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Now it's REALLY over...Prince to Detroit

connja

By connja
in Orioles Talk

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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Of course....my point is that it is not the money of any one mega contract that makes or breaks an organization...all owners and certainly angelos could absorb any contract without significant impact on the organization IF they choose to ...it is the collective sum of all the savvy and lucky choices made by gms in putting teams together that make the difference. I very much like DDs approach thus far because he knows what he wants to do in this rebuild.

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.500_OR_BETTER Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

.500_OR_BETTER

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$214 million for a DH, that's insane. When does Cabrera's contract run out? Because he'll want more than Fielder.

I would have like Fielder on a 6 year deal, but in 9 years, I'll be surprised if he puts up Pena numbers.

He will be facing better pitching. I'd have to assume Tigers will be forced to make a trade next year.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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That may be the stupidest contract in baseball history. And yes, Boras is an absolute genius. I was really thinking he would have a tough time getting $150 mm.

Well, nobody can really argue that Baltimore should have matched this deal. We won't have to have the usual debates about whether Angelos was too cheap for us to ante up, etc. That is simply insane.

Good luck to the Tigers, they will need it!

I'll go on record as saying that, as measured by fangraphs, Fielder will underperform his contract by more than Werth will. Which is saying a lot, because Werth's contract is awful.

I know this is old news now, but I had to run the numbers. The Tigers are paying for about 48 wins with this contract, without factoring in inflation. If you assume the cost of a win goes up 5% a year, they're paying for about 40 wins.

So far in his career Prince has been worth about 20 wins. I have to say it's kind of crazy to think they have any chance of breaking even on this deal, with Prince needing to more than double his career production through what should be his decline phase.

There have been a little over 200 players who had rWAR totals between 15 and 25 from age 21-27. Prince has about 20. Of those, five had WAR totals over 48 from 28-36. 18 had WAR totals over 40 from 28-36. About 180 or 190 weren't worth 40+ wins. About 130 were worth 20 or fewer wins.

So, not even taking into account body type or position, just going on production from 21-27, you get this breakdown:

2% worth 48 or more wins over the ages of Prince's contract.

10% worth 40+ wins

30% worth 20+ wins

70% worth < 20 wins

35% worth < 10 wins

Median is about 14 wins.

So my guess is that he'll be worth a few wins less over the next nine years as he's been worth over the previous 7. My mid-range projection is that he's going to be worth maybe 16-18 wins over the next nine years, or about $100M with moderate inflation. Or, they've overpaid by about double.

I think this is probably a case of the Tigers' owner being old and just not caring what happens with the money. If only Angelos were similarly deranged.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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I think this is probably a case of the Tigers' owner being old and just not caring what happens with the money. If only Angelos were similarly deranged.

Or, it's a case of a compulsive gambler.

I'm not doubting your analysis, but we know that not all wins are created the same. The Tigers were inches from going to the WS last year. A gambler might say that if the Prince can put them over the top next year (wins WS), that in itself is worth the equivalent of 20 WAR. Maybe more?

What if he's the piece that helps them win 2?

The gambler, a person who deals in high risk, CAN win big. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Tigers view this deal as a bargain when it's all said and done even if his WAR never approaches the values you lay out as being "worth it."

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EddieMurrayfan Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

EddieMurrayfan

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Of course....my point is that it is not the money of any one mega contract that makes or breaks an organization...all owners and certainly angelos could absorb any contract without significant impact on the organization IF they choose to ...it is the collective sum of all the savvy and lucky choices made by gms in putting teams together that make the difference. I very much like DDs approach thus far because he knows what he wants to do in this rebuild.

So are you saying the Orioles could spend more and it would NOT cripple the franchise for years to come? They could even make a few splashes in the FA market?

I would imagine the status quo guys will hammer away!

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Or, it's a case of a compulsive gambler.

I'm not doubting your analysis, but we know that not all wins are created the same. The Tigers were inches from going to the WS last year. A gambler might say that if the Prince can put them over the top next year (wins WS), that in itself is worth the equivalent of 20 WAR. Maybe more?

What if he's the piece that helps them win 2?

The gambler, a person who deals in high risk, CAN win big. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Tigers view this deal as a bargain when it's all said and done even if his WAR never approaches the values you lay out as being "worth it."

I've seen some data that a World Series might benefit a team to the tune of $30M or so over a number of years, from increased attendance and advertising revenue and the like. That's the equivalent of buying you maybe 6 wins. Unless that's waaaaaay off it doesn't come close to justifying overpaying by double or more on a contract like that.

I think they're really gambling here. They're hoping that Fielder is Harmon Killebrew or Willie McCovey, and not among the dozens of other Mo Vaughns and Greg Luzinskis and Boog Powells. Boog was actually a more valuable player than Prince from ages 21-27, and from 28-on he had one five-win season, one four-win season, one three-win season, one two-win season, four years where he was a below-average player, and his age 36 season he was out of baseball.

My guess is that Boog is Prince Fielder's most likely case. A couple years at an MVP-ish level, then a decline into being an average player, followed by about half his contract where he's giving you 1 win for $25M a year.

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MrOrange82 Hangout Grand Counsel

MrOrange82

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Lesson number two. If you don't hear about them and they end up getting the player, it was for a very punishing contract.

Seriously.

How many teams, I wonder, have in retrospect been truly happy about handing out those massive contracts? How many teams have walked away from signing Boras-instigated contracts without suffering subsequently?

And yet the mystery teams keep popping up.

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