Morosi: Orioles and Braves have discussed trade for Jurrjens and Prado

[RVAbird]

Heyman says Jones have been discussed:

http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/146993127125811201

What? No he didn't. Twitter reading comprehension, people!

[crawjo]

Why is it that when the Orioles discuss doing something - adding major insurance and flexibility with Prado and getting a young starter in Jurrjens - everyone downgrades it and throws caution to the wind?

Yet when they don't do anything at the meetings, they're washed up?

Nobody can have it both ways - the Orioles are in a Catch-22. Damned if they don't do anything (at the meetings) and damned if they attempt to trade for talent (talks with the Braves).

It all depends on what we would give up. Would Jurjjens be better than most, perhaps all, of our starters? Yes, probably. Is Prado a useful player to have? Certainly. In the abstract I am not at all opposed to the acquisition of either player. This kind of thing makes me nervous because I think Jurjjens ERA is misleading, and I don't want the Orioles to give up major pieces for him. The Braves are clearly looking to sell high here, and the Orioles are not in a position to "buy high" on a pitcher like Jurjjens.

[VeveJones007]

What? No he didn't. Twitter reading comprehension, people!

It depends on how you interpret "no way, not even close". Does it mean "I have no idea where that rumor got started, but we haven't had those discussions" or does it mean "we're had preliminary talks, but nothing is close." I took it to mean the latter, but I could see how one could take it the other way.

It depends on how you read the first part of the tweet, as well. Did Heyman present it as a possible done deal to the O's exec?

[Cakes2Kakes]

Perhaps Mark Reynolds as as well as the Braves lack power...

Not true! The Braves were 3rd in the NL and 8th in MLB in HRs last season!

[RVAbird]

It depends on how you interpret "no way, not even close". Does it mean "I have no idea where that rumor got started, but we haven't had those discussions" or does it mean "we're had preliminary talks, but nothing is close." I took it to mean the latter, but I could see how one could take it the other way.

It depends on how you read the first part of the tweet, as well. Did Heyman present it as a possible done deal to the O's exec?

My disagreement with your interpretation aside, if it "depends on how you interpret it," than you're summarizing a 140 character line with an inference, which is disingenuous. I think the only thing you can really take out of that quote is that Jones for Jurrjens is an internet rumor at this point, and nothing more. I wouldn't caption the tweet with a line that suggests the rumor is somehow more plausible after reading Heyman's tweet.

[ChaosLex]

Not true! The Braves were 3rd in the NL and 8th in MLB in HRs last season!

Trea might have to start putting IMO after everything he writes.

[bandy75]

If we're trading for Jurrjens and Prado I would think the return would be Hardy +. Not sure who the additional piece could be, maybe Reimold, or a decent reliever (JJ, Simon, Hunter) I could see them picking up a solid right-handed setup man.

We would then have an infield of:

1b- Reynolds

2b- Roberts

ss- Andino

3b- Prado/ Davis

and the rotation:

Jurrjens

Guthrie

Britton

Wada

Arrieta

[Cakes2Kakes]

Danger, danger. I think I might rather have Trevor Cahill than Jurjjens. He's just the type of pitcher that an unwitting team could be sucked into overpaying for, based off his ERA last year.

I suggest you actually watch the man pitch before making such statements. If you believe for one second that all Jurjjens has to show for his years in the majors is an awesome start to last season you aren't seeing the bigger picture. If I remember correctly you're the same one who was using his low strikeout rate as an indication he had been "lucky" a while back. Much like Greg Maddux was able to do, Jurjjens has been dominant in many games where he has only struck out a few batters!

As for JJ's injury "history" He was healthy the first two full seasons he pitched and then had the knee injury which ended his 2010 season and may have resurfaced at the end of 2011. While I would surely be cautious and learn all I could about the knee, that has been his only real injury issue and it is possible he just pushed it to hard the first half of last year and it will be fine with more rest.

[JayThomas]

Also, the fear of trading with Atlanta for pitching is a bit overstated. They are in a tough division and a tougher situation with their payroll. They are not quite good enough to win theNL East, but they are pretty close. Pitching happens to be the one thing they have to offer, so getting alarmed about JJ is a bit much. Also, as I said before the NL East isn't a cake walk.

I think the NL East needs to be put in context. The NL East is tough because of their pitching rotations, not because of their feared batting lineups. It isn't a cakewalk but relatively speaking, the pitchers over there have a much easier time than the pitchers in the AL East. Trading for an NL East pitcher moving to the AL East is something to fade.

[VeveJones007]

My disagreement with your interpretation aside, if it "depends on how you interpret it," than you're summarizing a 140 character line with an inference, which is disingenuous. I think the only thing you can really take out of that quote is that Jones for Jurrjens is an internet rumor at this point, and nothing more. I wouldn't caption the tweet with a line that suggests the rumor is somehow more plausible after reading Heyman's tweet.

That's fair. I removed the line from my post so people can read it and interpret it however they want. I've communicated my interpretation of the tweet, which was more of what I was really going for anyway.

[Cakes2Kakes]

What's the consensus of those who watch the braves as to why Prado had such a down year last year. Was he playing through injury, or did the league adjust to him?

I think injuries were a big part of it. A staph infection isn't something you rebound from easily. I think he was also much more free swinging last season trying to improve his power numbers. After the Uggla trade he was left with LF and 3rd base as possible positions

and I think he figured he would need to hit more HRs to keep a job at either position. I think batting second after they acquired Bourn also hurt his numbers. I'm sure there is a lot to learn when hitting behind a 50+ stolen base guy!

In the end he is a sure handed fielder who can hit for average and provide 15+ HR power, best suited for 2nd base or super utility!

[Capn Vivi]

Jurrjens' numbers are lucky, that's a fundamental fact.

in 2011 and 2009, his two best years statistically, he posted a 81% and 79.4% LOB% respectively. His career average is 75%. In 2010, when his ERA was far above his career average at 4.64, he had a LOB% of 69.3%.

In 2008, when his FIP (3.59) and ERA (3.68) were at their closest, his LOB% was only 71%.

He has a 3.88 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP in the National League. Why would we trade substantial pieces for him? At least if we acquire Floyd, it's someone who doesn't have the injury history and may actually sign a long term extension (Jurrjens is a Boras client).

I'm not so worried about his K-rate as Pitch Fx loves his stuff. It just doesn't make sense for us to "buy high" on him, even if Prado were there to sweeten the deal.

This situation does present an interesting predicament. If we were attempting to trade for a "legit #2" and had to give up one of Adam Jones or Matusz, would you do it? Would it make sense for the team going forward?

Dave Studdeman wrote a piece in the Hardball Times about LOB%. Here's what he had to say:

What's more, LOB% isn't just a matter of luck. I ran a quick regression analysis of 2004 and 2005 LOB% (for all pitchers who faced at least 300 batters in both years) and found a correlation of .28. In other words, the ability to keep baserunners from scoring is a repeatable skill, to a degree.

Unfortunately, Jurrjen's inconsistency in this regard is likely what will keep him from maintaining this level of performance in the AL East (were we to acquire him).

I'd say Guthrie could very easily put up better numbers than him next year. I'm not saying that out of confidence in Guthrie but the inability to accurately forecast Jurrjens performance.

[Scrat1]

This situation does present an interesting predicament. If we were attempting to trade for a "legit #2" and had to give up one of Adam Jones or Matusz, would you do it? Would it make sense for the team going forward?

I'd love for us to trade Jones for a future #2, like Vizcaino or Delgado. Almost all of the rumored trades have sounded to me like lateral moves at best.

[Lucky Jim]

Jurrjens' numbers are lucky, that's a fundamental fact.

in 2011 and 2009, his two best years statistically, he posted a 81% and 79.4% LOB% respectively. His career average is 75%. In 2010, when his ERA was far above his career average at 4.64, he had a LOB% of 69.3%.

In 2008, when his FIP (3.59) and ERA (3.68) were at their closest, his LOB% was only 71%.

He has a 3.88 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP in the National League. Why would we trade substantial pieces for him? At least if we acquire Floyd, it's someone who doesn't have the injury history and may actually sign a long term extension (Jurrjens is a Boras client).

I'm not so worried about his K-rate as Pitch Fx loves his stuff. It just doesn't make sense for us to "buy high" on him, even if Prado were there to sweeten the deal.

This situation does present an interesting predicament. If we were attempting to trade for a "legit #2" and had to give up one of Adam Jones or Matusz, would you do it? Would it make sense for the team going forward?

K-rate is just an input. I actually noted (internally) the LOB% but didn't have time to do anything with it. Good stuff.

[Cakes2Kakes]

I think the NL East needs to be put in context. The NL East is tough because of their pitching rotations, not because of their feared batting lineups. It isn't a cakewalk but relatively speaking, the pitchers over there have a much easier time than the pitchers in the AL East. Trading for an NL East pitcher moving to the AL East is something to fade.

Other then getting to face the pitcher once every trip through the lineup I'm not sure the difference is as exaggerated as you seem to think. Phillie, Florida, and the Nats have some pretty potent bats!