Talent and Experience

[wildcard]

If a player sucks, the more experience he gets isn't gonna automatically make him better. I give you DCab, Gibbons, and most of the other Orioles developed players from the past 14 years. Brady is absolutely right...Talent is the key. The only guy on this team who would have started in 97 is Wieters.

But what we don't know is that with 3 years of experience whether other O's players will reach that level. Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Jones, Johnson, and others. Experience for a developing good players is important.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not to stray off topic, but we often debate whether Moose has the numbers to make the HOF. One would think a 75 WAR would get the job done, eh?

Once you accept that there are no real HOF standards a lot of things become more clear. There are modern players in the Hall with less than 30 WAR, and several eligible non-HOFers with over 70.

Mussina has nearly twice the career value of Jim Rice or Jack Morris. About three times Bill Mazeroski or Ray Schalk.

[Dipper9]

But he was 11 years old!

Actually, you wouldn't take Markakis over Hammonds? Or Reimold or Reynolds over Berroa? If the '97 team had Guthrie as their 5th starter instead of Krivda/Boskie/etc. they might have won 105 games. Or Cal... Cal starts because he's Cal, but in 1997 he wasn't nearly as good as Reynolds' career hitting mark, maybe not even close enough to make up for the glove.

Yeah, I'd take Kakes in RF and Reynolds at DH. Might even think about Jones in LF over Surhoff. And perhaps Hardy over Bordick.

GD, we ARE talented. Print the friggin playoff tickets man...we going to the Big Show!

[Frobby]

But what we don't know is that with 3 years of experience whether other O's players will reach that level. Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Jones, Johnson, and others. Experience for a developing good players is important.

I don't think Jones and Johnson belong in this discussion. Neither of them needs more experience.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah, I'd take Kakes in RF and Reynolds at DH. Might even think about Jones in LF over Surhoff. And perhaps Hardy over Bordick.

GD, we ARE talented. Print the friggin playoff tickets man...we going to the Big Show!

Oh yea, I forgot Bordick. He had a .601 OPS in the middle of the steroid era! At least comparing his 1997 to Hardy's 2011 Hardy wins hands down.

[wildcard]

Is a study really necessary for this one?

Cal - 90 WAR

Mussina - 75 WAR

Palmeiro - 66 WAR

Alomar - 64 WAR

I'd venture a guess that all the players on the 25-man Opening Day roster for 2012 combined won't accumulate 295 WAR in their careers, and I haven't even mentioned

Key 46 WAR

Baines 37 WAR

Surhoff 34 WAR

E. Davis 34 WAR

Brady 31 WAR

Erickson 22 WAR

Bordick 17 WAR

However Adam Jones' WAR on his 26th birthday was 8.2 and Brady's was .7. You have to give the young players time to develop before saying they will never be as good as..................

They need experience.

[wildcard]

I don't think Jones and Johnson belong in this discussion. Neither of them needs more experience.

Jones is not at his peak IMO and Johnson will make a big jump if he becomes a successful closer.

[atomic]

Why can't we just face the fact that most of the players on the team are not very good and likely to never be very good.

[Sports Guy]

Jones is not at his peak IMO and Johnson will make a big jump if he becomes a successful closer.

He may have 1 or 2 better seasons than he just had but he is likely at his "consistent peak" right now.

[wildcard]

He may have 1 or 2 better seasons than he just had but he is likely at his "consistent peak" right now.

Well that is an opinion. Jones has to learn to hit lefthanded pitching and lay off the low and away pitch. If he does that he will probably take a jump in production. Once he learns how to do those two things I doubt he forgets at 29.

[Sports Guy]

Well that is an opinion. Jones has to learn to hit lefthanded pitching and lay off the low and away pitch. If he does that he will probably take a jump in production. Once he learns how to do those two things I doubt he forgets at 29.

So, he has to be more patient and have a totally different approach at the plate?

That's it? Should be simple.

[GoldGlove21]

So, he has to be more patient and have a totally different approach at the plate?

That's it? Should be simple.

Yeah, I think at some point a player has to be what he is. I think it is a mistake to pass on dealing Jones, Hardy and maybe Wieters over the next 12-18 months. The return would be awesome IMO.

[Frobby]

However Adam Jones' WAR on his 26th birthday was 8.2 and Brady's was .7. You have to give the young players time to develop before saying they will never be as good as..................

They need experience.

Jones has way more experience than Brady had at his age. Brady had only 955 PA through his age 27 season, before he made his big jump. Jones has 2,419 PA already. I'm not saying Jones can't improve, or that he won't end up with a career as good as Brady's was. He might. But I'd hardly call him inexperienced. He's been an everyday player for four season.

Reimold is actually a better analogy to Brady, with his 847 PA through age 27.

[DrungoHazewood]

However Adam Jones' WAR on his 26th birthday was 8.2 and Brady's was .7. You have to give the young players time to develop before saying they will never be as good as..................

They need experience.

Of course you must realize that Brady was very, very atypical. The vast majority of players who have 0.7 career WAR on their 26th birthdays end up with a couple of WAR for their careers. Brady's top comp on bb-ref through age 26 was Bobby Del Greco, and at 25 was Stan Jefferson.

If you tell me that someone's just like Brady through age 26 my first thought is he's a long shot to have any kind of a career, not that he'll surge forward with experience and end up with 34 WAR.

[wildcard]

Jones has way more experience than Brady had at his age. Brady had only 955 PA through his age 27 season, before he made his big jump. Jones has 2,419 PA already. I'm not saying Jones can't improve, or that he won't end up with a career as good as Brady's was. He might. But I'd hardly call him inexperienced. He's been an everyday player for four season.

Reimold is actually a better analogy to Brady, with his 847 PA through age 27.

JMO but I think Jones is a young player who is still learning. Reimold probably has a lower ceiling then Jones. He has take longer to develop and hasn't become an everyday player yet.

Jones' career seems to have a better chance to match Brady's career than Reimold.