What kind of contract do you think Markakis would have gotten this offseason if he were a free agent

[SrMeowMeow]

You are saying that since it can't be measured, it is meaningless...yet you posted this:

Not very consistent.

Another reading comprehension fail by the master.

[Sports Guy]

I think the premise itself is wrong, that players get better when they go to better teams. Where's the evidence for that? Do former Pirates all improve once they leave Pittsburgh? Not to my knowledge. Anyway, if this effect really existed, there would be a way of demonstrating it statistically, but I've never heard of any study that shows this to be the case.

What does common sense tell you?

Do we really need a study for common sense?

[Sports Guy]

Another reading comprehension fail by the master.

Well, if there is anyone who can identify failure....

[DrungoHazewood]

Because as soon as you get into psychological questions, everything becomes a narrative. And usually, any story will do that fits the facts. Markakis gets traded to the Red Sox, succeeds: "Streaking Markakis revitalized by winning culture." Markakis gets traded to the Red Sox, fails: "Years of losing culture hard to shake for struggling Markakis." Adrian Gonzalez gets traded to the O's, succeeds: "With responsibility comes production: Gonzalez relishes leadership role for young club." Gonzalez gets traded to the O's, fails: "Losing culture taking its toll on Gonzalez."

There's no analysis. There's no attempt at analysis. These things are churned out by sportswriters who see two related things and are under a deadline. They're also churned out by fans who choose to see reason and narrative when there's really just chance and probability distributions.

What I'm saying is the mean of your probability distribution function has a higher probability of shifting left towards zero when you're developed and exist in the Orioles culture. The effect is probably in the noise for most folks, like catcher's effect on ERA, or clutch ability. But I certainly wouldn't discount it.

[SrMeowMeow]

What I'm saying is the mean of your probability distribution function has a higher probability of shifting left towards zero when you're developed and exist in the Orioles culture. The effect is probably in the noise for most folks, like catcher's effect on ERA, or clutch ability. But I certainly wouldn't discount it.

I see no reason to think this effect exists until there's some actual evidence, much like clutch ability, which I definitely do discount. Also, that's not really what I meant by probability distributions, but I have to go get my oil changed.

[crawjo]

What does common sense tell you?

Do we really need a study for common sense?

"Common sense" doesn't tell me anything. Maybe some players (Carl Pavano? Javier Vazquez?) wilt when they go to a city where there is much more intensity and scrutiny. Maybe other players feel rejuvenated by that. Maybe for most players it doesn't make any difference.

[Sports Guy]

"Common sense" doesn't tell me anything. Maybe some players (Carl Pavano? Javier Vazquez?) wilt when they go to a city where there is much more intensity and scrutiny. Maybe other players feel rejuvenated by that. Maybe for most players it doesn't make any difference.

Well, personally I think common sense should tell you these things:

1) Players perform better with better players around them.

2) Players perform better when they get better coaching and are in a winning environment when they have been used to a losing one.

3) Players perform better when they are happier.

4) Players perform better when they play in games that matter on a consistent basis as opposed to being done those types of games by June.

Now, the above is talking about guys like Nick...going from an awful organization to a stronger one.

I still think there are people on here who fail to realize just how awful things are there. It must suck going to work everyday knowing you will probably lose and that your organization is doing nothing about it.

[NewMarketSean]

Let's see, what deal would Willingham get if he were 28 and had the career he's had to that point?

[DrungoHazewood]

Let's see, what deal would Willingham get if he were 28 and had the career he's had to that point?

Willingham is a fine comp for Nick, except that pesky age. Nick was a major league regular when Willingham was in the Midwest League. Willingham wasn't a major league regular until he was Nick's current age.

Literally, the differences in expectations for two very similar players, one aged 27 and one aged 33, couldn't be much more stark. Markakis should be expected to have three or four times as many hits, doubles, homers, etc as Willingham over the rest of their careers.

[crawjo]

Well, personally I think common sense should tell you these things:

1) Players perform better with better players around them.

2) Players perform better when they get better coaching and are in a winning environment when they have been used to a losing one.

3) Players perform better when they are happier.

4) Players perform better when they play in games that matter on a consistent basis as opposed to being done those types of games by June.

Now, the above is talking about guys like Nick...going from an awful organization to a stronger one.

I still think there are people on here who fail to realize just how awful things are there. It must suck going to work everyday knowing you will probably lose and that your organization is doing nothing about it.

Again, if you are right then there would be statistical evidence for it. Major League Baseball has been around since 1871 and there have always been terrible teams and always been really good teams, and players have always moved from one to the other. If this effect that you believe is "common sense" actually existed, it would be fairly easy to document.

[Sports Guy]

Again, if you are right then there would be statistical evidence for it. Major League Baseball has been around since 1871 and there have always been terrible teams and always been really good teams, and players have always moved from one to the other. If this effect that you believe is "common sense" actually existed, it would be fairly easy to document.

Well, how many players have played on terrible teams for years and years, only to leave that team and go to a contender...oh and that player be in the prime years of his career?