Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[NCRaven]

I think you guys are all missing the point of this trade. If you take a look at Hammel's 3 year splits... During pitches 31-45, opponents are hitting a measly .255 with an OPS of .699.

Even further, the #9 batter over the same 3 year period is hitting .208 against Hammel with an OPS of .510.

If you want a winning ball club, it starts with dominating those 2 statistics.

I have to think you're being sarcastic here. But, just in case, the #9 hitter in the NL is the pitcher.

[clapdiddy]

I'm at the point where I think change is good just for change sake.

I always liked Guthrie and felt he had the stuff to be a very good pitcher. He just seems to have too many mental or mechanical lapses where he loses his command.

I look at this trade as trading mediocrity (albeit more consistent) for younger mediocrity. Right now it's a "meh" trade. There's been nothing exciting done with the MLB team at this point and its been quite the boring offseason thus far. It doesn't mean some good things haven't been done...just nothing to excite the fanbase.

[PrivateO]

Jeremy Guthrie @JGuthrie46

Winners & Losers of @Rockies / @Orioles trade: Winners- #Yankees training staff. Losers: @NickSwisher batting avg.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Jeremy Guthrie @JGuthrie46

Winners & Losers of @Rockies / @Orioles trade: Winners- #Yankees training staff. Losers: @NickSwisher batting avg.

Dammit that's funny! I'm going to miss him

[Tony-OH]

So, how successful will a GM be when he lets emotions get in the way of decision making? If you are right, are you saying this is a petty and vindictive move?

I don't think it was vindictive, I think it was more the fact that Duquette/Angelos did not want to risk paying Guthrie $10 so they took the best offer they had right before the hearing.

[SteveO]

SOme people have touched on it. What is the upside here?? There really isn;t any. The upside is Hammel gives you Guthrie production for an extra year at a cheaper cost. That's just not good enough, and I'm not one to jump all over trades but this one bothers me.

I'm not entirely sure what people expected jeremy guthrie just does not have the value that some people seem to think he did. why would people prefer a b level prospect who may or may not ever make the majors or contribute in any meaningful way? this is the last place team prior to this trade and remain so afterwards. Am I a big fan of this trade no, but in fairness its nowhere near as bad as some people are making it out to be.

[mikegallo]

It's interesting. I've been one of the few folks not praising Duquette for his restructuring and moves. But, I'll be honest, I see someone with a very clear, and very consistent approach to risk and value. It's different than MacPhail's, but there's a logic to it. Clearly, he thinks that there was a serious over-correction with regards to prospect value that occurred within the last five years. And, if DD is right, he really will be pushing an innovative, market-optimizing approach. I'm not sure how it will work out, but, as I said, it's at least interesting.

Agreed and I am inclined to agree with DD in that line of thinking and as far as this trade goes I think many on here are overvaluing are guy and just aren't giving this trade a fair shake, here's why......

1. Guthrie basically had little to no value for this team going forward in terms of adding long term pieces to this team. He has one year left and given that DD stated there were no LT pieces offered now I see no reason to believe Guthrie is gonna blow the league away this year enough to up his value at the trade deadline to get us anything worth while....People just don't realize the league has really transformed into a pitchers game the last two years and a guy like Guthrie just doesn't hve the value he did 3 years ago...MOR starters are everywhere now just look at what E-Jax got as a FA...He is a much better pitcher than Guthrie who is being paid about the same contract on the open market and to thing Guthrie will get us anything with LT value is just not logical.

2. Hammel has had two years in the last three better than Guthrie has EVER had...He is a hard thrower who has two years left of team control and if he can get back to his xfip/fip of 2009/2010 he has a much better chance at getting us a LT piece than Guthrie did...Guthrie just has no surplus value at this point and Hammel does...Hammel gives us some chance of getting better, it's a risk, but this team needs to take risks to get better (which is something we hammer them about all the time).

3. Lindstrom is not a throw in by any means....The last two years he would have been one of our best RP and is under control for the next 2 years....Once again he has a chance to turn into a LT piece at the deadline or next offseason something Guthrie just won't do....He is a flame thrower who has had success in the Majors with a 3 something xfip/fip the last two years....That has alot of value at the deadline for sure if he pitches like he has in the past.

4. Guthrie is on the wrong side of thirty in his last year for a team who won't contend and about to go through a messy hearing which could hurt us with him being the Vet leader to the young guys...I know I don't want a pissed Guthrie in the clubhouse all year thats for sure. There just isn't much upside in keeping this guy around.

5. Hammel has been a 4 win pitcher two of the last three years...That is Elite type production and another 4 win season and suddenly he gets us a nice package of prospects next offseason and you still have a very good reliever in Lindstrom plus some LT prospects.

6. Lindstrom had a HR/9 of .5 last year in Coors field last year and has shown throughout his career his ability to prevent HR's and that is the biggest keys to success in pitching at OPACY.

All in all I really think this was a good roll of the dice by DD...At best you get a great two years out of these guys with 5+ WAR from them or you get a koji or sherrill trade package from Lindstrom and one of E-jax many trade packages type package for Hammel....At worst these guys flame out and you cut your loses and next offseason your in the same spot you would have been with guthrie, who I wouldn't want us to resign anyway...

I see alot of potential LT upside and virtually no LT downside, while there is potential downside for this upcoming season I think it is very mitagated by the potential rewards....This is the typical high upside move this team never makes and which is a nessacary move for this team to get out of the basement...Guthrie should have been traded 3 years ago, he wasn't, so DD pulled a move which could give us our best SP and RP for next year.

This is a B+ with a downside of a C grade and an upside of an A...........

I'll be expecting some comments and Rep......Thats a joke by the way.

[allstar1579]

I'm not entirely sure what people expected jeremy guthrie just does not have the value that some people seem to think he did. why would people prefer a b level prospect who may or may not ever make the majors or contribute in any meaningful way? this is the last place team prior to this trade and remain so afterwards. Am I a big fan of this trade no, but in fairness its nowhere near as bad as some people are making it out to be.

If he didn't have any value, then why has this trade been talked about NON-STOP on XM all day, and generally received in all facets of media and analysis as being a big win for COL?

If it were a ho-hum non-value player for non-value players it wouldn't have been mentioned. He's also projected as COL's #1 or #2 starter.

[ChaosLex]

From Rosenthal:

@Ken_Rosenthal

Sources: Three of four teams in LCS - #Rangers, #STLCards, #Tigers - had interest in Guthrie last summer.

[SteveO]

If he didn't have any value, then why has this trade been talked about NON-STOP on XM all day, and generally received in all facets of media and analysis as being a big win for COL?

If it were a ho-hum non-value player for non-value players it wouldn't have been mentioned. He's also projected as COL's #1 or #2 starter.

first and foremost I never said guthrie had no value. what I did say is that he did not have the value that people think he has. so is the premise that the orioles took the worst deal possible? the money is about a wash, so that's theory does not make any sense.

[clapdiddy]

From Rosenthal:

But, we couldn't afford to lose him at that time. He was too valuable to our team.

[TonySoprano]

From Rosenthal:

Andy was busy packing away his extensive sweater vest at the time so he wasn't able to find time to percolate. In fairness, I doubt Angelos would have allowed the trade because it would have appeared that the Orioles were mailing in the season. Not that it wasn't apparent early in the season anyway, but those critical two or three extra wins really matter to Pete.

[weams]

3. Lindstrom is not a throw in by any means....The last two years he would have been one of our best RP and is under control for the next 2 years....Once again he has a chance to turn into a LT piece at the deadline or next offseason something Guthrie just won't do....He is a flame thrower who has had success in the Majors with a 3 something xfip/fip the last two years....That has alot of value at the deadline for sure if he pitches like he has in the past.

6. Lindstrom had a HR/9 of .5 last year in Coors field last year and has shown throughout his career his ability to prevent HR's and that is the biggest keys to success in pitching at OPACY.

2012 road ERA of 1.71 Opponent batting average against of just .232 when pitching with runners in scoring position. Including in Coors Field.

[Fan4Life]

From Rosenthal:

AM is still peculating on that move.

[jgaro]

I am happy for Guthrie. He pitched very good for a losing club and only blamed himself whenever things went bad. I hope he has a lot of success in Denver. Maybe this change of scenery will be good for him.