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Now it's REALLY over...Prince to Detroit

connja

By connja
in Orioles Talk

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glenn__davis Hangout Grand Counsel

glenn__davis

Posted
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I've seen some data that a World Series might benefit a team to the tune of $30M or so over a number of years, from increased attendance and advertising revenue and the like. That's the equivalent of buying you maybe 6 wins. Unless that's waaaaaay off it doesn't come close to justifying overpaying by double or more on a contract like that.

But contrary to popular belief, it's not always all about the Benjamins. Maybe the Tigers owner just wants to win a title. There's little doubt that over the next few years, they have a better chance with Fielder than without him. And maybe after that, he really doesn't give a rat's behind if he has to lose money to pay for a bad contract.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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But contrary to popular belief, it's not always all about the Benjamins. Maybe the Tigers owner just wants to win a title. There's little doubt that over the next few years, they have a better chance with Fielder than without him. And maybe after that, he really doesn't give a rat's behind if he has to lose money to pay for a bad contract.

Right.

As Herm Edwards would say...You play to win the games.

If the Orioles were on the cuisp of winning a title and a guy like Prince was there for us and we had to spend 200M to get him, so be it. You win your titles and worry about the 7th-9th year of the contract later.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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But contrary to popular belief, it's not always all about the Benjamins. Maybe the Tigers owner just wants to win a title. There's little doubt that over the next few years, they have a better chance with Fielder than without him. And maybe after that, he really doesn't give a rat's behind if he has to lose money to pay for a bad contract.

Especially when you're dead sometime in the next 5-10 years. Well, unless your name is Angelos...

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I know this is old news now, but I had to run the numbers. The Tigers are paying for about 48 wins with this contract, without factoring in inflation. If you assume the cost of a win goes up 5% a year, they're paying for about 40 wins.

So far in his career Prince has been worth about 20 wins. I have to say it's kind of crazy to think they have any chance of breaking even on this deal, with Prince needing to more than double his career production through what should be his decline phase.

There have been a little over 200 players who had rWAR totals between 15 and 25 from age 21-27. Prince has about 20. Of those, five had WAR totals over 48 from 28-36. 18 had WAR totals over 40 from 28-36. About 180 or 190 weren't worth 40+ wins. About 130 were worth 20 or fewer wins.

So, not even taking into account body type or position, just going on production from 21-27, you get this breakdown:

2% worth 48 or more wins over the ages of Prince's contract.

10% worth 40+ wins

30% worth 20+ wins

70% worth < 20 wins

35% worth < 10 wins

Median is about 14 wins.

So my guess is that he'll be worth a few wins less over the next nine years as he's been worth over the previous 7. My mid-range projection is that he's going to be worth maybe 16-18 wins over the next nine years, or about $100M with moderate inflation. Or, they've overpaid by about double.

I think this is probably a case of the Tigers' owner being old and just not caring what happens with the money. If only Angelos were similarly deranged.

I think the way the Tigers see things, they have a window of opportunity to win a World Series or two in the next five years that they don't want to miss, and if Fielder helps them to do that, they just don't care about the consequences in 2017-2020 right now.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I think the way the Tigers see things, they have a window of opportunity to win a World Series or two in the next five years that they don't want to miss, and if Fielder helps them to do that, they just don't care about the consequences in 2017-2020 right now.

They have an 82 year old owner, in poor health, that has had personal dealing with Scott Boras before. I suspect he wants to win now and his team was close enough to mortgage it's future.

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Chevytrckman3 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Chevytrckman3

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I was looking at Cecil Fielder's career stats, and noticed how similar their power numbers were through their first 6 full seasons.

Cecil- 219 HR 678 RBI

Prince- 230 HR 656 RBI

Cecil was out of baseball by 34, but from his age 28-34 seasons, he averaged 30 HR and 111 RBI's, though most of that was in his 28-31 seasons.

So, if their careers stay on the same similar path, the Tigers will regret the last 5 years of that contract.

Now, I only used power numbers. Prince hits for a much better AVG. than his dad ever did.

Just some numbers I found interesting.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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So are you saying the Orioles could spend more and it would NOT cripple the franchise for years to come? They could even make a few splashes in the FA market?

I would imagine the status quo guys will hammer away!

Exactly what I am saying...now, does it mean that an owner may end up with a little less profit when he ultimately divests himself of the team? Maybe...but the idea that any owner could not easily eat the complete cost of any single mega contract player

(and they would not obviously have to eat the complete cost because even if it is a very bad contract, it still will return SOME revenue...so you end up with some loss, but not total loss)...It does require an owner who views this less as a business and more of an avocation/passion and a long term investment....it would be interesting to know right now, this moment, if Peter Angelos were to sell the team, how much of a profit since he purchased the team he stands to make.

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Oriolidae85 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Oriolidae85

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They have an 82 year old owner, in poor health, that has had personal dealing with Scott Boras before. I suspect he wants to win now and his team was close enough to mortgage it's future.

Just reminded me of a good analysis about the economics of spending as a large-market team verses a small market team (found in this thread and posted by tntoriole: )

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Oriolidae85 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Oriolidae85

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Just reminded me of a good analysis about the economics of spending as a large-market team verses a small market team (found in this thread and posted by tntoriole: )

In the article:

In valuing players, it is no longer necessary to rely on rough approximations of individual players’ marginal products (often based on regressions that correlated team success with a few summary measures of hitting or pitching efficiency4), as many early studies of free agents’ salaries did. What is more, recent research on pay and performance in the industry makes clear that attaching value to individual players’ output is more complex than previously thought. In particular, the finding by Burger and Walters (2003) and Solow and Krautmann (2007) that players’ MRPs are affected by the size of the market in which they play—and not uniform across teams, as is commonly assumed—means that prior judgments about overbidding may be erroneous because they are based on comparisons of players’ salaries to misestimated MRPs.5

MRP's = Marginal Revenue Products

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murph Hangout Grand Counsel

murph

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I think the way the Tigers see things, they have a window of opportunity to win a World Series or two in the next five years that they don't want to miss, and if Fielder helps them to do that, they just don't care about the consequences in 2017-2020 right now.

Does anyone know the revenue's generated (even/including posthumously (10, 20, etc... years from merchandising sales)) from winning a world series. Is it enough to justify throwing away 20-30% of a team's payroll in future years. Maybe that is what the Tigers are partly banking on? Otherwise I don't understand that contract at all...aging owner and all...

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