Would you sign Fielder to a 6/140 contract?

[MrOrange82]

I'm confused about what the comparison is trying to prove. Powell never hit more than 27 HRs in a season after age 28. Moreover, in his last six years (after age 28), he only played in more than 130 games in a season twice, and he never played more than 140. In fact, in four of those seasons, he played 114 games or fewer.

Basically, Powell's trajectory is precisely the sort of thing that should concern people when it comes to considering Fielder.

[jets4ever]

It's a huge start.

Yes it is.

Pun intended. Or not.

[Barnaby Graves]

I'm confused about what the comparison is trying to prove. Powell never hit more than 27 HRs in a season after age 28. Moreover, in his last six years (after age 28), he only played in more than 130 games in a season twice, and he never played more than 140. In fact, in four of those seasons, he played 114 games or fewer.

Basically, Powell's trajectory is precisely the sort of thing that should concern people when it comes to considering Fielder.

Powell sustained good-to-excellent offensive stats right up until 1975, his age 33 season. He had a 154 OPS+ in 134 games that year. Fielder's production and health has always been better than Mr. Powell's through their respective age 21 to 27 seasons.

In fact without specifics over Powell's injuries, we might be comparing apples and oranges. Big power hitters aren't made alike.

[MrOrange82]

Powell sustained good-to-excellent offensive stats right up until 1975, his age 33 season. He had a 154 OPS+ in 134 games that year. Fielder's production and health has always been better than Mr. Powell's through their respective age 21 to 27 seasons.

In fact without specifics over Powell's injuries, we might be comparing apples and oranges. Big power hitters aren't made alike.

If you trust fangraphs, Powell went from 6.3 WAR in 1970, to 4.4, 3.1, 2.5, 2.0, 4.2 (the 1975 season you mentioned), 0.0, and 0.1.

Prior to the above, he recorded precisely one season of less than 3.1 WAR, two seasons of 6.9 or better, and four seasons of 3.9 or better.

The question isn't necessarily whether Fielder will fall off a cliff within the next year or two...it's how much will he resemble the 6.0 WAR player the O's (or any time that signs him this winter) would be paying for. And the odds are stacked drastically against Fielder in that regard.

[Barnaby Graves]

If you trust fangraphs, Powell went from 6.3 WAR in 1970, to 4.4, 3.1, 2.5, 2.0, 4.2 (the 1975 season you mentioned), 0.0, and 0.1.

Prior to the above, he recorded precisely one season of less than 3.1 WAR, two seasons of 6.9 or better, and four seasons of 3.9 or better.

The question isn't necessarily whether Fielder will fall off a cliff within the next year or two...it's how much will he resemble the 6.0 WAR player the O's (or any time that signs him this winter) would be paying for. And the odds are stacked drastically against Fielder in that regard.

Oh yeah, I mean, Fielder can't even resemble a 6.0 WAR player on a year-to-year basis... and speaking of Fangraphs, I'm using BBRef for this, but Fielder has hit 6.0 once, in 2009 (6.1 WAR/6.4 oWAR/-0.3 dWAR).

[MrOrange82]

Oh yeah, I mean, Fielder can't even resemble a 6.0 WAR player on a year-to-year basis... and speaking of Fangraphs, I'm using BBRef for this, but Fielder has hit 6.0 once, in 2009 (6.1 WAR/6.4 oWAR/-0.3 dWAR).

For some reason I had it in my head that he got to 6.0 in 2011, but fangraphs says the same (he reached 5.5 this past year). The argument holds, though. That's the sort of production he'll be paid for...but it's doubtful he'll repeat it all that often going forward.

[El Gordo]

I'm confused about what the comparison is trying to prove. Powell never hit more than 27 HRs in a season after age 28. Moreover, in his last six years (after age 28), he only played in more than 130 games in a season twice, and he never played more than 140. In fact, in four of those seasons, he played 114 games or fewer.

Basically, Powell's trajectory is precisely the sort of thing that should concern people when it comes to considering Fielder.

When you look at the two, Prince is clearly the stronger of the two, particularly his lower half which is the chief source of power. Both have substantial guts, but I wouldn't say Prince's belly is disproportionaly larger than Boog's, in spite of the fact that he is much shorter and carrying more wieght. He looks to me to be better conditioned and much stronger.

[MrOrange82]

When you look at the two, Prince is clearly the stronger of the two, particularly his lower half which is the chief source of power. Both have substantial guts, but I wouldn't say Prince's belly is disproportionaly larger than Boog's, in spite of the fact that he is much shorter and carrying more wieght. He looks to me to be better conditioned and much stronger.

I truly don't understand how you can say that seriously.

Here's Prince again:

And here's Boog, at age 35 (his last year), standing at a similar angle:

Not disproportionately larger? That's just nuts.

[El Gordo]

I truly don't understand how you can say that seriously.

Here's Prince again:

And here's Boog, at age 35 (his last year), standing at a similar angle:

Not disproportionately larger? That's just nuts.

This is why I use the word proportion. Fielder is clearly stronger in both the upper and lower half of his body. His gut is bigger, but Boog's is pretty good, and Boog is not as well conditioned as Fielder, though he is much taller.

[JTrea81]

I know you are right this time. Prince would give us a true feared bat. No one is

feared in the Orioles lineup. No one. Hardy may be the closest thing to a feared

bat. He was also once Prince's teammate. Ask the Brewers where they would have been this year without Prince. Sure, the Orioles need a good arm or two.

They also have an 80 million dollar budget...they can and should increase it by 30-40 million.

They have the money. They have the need. They need to change the culture and

excite the fan base.

It will never happen.

You know it Roy, the Orioles fans deserve a splash like Fielder, a sign that they are committed to win.

I just hope given the lack of competition for his services out there, the Orioles don't pass again, because after Fielder and Votto, there are no premium 1B bats in FA for several years.

Pujols, Votto, Fielder, Teixeira, Cabrera, Gonzalez

Those are your premium 1B bats for the next several years and 4 out of the 6 were on playoff teams in 2011.

The next crop (Hosmer, Freeman) won't be eligible for FA until after 2016.

The lack of urgency to fix first base for 13 straight years is flat out disgraceful and it needs to be addressed, and there is a perfect opportunity to do so.

[ccbird]

I know you are right this time. Prince would give us a true feared bat. No one is

feared in the Orioles lineup. No one. Hardy may be the closest thing to a feared

bat. He was also once Prince's teammate. Ask the Brewers where they would have been this year without Prince. Sure, the Orioles need a good arm or two.

They also have an 80 million dollar budget...they can and should increase it by 30-40 million.

They have the money. They have the need. They need to change the culture and

excite the fan base.

It will never happen.

There is no way this franchise can push the payroll to 120 mil and even if they could this is certainly not the time to do it.

[BrunoCherrytown]

There is no way this franchise can push the payroll to 120 mil and even if they could this is certainly not the time to do it.

Why can't they? Controlling a combined media market that is much bigger than Boston and only slightly smaller than Chicago, which has nothing to do with attendance, doesn't allow them to get to $120 million?

I'd like to hear the economic reason why we can't push $120 million. I know the Angelos reason. But there is absolutely no economic reason. Bmore on its own would be lucky to push $85 million. BMore + DC (and Harrisburg - Charlotte's) tv reach with forced subscription dues equals $120 million is a cakewalk budget to hit with a serious owner.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why can't they? Controlling a combined media market that is much bigger than Boston and only slightly smaller than Chicago, which has nothing to do with attendance, doesn't allow them to get to $120 million?

I'd like to hear the economic reason why we can't push $120 million. I know the Angelos reason. But there is absolutely no economic reason. Bmore on its own would be lucky to push $85 million. BMore + DC (and Harrisburg - Charlotte's) tv reach with forced subscription dues equals $120 million is a cakewalk budget to hit with a serious owner.

It would be astonishing if a team that hasn't had a winning record in 14 years had anything like the media revenues of a the Red Sox, who've been mostly good and sometimes great for generations and have a die hard contingent of fans stretching from the NY border into Canada, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and beyond. Yes, MASN has penetration into some parts of North Carolina and Pennsylvania, some of Virginia, but cable companies often fight to not have to carry it, and the advertising has to be sold at a tiny fraction of the rates NESN or YES charge. There have to be Tuesday night games against the Twins or Royals where the number of people watching MASN outside of the Baltimore metro area can be measured in the hundreds.

[MrOrange82]

It would be astonishing if a team that hasn't had a winning record in 14 years had anything like the media revenues of a the Red Sox, who've been mostly good and sometimes great for generations and have a die hard contingent of fans stretching from the NY border into Canada, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and beyond. Yes, MASN has penetration into some parts of North Carolina and Pennsylvania, some of Virginia, but cable companies often fight to not have to carry it, and the advertising has to be sold at a tiny fraction of the rates NESN or YES charge. There have to be Tuesday night games against the Twins or Royals where the number of people watching MASN outside of the Baltimore metro area can be measured in the hundreds.

Tacking onto that...if you've ever noticed that the O's seem to play the same commercials over and over and over, every single break, including some of their own spots advertising tickets, etc., well...that's a product of what Drungo is describing. It's just not about suspected media reach, it's about demand and what you're able to charge for what you're providing. The O's stink...you don't usually earn ridiculous amounts of money when you stink.

[JTrea81]

Tacking onto that...if you've ever noticed that the O's seem to play the same commercials over and over and over, every single break, including some of their own spots advertising tickets, etc., well...that's a product of what Drungo is describing. It's just not about suspected media reach, it's about demand and what you're able to charge for what you're providing. The O's stink...you don't usually earn ridiculous amounts of money when you stink.

You've got to spend money to make money. NESN was just like MASN before the Sox took off...