 OPS with three unintentional walks in his first 114 PAs. In April/May 2008 he had an 82 PA streak where he put up a .593 OPS, and grounded into more double plays than he had unintentional walks.

All we know about his 2011 performance is that he's done this before and recovered. Almost every year. He may well come back again and hit.

From July 1, 2010 through Oct 3 2010 Vlad Slugged 419. He OPSed 730. And had a BABIP of 266 over 332 PA's.

In 16 PA's in the post season he had 1 hit, no extra base hits and struck out 5 times and walked once.

Thus far in 2011, Vlad has slugged 398. He has OPSed 663. His BABIP is 284. 83 PA's.

The Vlad we are seeing right now is exactly the Vlad that the Rangers saw from 346 PA's last year. Look at the slugging, 21 points off, the OPS is 70 points lower because of the 19 slugging and the complete in ability to take a walk.

The contact rates are down. The pitches in the zone are up. Vlad hit some kind of wall at the middle of the year last year, and he hasn't recovered. This is not a small sample size, this drought ranges way way back for him. And if we don't pay attention to about 400 PA's and say that Vlad might just not have it, we aren't being fair.

[atlantaoriole]

You're right, since last years' numbers are the absolute only way to judge whether Guerrero was a better fit for this team than Reimold. Not age, or cost, or their particular skills, or their ability to be on the team long-term.

Nope. I will take Vlad's track record as a hitter over his entire career over Reimold any day. People are in love with Reimold because he came from the O's farm system. He's almost 28 years old and is still in the minors. Yeah, I think I will take the future Hall of Famer coming off a 100 RBI season over a guy who hasn't proven much at the big league level.

[OsnRavensallday]

It is way too early to say Vladdy was a bad signing , give the guy more than a month. I have to agree that the guy is the biggest free swinger I have ever seen.

I'm a lil bit more worried about Reynolds to be honest.

[Birds08]

If Reimold or Pie were hitting, I'd say it was a mistake.

[DrungoHazewood]

From July 1, 2010 through Oct 3 2010 Vlad Slugged 419. He OPSed 730. And had a BABIP of 266 over 332 PA's.

In 16 PA's in the post season he had 1 hit, no extra base hits and struck out 5 times and walked once.

Thus far in 2011, Vlad has slugged 398. He has OPSed 663. His BABIP is 284. 83 PA's.

The Vlad we are seeing right now is exactly the Vlad that the Rangers saw from 346 PA's last year. Look at the slugging, 21 points off, the OPS is 70 points lower because of the 19 slugging and the complete in ability to take a walk.

The contact rates are down. The pitches in the zone are up. Vlad hit some kind of wall at the middle of the year last year, and he hasn't recovered. This is not a small sample size, this drought ranges way way back for him. And if we don't pay attention to about 400 PA's and say that Vlad might just not have it, we aren't being fair.

I agree it's a concern. I think we discussed this quite a bit when he was signed, and we all knew that there was a chance he'd put up a .750-ish OPS this year. It was always a risk. I think we differ in that I'm not completely convinced he's done yet.

My biggest issue with his signing was the middling case, the one where he puts up a .700 OPS for four months. He's always a theoretical three week hot streak from bringing his numbers up to something pretty decent, but he never gets there, they never cut bait, and he's not playing well enough to trade. I'll admit the chances of that are looking better.

[tuOsfan]

Nope. I will take Vlad's track record as a hitter over his entire career over Reimold any day. People are in love with Reimold because he came from the O's farm system. He's almost 28 years old and is still in the minors. Yeah, I think I will take the future Hall of Famer coming off a 100 RBI season over a guy who hasn't proven much at the big league level.

:thumbsup1:thank youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu