Morosi: Orioles and Braves have discussed trade for Jurrjens and Prado

[Capn Vivi]

Other then getting to face the pitcher once every trip through the lineup I'm not sure the difference is as exaggerated as you seem to think. Phillie, Florida, and the Nats have some pretty potent bats!

The league average ERA in the NL in 2011 was 3.81. In the AL it was 4.08. They are much different run environments (Though it is a difference of only 41 earned runs between them).

[SrMeowMeow]

Jurrjens' FIP is still 3.88. Hell, his xFIP is only 4.22. As long as we're paying an appropriate amount for that production, I'm happy to acquire him.

[Going Underground]

Won't all the pitchers we would trade for have some flaws. I don't think we are trading for Cy Young.

[clapdiddy]

Won't all the pitchers we would trade for have some flaws. I don't think we are trading for Cy Young.

Are you hearing anything about ATL and us?

[ChaosLex]

Are you hearing anything about ATL and us?

Roy Firestone brought up Matusz in another thread. Maybe he heard something?

[Cakes2Kakes]

Jurrjens' numbers are lucky, that's a fundamental fact.

in 2011 and 2009, his two best years statistically, he posted a 81% and 79.4% LOB% respectively. His career average is 75%. In 2010, when his ERA was far above his career average at 4.64, he had a LOB% of 69.3%.

In 2008, when his FIP (3.59) and ERA (3.68) were at their closest, his LOB% was only 71%.

He has a 3.88 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP in the National League. Why would we trade substantial pieces for him? At least if we acquire Floyd, it's someone who doesn't have the injury history and may actually sign a long term extension (Jurrjens is a Boras client).

I'm not so worried about his K-rate as Pitch Fx loves his stuff. It just doesn't make sense for us to "buy high" on him, even if Prado were there to sweeten the deal.

This situation does present an interesting predicament. If we were attempting to trade for a "legit #2" and had to give up one of Adam Jones or Matusz, would you do it? Would it make sense for the team going forward?

Dave Studdeman wrote a piece in the Hardball Times about LOB%. Here's what he had to say:

Unfortunately, Jurrjen's inconsistency in this regard is likely what will keep him from maintaining this level of performance in the AL East (were we to acquire him).

I'd say Guthrie could very easily put up better numbers than him next year. I'm not saying that out of confidence in Guthrie but the inability to accurately forecast Jurrjens performance.

As someone who has watched most of Jurjjens' starts, and someone who has watched enough baseball to know that such stats as you are using can be very inaccurate when applied to some pitchers, I'll agree to disagree.

I have watched many Braves games where JJ received no run support and lost 1-0 or 2-0 after a brilliant performance, so luck runs both ways, but to use a bunch of after the fact stats to lessen the accomplishments of the man after 4+ years in the majors seems silly to me. Spend the few dollars to buy the MLB online TV package, and go back and watch his starts from early last season. He was almost unhittable most of the time and that takes a lot more then plain luck. Trying to judge a masterful pitcher by numbers is like trying to judge a master painter by the number of brush strokes IMO. Believe me it hasn't been the Braves great defense or over powering offense that has made Jurjjens so successful!

[Cakes2Kakes]

The league average ERA in the NL in 2011 was 3.81. In the AL it was 4.08. They are much different run environments (Though it is a difference of only 41 earned runs between them).

So now use your STAT knowledge to adjust the pitchers at bats out of that!

[JayThomas]

Other then getting to face the pitcher once every trip through the lineup I'm not sure the difference is as exaggerated as you seem to think. Phillie, Florida, and the Nats have some pretty potent bats!

I don't think that any of those lineups hold a torch to the top 4 lineups in the AL East - well maybe they match up with TB, but definitely not NY, BOS, or TOR.

[McNulty]

Has anyone brought up his chronic knee issues yet? I remember Will Carroll mentioning it a few times during the year.

[crawjo]

I suggest you actually watch the man pitch before making such statements. If you believe for one second that all Jurjjens has to show for his years in the majors is an awesome start to last season you aren't seeing the bigger picture. If I remember correctly you're the same one who was using his low strikeout rate as an indication he had been "lucky" a while back. Much like Greg Maddux was able to do, Jurjjens has been dominant in many games where he has only struck out a few batters!

As for JJ's injury "history" He was healthy the first two full seasons he pitched and then had the knee injury which ended his 2010 season and may have resurfaced at the end of 2011. While I would surely be cautious and learn all I could about the knee, that has been his only real injury issue and it is possible he just pushed it to hard the first half of last year and it will be fine with more rest.

Wow...way to read into my post things I never even said. Well done. I love how, whenever anyone brings up a low K rate in regards to a particular pitcher, somebody immediately invokes Greg Maddux. Okay. Does Jair Jurrjens strike out more than three times as many batters as he walks? No, his rate is around 2 strikeouts per walk. Does Jurrjens walk less than one batter per nine innings? No, in fact, he walks between 2.5 and 3 batters per nine.

Again, I'm not saying Jurrjens has no value. I'm saying don't pay for him as if he's a pitcher who is going to routinely put up ERAs of around 3. I have said that I think Jurrjens would instantaneously become the best starting pitcher on our staff. All that's well and good. Just don't pay for him as if he is an ace. He is not.

[Oriolidae85]

^^^ They have seven guys under 26 four 4 spots. You'd think they'd want to move the guy that would bring the most back. Of that group, I believe he is by far the most expensive. They'll move the guy that can net them the largest return.

JJ would make the Orioles better, but I don't think I'd give up what they want for him. Do we know who they are targeting? I wouldn't really go out of my way to acquire Prado, and I wouldn't give up Jones or Matusz for him either. All in all, I don't think we match up that great with them.

This was directed in response to SG's post two up.

The Braves need a SS, so Andino likely has to be involved.

I've advocated a Jones to Atlanta deal, but it was always revolving around their young starters... guys like Minor, Delgado, and Vizcaino. Unlikely, although Jurrgens as part of a package certainly would pique my interest.

In another thread Re: Jurrjens, I recommended Andino+, but will take it another step. Andino, Jones, Tillman and Strop for Jurrjens, Vizcaino and Bourn. The O's get a speedy, defensive, leadoff hitting CF; a likely #2 SP w/injury concerns; and a high ceiling SP prospect. The Braves get a power hitting CF for two years (verses one for Bourn); their starting SS w/+ defense; SP depth with MOR potential; and a potential setup RP.

[clapdiddy]

The Braves need a SS, so Andino likely has to be involved.

In another thread Re: Jurrjens, I recommended Andino+, but will take it another step. Andino, Jones, Tillman and Strop for Jurrjens, Vizcaino and Bourn. The O's get a speedy, defensive, leadoff hitting CF; a likely #2 SP w/injury concerns; and a high ceiling SP prospect. The Braves get a power hitting CF for two years (verses one for Bourn); their starting SS w/+ defense; SP depth with MOR potential; and a potential setup RP.

I don't know why, but I would guess that Tillman might thrive in an organization like Atlanta's.

[SrMeowMeow]

The Braves need a SS, so Andino likely has to be involved.

In another thread Re: Jurrjens, I recommended Andino+, but will take it another step. Andino, Jones, Tillman and Strop for Jurrjens, Vizcaino and Bourn. The O's get a speedy, defensive, leadoff hitting CF; a likely #2 SP w/injury concerns; and a high ceiling SP prospect. The Braves get a power hitting CF for two years (verses one for Bourn); their starting SS w/+ defense; SP depth with MOR potential; and a potential setup RP.

Did you see what the Braves moved for Bourn? This will never happen.

[Oriolidae85]

Did you see what the Braves moved for Bourn? This will never happen.

Who would you rather have? Bourn for one year, or Jones for two?

[Cakes2Kakes]

I love how, whenever anyone brings up a low K rate in regards to a particular pitcher, somebody immediately invokes Greg Maddux.

So maybe I should have said Glavine? As a Braves fan I argued with guys like you over both pitchers in the 90's. Baseball, and especially pitching, cannot be accurately assessed with stats alone. That is all you have regurgitated on this issue, and your short sightedness was never more obvious then with your league ERA comparisons. You are simply guessing that the pitchers effectiveness will regress based on past stats. The same stats that you claim prove that the pitcher was more "lucky" than good in the past. So I read that as your contending that your stats somehow failed to predict accurately in the past but will eventually be correct going forward!

You stick to baseball "science" and I'll continue to watch the actual games and base my opinions on effectiveness and performance!