We are all pissed and rightfully so...What can the Orioles do this offseason to change that?

[SrMeowMeow]

I imagine you could say that about just about any major FA contract that is signed year in and year out. Prince Fielder, C.J. Wilson, and even Albert Pujols. Rarely, have I ever seen you say that any FA is worth the dollars that are being talked about or that he eventually signs for. That's not necesaryily a knock on you. It's just that he reality of contracts usually exceeds the reality of projective statistics.

It's not the reality of "projective statistics" (?), it's the reality of actual production. I don't think anyone knowledgeable on here would be shocked by the statement that free agency is not a place to find surplus value.

[Lucky Jim]

Getting past that part of the discussion, what did you think about Camden Depot's attempt at translating Darvish's performance to MLB?

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2011/10/translating-yu-darvishs-performance-to.html

In that it completely fails to take into account the new baseball and the suppressed numbers, I don't think it's likely to be all that accurate (at least for 2011 - his best year.)

[Lucky Jim]

I think it's very rough. Basing the translations on only three Japanese pitchers is going to mean you have a huge uncertainty in the projection. I don't think they took into account that Darvish plays in a pitcher's park. I don't think they took into account that the NPB has been using a deadened baseball this year.

The final projection of 20 WAR is plausible, but I'm not sure it's conservative. Paying $120M for the guy means you're assuming he's going to be one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball for the next 5 years. He's going to be Cliff Lee, essentially.

But I think you have to discount that for the uncertainty in the projection, and the fact that about half of the best pitchers up to age 24 aren't particularly great over the next five years. Guys like Eck and Fernando and Dwight Gooden were among the best young pitchers of the post WWII era, and all of them were worth about 10 wins total over the years Darvish is going to be under contract. Sign Darvish to a 5/60 deal with a $60M posting fee and there's a 60-70% chance he doesn't live up to the deal.

Or this.

[DrungoHazewood]

But who cares if "all he does" is be a very good #2 starter and is worth 90 million of the 5 year committment.

What if he's Dwight Gooden, who was every bit the pitcher Darvish was in his early 20s? From 25-29 Gooden had an ERA+ of 100, basically just an innings-eater. Is that worth $120M? Or if he's Fernando Valenzuela, another fabulous young ace with a ton of innings on his arm? From 25-29 his ERA+ was 95. What if he's Bret Saberhagen? Or Larry Dierker? They were all as good as Darvish, give or take.

[Sports Guy]

What if he's Dwight Gooden, who was every bit the pitcher Darvish was in his early 20s? From 25-29 Gooden had an ERA+ of 100, basically just an innings-eater. Is that worth $120M? Or if he's Fernando Valenzuela, another fabulous young ace with a ton of innings on his arm? From 25-29 his ERA+ was 95. What if he's Bret Saberhagen? Or Larry Dierker? They were all as good as Darvish, give or take.

Well, that would suck...But what if he is Tim Hudson or someone like that...a very strong #2 but still not worth 20M a year.

End of the day, who cares...If he gives you 15M in production and you pay him 20, is that a big deal? Does it matter at all?

I would rather risk overpaying on a guy like Darvish, a young top arm, then an older guy like Wilson.

[SrMeowMeow]

Well, that would suck...But what if he is Tim Hudson or someone like that...a very strong #2 but still not worth 20M a year.

End of the day, who cares...If he gives you 15M in production and you pay him 20, is that a big deal? Does it matter at all?

I would rather risk overpaying on a guy like Darvish, a young top arm, then an older guy like Wilson.

Sure, it's just "one Kevin Gregg" per year...but everyone hated the Gregg signing, and 15M production for 20M salary would be the same net effect on our organization.

[TGO]

Well, that would suck...But what if he is Tim Hudson or someone like that...a very strong #2 but still not worth 20M a year.

End of the day, who cares...If he gives you 15M in production and you pay him 20, is that a big deal? Does it matter at all?

I would rather risk overpaying on a guy like Darvish, a young top arm, then an older guy like Wilson.

Why do you have to risk overpaying either? Did I miss something here?

[DrungoHazewood]

It's not the reality of "projective statistics" (?), it's the reality of actual production. I don't think anyone knowledgeable on here would be shocked by the statement that free agency is not a place to find surplus value.

Right, this. Free agency is set up to fail. It pays players some rough approximation of free market value, but with prices based on peak years, despite contracts that extend through non-peak years.

The reality is that the only teams that make out on free agency are those with massive revenues that don't care how MLB as a whole values wins, or very lucky teams who happen to acquire atypical players. The Orioles basically can't win if they're counting on free agency for any significant part of their core.

[Sports Guy]

Why do you have to risk overpaying either? Did I miss something here?

Well, you don't have to.

This all started because the question was asked of me if Darvish was still my #1 priority...For me, he is(at least of the guys who are FAs...we will see what becomes available via trade)...it just went from there.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, that would suck...But what if he is Tim Hudson or someone like that...a very strong #2 but still not worth 20M a year.

End of the day, who cares...If he gives you 15M in production and you pay him 20, is that a big deal? Does it matter at all?

I would rather risk overpaying on a guy like Darvish, a young top arm, then an older guy like Wilson.

I'd much rather have Darvish than Wilson on comparable contracts. Sure. Wilson is even less likely than Darvish to be worth a 5/120 deal. At least Darvish has five years as a good starter on his resume.

But that doesn't change the fact that the large majority of free agent pitchers don't come close to earning their salaries. And it's not like you have to reach very far to see a much worse outcome than $15M in production while paying $20M. Dwight Gooden or Bret Saberhagen or the others I mentioned... you'd have been paying them $20M for $5M or $10M in production. For a team like the O's that's just awful.

[wickedwitch]

Why do you have to risk overpaying either? Did I miss something here?

Because no free agent in their right mind would come to Baltimore without being overpaid.

[Sports Guy]

I'd much rather have Darvish than Wilson on comparable contracts. Sure. Wilson is even less likely than Darvish to be worth a 5/120 deal. At least Darvish has five years as a good starter on his resume.

But that doesn't change the fact that the large majority of free agent pitchers don't come close to earning their salaries. And it's not like you have to reach very far to see a much worse outcome than $15M in production while paying $20M. Dwight Gooden or Bret Saberhagen or the others I mentioned... you'd have been paying them $20M for $5M or $10M in production. For a team like the O's that's just awful.

Well of course not...that will never be the case.

[SrMeowMeow]

Right, this. Free agency is set up to fail. It pays players some rough approximation of free market value, but with prices based on peak years, despite contracts that extend through non-peak years.

The reality is that the only teams that make out on free agency are those with massive revenues that don't care how MLB as a whole values wins, or very lucky teams who happen to acquire atypical players. The Orioles basically can't win if they're counting on free agency for any significant part of their core.

It is possible to find value on the free agent market. But rarely for high-priced talent. There are also situations where "overpaying" for a marquee free agent is a good decision, but not when you're trying to build the necessary core of surplus value.

[SrMeowMeow]

Well of course not...that will never be the case.

So...let's not sign free agent pitchers, agreed?

[SrMeowMeow]

At this point, the Orioles can't win if they don't go into the FA market. There's a good chance they'll fail if they do go into the FA market but there's a chance they hit on someone like Darvish. Or they could sit back, trade everything of value and try to get as many good young players coming up at the same time. That isn't going to happen. The O's could have a decent starting nine. The pitching is a huge question mark. You could take a chance on someone like Darvish and fail. The Orioles have been risked almost 20M on Lee, Guerrero, and Gregg last year. The upside of those three was questionable, Two were aging and everyone knew the third was a mistake. Take a chance on a foreign star like Darvish who is at a prime age. I'll take the 30-40% chance that Darvish lives up to the contract. As SG said, even if he doesn't, I wouldn't expect him to be a complete bust.

Do you mean, can't win in 2012 without rolling the dice in FA? I agree. But if you mean can't win in general without FA, you are 100% wrong.