Signing Vlad was big mistake

[Frobby]

This thread was started when Vlad was in the middle of a very hot streak. He isn't any more. Lets look at his numbers for the year (54 games 1/3 of the year).

.714 OPS

5 HR

23 RBI

.289 AVG

.314 OBP

.403 SLG

61 hits

9 doubles

23% of hits extra base hits (37% for career)

5 walks, 2.2% walk rate (career is 8.3%)

By any assessment these numbers are extremely disappointing. He projects out to 15 HR and 69 RBI. Most predictions preseason had Vlad with 25-30 HR, over 100 RBI and OPS in the mid .800s. Those predictions are looking more and more unattainable. In order to finish up with an .800 OPS for the year Vlad will need to hit at about an .850 OPS for the last 2/3 of the season. Vlad is a singles hitter this year. Only 23% of his hits are for extra bases vs. career numbers of 37%. His power seems to have disappeared. The only thing that makes these numbers not seem so bad is that many of the Os are doing just as badly or nearly as badly and with the injuries there is no one take his place.

With these numbers Vlad will be impossible to trade unless the Os eat the rest of his contract and expect nothing in return.

When Lee comes back, having Vlad will greatly reduce lineup flexibility which is necessary because of the injury to the shoulders of Scott and Nick. Vlad will be in the way of Scott playing or finding out if Reimold/Pie are part of the future of this club.

Lets hope that Vlad turns it around, but up until now he has not produced.

This thread was not started while Vlad was on a hot streak; he had a .663 OPS when this was started on the morning of April 26. But Vlad improved from there, and those (like me) who were arguing that people were jumping to conclusions too quickly gained steam over the ensuing month, as Vlad hit .873 OPS over the ensuing 23 games. Now, Vlad has been in a cold spell the last 8 games that has dropped his OPS from .777 to .716. He could go either direction from here. I really can't say where I think he will end up.

I take issue with your statement that Vlad was expected to put up an OPS in the mid-.800s, on two fronts. First, I don't think most people expected that. In a poll I ran before he signed with the O's, only 12.6% voted that Vlad would have an OPS of .840 or higher. 55.2% said .800-.839, 26.4% said .760-.799, and 5.8% said below .760. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/106783-Project-Vlad-s-OPS-if-he-signs-with-the-O-s?highlight=vlad%27s So, I'd say the "median" view was that he's be in the low .800's. Secondly, I think we have to account for the fact that the league OPS is down 18 points from last year. Last year's .800 is this year's .782. Vlad's .716 right now is exactly league average.

So, long and short, yes, Vlad is below expectations right now. Not by as much as you suggest, and I don't think the hill he has to climb is quite as steep as you suggest, either. As to whether he will climb it, I don't know.

[Roll Tide]

How can signing Vlad be a big mistake???? He is producing fairly well and will be attractive to a contender at the deadline. Whats not to like about this scenario?

[TiredofLosing20]

How can signing Vlad be a big mistake???? He is producing fairly well and will be attractive to a contender at the deadline. Whats not to like about this scenario?

Furthermore, I believe 1 year contracts are rarely big mistakes.

[jiminnj]

How can signing Vlad be a big mistake???? He is producing fairly well and will be attractive to a contender at the deadline. Whats not to like about this scenario?

How can a DH batting 4th with a .714 OPS be said to be producing fairly well?

[Sparkwinder]

Unless we get something for Vlad in a trade or such, or we make the playoffs on his back, he was a bad signing. Even if we do either of those things, he was still a bad signing with the information we had at the time he was signed. You don't sign a 36 y/o DESIGNATED HITTER when you have a perfectly viable one in Luke Scott and two young guys (Reimold and Pie) who could have been battling for the LF slot. It was a DUMB move to appease the casual fan.

1/3rd through the season and he has a .716 OPS. From your DH #4 lineup spot, that's called quietly having a very poor season. If I hear Gary Thorne say "Vlad is quietly having a solid season" one more time, I'm going to be down 1 TV and probably be better for it. I'll know the Orioles are serious about WINNING when they stop making moves like this one that are far more about the IMAGE than anything else.

[Frobby]

How can a DH batting 4th with a .714 OPS be said to be producing fairly well?

He can't be. We won't get anything significant in a trade for Vlad if he is producing at that level in late July. That's about what Aubrey Huff was hitting when we traded him for a Class A relief pitcher.

[jiminnj]

This thread was not started while Vlad was on a hot streak; he had a .663 OPS when this was started on the morning of April 26. But Vlad improved from there, and those (like me) who were arguing that people were jumping to conclusions too quickly gained steam over the ensuing month, as Vlad hit .873 OPS over the ensuing 23 games. Now, Vlad has been in a cold spell the last 8 games that has dropped his OPS from .777 to .716. He could go either direction from here. I really can't say where I think he will end up.

I take issue with your statement that Vlad was expected to put up an OPS in the mid-.800s, on two fronts. First, I don't think most people expected that. In a poll I ran before he signed with the O's, only 12.6% voted that Vlad would have an OPS of .840 or higher. 55.2% said .800-.839, 26.4% said .760-.799, and 5.8% said below .760. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/106783-Project-Vlad-s-OPS-if-he-signs-with-the-O-s?highlight=vlad%27s So, I'd say the "median" view was that he's be in the low .800's. Secondly, I think we have to account for the fact that the league OPS is down 18 points from last year. Last year's .800 is this year's .782. Vlad's .716 right now is exactly league average.

So, long and short, yes, Vlad is below expectations right now. Not by as much as you suggest, and I don't think the hill he has to climb is quite as steep as you suggest, either. As to whether he will climb it, I don't know.

The numbers I posted were for the year. They can't be anything but disappointing. The league average includes catchers, middle infielders, bench players, etc. I think we should expect much more than league average from our DH hitting 4th in the line up.

Since July 1 of last year, a period that includes 618 plate appearances (post season included) Vlad's numbers are .269 Avg, .304 OBP, .397 SLG, and .701 OPS and a total of 16 HR. Yep, he was very good in April, May and June of last year, but there is a total of 618 plate appearances with poor production between that last period of sustained good production from Vlad and now. Viewing those numbers, I think that almost all of us underestimated the rate of Vlad's decline. My hopes for a turn around are not very high.

[DrungoHazewood]

The numbers I posted were for the year. They can't be anything but disappointing. The league average includes catchers, middle infielders, bench players, etc. I think we should expect much more than league average from our DH hitting 4th in the line up.

Since July 1 of last year, a period that includes 618 plate appearances (post season included) Vlad's numbers are .269 Avg, .304 OBP, .397 SLG, and .701 OPS and a total of 16 HR. Yep, he was very good in April, May and June of last year, but there is a total of 618 plate appearances with poor production between that last period of sustained good production from Vlad and now. Viewing those numbers, I think that almost all of us underestimated the rate of Vlad's decline. My hopes for a turn around are not very high.

While Vlad's numbers are somewhat disappointing, I think you came into this exercise with the expectation that he'd been very disappointing and you've done your best to convince yourself that's true. There are 11 DHs in the AL who count as "qualified" by Fangraphs. Vlad is 8th in overall production, right in the same neighborhood with Jack Cust, Johnny Damon, and Juan Rivera. After a pretty terrible April where he almost literally swung at everything he's been better since May 1st and has moved his OPS up to league average. If that continues he'll be a somewhat above-average hitter, which is all most of us expected.

And what of the alternatives? I think we can be fairly confident Vlad is doing as well or better. Scott DHing, with a Pie/Reimold platoon was the most obvious replacement. Pie is putting up a .588 OPS, and while Reimold is obviously having a good 10 games, he OPSed .738 over his last 600 AAA PAs.

Obviously Vlad is not driving the O's toward the pennant with a 100 OPS+, nor will he fetch much in trade. But if he can get up to a 110 or a 115, as most projected and is still certainly within reach, he'll do a bit better on either count.

[wildcard]

When the O's or any team faces the best two pitching staffs in the league in the pitching staffs home park, the O's or any team's hitters are probably going to have lower OPS. That is what just happened to the O's facing Oakland and Seattle.

Let's see what happens next to Vlad and the rest of the team.