Signing Vlad was big mistake

[Frobby]

His OBP is still .287, he's on pace for 100 SO's (which would surpass his career high of 95...set in 1998 as a 23 year old during his first full year in the majors) (also, he's averaged 63.5 SO's since moving to the AL), and 17 of his 22 hits this season have been singles.

Whatever his track record, he looks like a shadow of his former self. He's currently projected to finish as follows...

.287 BA, 23 HR, 69 RBI, .287 OBP, .414 SLG, .701 OPS.

While it might be fair to argue that he stands a good chance of finishing with numbers better than those, it's also fair to observe that he doesn't look anything like the hitter he once was. He's swinging even more wildly, and more frequently, than he has in past years. But regardless...he's here for one year. If Reimold is supposed to be any part of the Orioles' future, then, IMO, if Reimold could come close to Vlad's current projections (and I think he could), Reimold should be the player getting those AB's.

Vlad absolutely is a HOFer...surefire. But that doesn't have anything to do with whether he's juuuust about finished as a player right now.

You just don't make that judgment after 87 PA. At this time of year, one hot week radically changes a player's numbers. Last year, Luke Scott's OPS went from .607 to .923 in the space of 11 games in mid-May, and he was looking totally lost before he got hot.

This is about the 10th time I have said this in the last week -- I really feel it takes 40-50 games before you can begin to make any judgments.

[jiminnj]

As one who really did not like the Vlad signing before and when it happened, it is still to early to make a judgement based upon actual productions and results. I am very concerned about Vlad but it is too early to be sure. Many of Vlad's at bats are almost absurd, but then he laces a single the next time up. His swing at anything approach is sometimes very sad and would be comical if he wasn't an Oriole. He could get hot yet, but I have my doubts that he is capable anymore of a long-term sustained period of productivity.

But Reimold is not tearing it up either and Pie looks to be a decent 4th outfielder, but I have my doubts that he will be more than that. I still wish we hadn't signed Vlad and were finding out if Pie or Reimold is the answer for the future, so far they probably would have easily done as much or more than Vlad, but it is still to early to really know if Vlad is a bust for us this year.

The big question is how long do you stick with Vlad if he continues like he is going now? That is a tough one to answer, it would be a lot easier to answer if Reimold would begin to tear the cover off the ball for awhile.

[flashjordnk]

Here's my deal with Vlad at the end of the day. Right now he's just about replacement level in fact a bit below. But my feelings are that he brings very little extra in terms of tangibles to this team, and this may be the reason I'm first to jump on his case. He brings zero flexibility to this team. He can't fill in the OF, he can't fill in at 1b. He can't run the bases. He's not a film junky and from what I understand his preparation is equivalent to going up and hitting the ball.

I asked this before and I'll ask it again, If were going to get replacement level hitting for 4.5 months of the season and 1.5 months of the season get a 1.000 OPS hitter what's that really worth? If he's not adding anything to team flexibility or being a role model for younger players or playing above average defense, outstanding of the $8 million, is he really someone that we should need. Did you see him run last night? It was painful.

[Moose Milligan]

Interesting how a certain poster who was extremely vocal in favor of signing Vlad has yet to make an appearance in this thread.

Odds are that if this were about Pie/Reimold flailing in LF, he'd be here beating his drum.

I don't think the book has been written on Vlad, anyway. Let's see how he's doing in mid-June before writing him off as a wasted signing or not.

[Tony-OH]

Here's my deal with Vlad at the end of the day. Right now he's just about replacement level in fact a bit below. But my feelings are that he brings very little extra in terms of tangibles to this team, and this may be the reason I'm first to jump on his case. He brings zero flexibility to this team. He can't fill in the OF, he can't fill in at 1b. He can't run the bases. He's not a film junky and from what I understand his preparation is equivalent to going up and hitting the ball.

I asked this before and I'll ask it again, If were going to get replacement level hitting for 4.5 months of the season and 1.5 months of the season get a 1.000 OPS hitter what's that really worth? If he's not adding anything to team flexibility or being a role model for younger players or playing above average defense, outstanding of the $8 million, is he really someone that we should need. Did you see him run last night? It was painful.

I saw a guy who was not the fastest guy, but a guy who was hustling his butt off. He's not a giant clog on the basepaths so I'm not sure what your gripe is with his base running. As for his bat, I think when things heat up Vlad's bat will too and he'll be much better than a replacement level DH. As for not being a film junky, he's going into the hall of fame without doing it so why should he start now?

BTW, if Vlad isn't here, who's in the lineup everyday instead? You want Pie's bat in there instead of Vlad? Reimold has a .701 OPS and has struck in a third of his at bats in AAA. I bet by the end of May Vlad's OPS in around the .820 mark.

[Moose Milligan]

I saw a guy who was not the fastest guy, but a guy who was hustling his butt off. He's not a giant clog on the basepaths so I'm not sure what your gripe is with his base running. As for his bat, I think when things heat up Vlad's bat will too and he'll be much better than a replacement level DH. As for not being a film junky, he's going into the hall of fame without doing it so why should he start now?

BTW, if Vlad isn't here, who's in the lineup everyday instead? You want Pie's bat in there instead of Vlad? Reimold has a .701 OPS and has struck in a third of his at bats in AAA. I bet by the end of May Vlad's OPS in around the .820 mark.

Vlad does hustle. He's just slow, has had various injuries over the years and one leg is longer than the other (it's true, look it up). When he's on the bases, it sure ain't pretty.

There are a lot of things we can question here...but I don't think effort should be one of them.

[Frobby]

Vlad does hustle. He's just slow, has had various injuries over the years and one leg is longer than the other (it's true, look it up). When he's on the bases, it sure ain't pretty.

There are a lot of things we can question here...but I don't think effort should be one of them.

He is not fast, and he's pretty ungainly, but from what I have seen, Vlad is a smart baserunner. And by the way, all three of his hits last night were smoked.

[flashjordnk]

I saw a guy who was not the fastest guy, but a guy who was hustling his butt off. He's not a giant clog on the basepaths so I'm not sure what your gripe is with his base running. As for his bat, I think when things heat up Vlad's bat will too and he'll be much better than a replacement level DH. As for not being a film junky, he's going into the hall of fame without doing it so why should he start now?

BTW, if Vlad isn't here, who's in the lineup everyday instead? You want Pie's bat in there instead of Vlad? Reimold has a .701 OPS and has struck in a third of his at bats in AAA. I bet by the end of May Vlad's OPS in around the .820 mark.

My biggest complaint which you ignore is that all the little things are adding up on this guy. The home/road splits. His aging knees. His inflexibility in terms of roster space. His incredibly slow speed. The fact that he's seeing a league low 3.02 pitches per plate appearance. Swinging more, with reduced contact rates. I can take all that with a 900+ OPS.

Would I like to see Pie/Reimold/Fox/whomever get some of those at bats. Sure why not? Scott could play there and we could have someone else in left. This biggest hurdle I have in what I don't like about Vlad is that all of those things are not numbers base. They are all the things I list above.

Frankly I could care less that he as a HOFer. The guy is 36. How many quality 36 year olds play above average baseball? If the question is, would I rather give the at bats to Pie, play him in LF take the couple runs he prevents out there and move Scott to DH. The answer is yes. I want to know what we have in Pie. If that means a few games this year, then so be it. Vlad of 2+ years ago was a guy who could carry a team. He's no longer that guy. He's probably a slightly above average guy, who will use his hot streaks to keep his numbers up. But will give you at least two months during the season where his OPS is below 750. BTW...I'll take your bet that Vlad's OPS by the end of May is 820. Unless he starts to walk, and last night's 8 pitch 4 at bat attempt is no indication he plans on trying, he'll won't be able to pull it off. If he does start to walk, I'll get off his bat. It means he's adjusting, realizing he can't hit everything under the sun and he'll help the team by getting into opposing teams bullpens earlier in games. If he starts to slug I'll be happy, but I see very few indicators that he's going to do that.

And to be 100% clear, zero of my objections to Vlad are based in effort. You answered my comment about how Vlad running looks painful with hustle. I didn't say he didn't. But it was neither quick and it was not pretty. And if a good throw came in, since he sort of almost altogether missed the bag sliding, he would have been out. Hustle or not.

[weams]

Interesting how a certain poster who was extremely vocal in favor of signing Vlad has yet to make an appearance in this thread.

Odds are that if this were about Pie/Reimold flailing in LF, he'd be here beating his drum.

I don't think the book has been written on Vlad, anyway. Let's see how he's doing in mid-June before writing him off as a wasted signing or not.

Was that poster Me? Cause I am THRILLED to have Vlad.

[SammyBirdland]

Every time I say something bad about Vlad, he hits a homer. So let me just say that Vlad is slow and he has a big butt.

Hey it worked! Vlad went 3 for 4 yesterday.

Let's roll the dice again. Um....Vlad's pants look really stupid when he tucks them into his shoes like that.

[Moose Milligan]

Was that poster Me? Cause I am THRILLED to have Vlad.

Certainly not you, weamsy

[Pedro Cerrano]

If we had passed on Vlad because he was too expensive and Pie/Reimold were struggling in an every day role, we'd have a ton of threads about how cheap the Orioles are by not ponying up for a legitimate bat like Vlad.

The team just can't win sometimes.

[Moose Milligan]

If we had passed on Vlad because he was too expensive and Pie/Reimold were struggling in an every day role, we'd have a ton of threads about how cheap the Orioles are by not ponying up for a legitimate bat like Vlad.

The team just can't win sometimes.

And Vlad would be OPSing .950 somewhere else, too

[SerenityNow]

If he starts to slug I'll be happy, but I see very few indicators that he's going to do that.

I'm not sure I understand this line of thinking. He absolutely roped 3 balls last night and is 4 for his last 8. He has already proven he still has some power left in his bat with 3 home runs this year.

Also Vlad had 35 walks last year and 19 the year before that. If you only walk 19 times in an entire season, it's not out of the realm that he could go a 21 game stretch without a walk.

[MrOrange82]

Honestly, I think the people who're "pro" Vlad are missing the "anti" point(s) in a big way.

The point definitely does not turn on whether Vlad, over the course of the season, will (probably) prove to be better than what Reimold, Pie, or a platoon of Reimold/Pie would've produced given Vlad's AB's. The point is that Vlad, as a one-year stopgap who doesn't fit into the team's plans long-term, serves very little purpose if he's not going to play like the true, MOO bat he's been over the course of his career. All he's doing is blocking other players, players who might factor into the team's long-term plans, from getting ML AB's.

I'm not going to post all the numbers right here because...well, I'm blowing off studying just to write this, and I can't afford to spend that much time...but look at the splits, look at the contact rates, etc. Starting out this poorly seems to be uncharted territory for Vlad (he may've had a couple of seasons where he started out badly, I'm not sure...but his career March/April numbers are stellar). And does anyone else realize that the guy's yet to draw a walk this year?

Again...it doesn't impugn Vlad's career numbers to say that he's already burned through 13% of his AB's for the entire season, and the results have been "meh," particularly by his standards (he's had 87 AB's...which projects out to 671 AB's over the course of the season...of course, that's being generous, since Vlad has only accumulated more than 600 AB's in 5 of the previous 13 full seasons he spent in the majors, the last time being in 2006).