Dan Duquette: No teams were willing to offer us young prospects in return for Guthrie

[Sports Guy]

The bottom line on Hammel is pretty simple...If he can pitch like he did in 2009 and 2010 and put up the solid K, BB and HR rates, have an above average str% and miss bats at a good rate, he should be successful in this division.

If he pitches like he did last year, he will get lit up like a christmas tree.

[Tony-OH]

Colorado is a more difficult place to pitch in than Camden. I think the AL East issue has merit, but not sure why we're worried about OPACY. One thing to note is that Colorado is off-the-charts high for LD park factor, while Camden seems to suppress the issue. Hammel has had an elevated LD% the last few years, and the Orioles may think that they get a context-bump in performance from that alone, w/o any tweaking.

The other thing to take into consideration is the fact that Hammel has two above-average to plus- pitches - his curve and slider. Both are negatively impacted in Colorado. Not all pitchers (especially those who can command a plus-fastball) are going to take the same hit in that park, but Hammel may have been a particularly poor fit, all things considered.

None of this is sure-fire. For instance, while his splits in Colorado appear to generally favor his away outings, he was better at home last year.

Not according to his pitch values.

[Lucky Jim]

Not according to his pitch values.

Right. According to his scouting reports. This is exactly what I'm talking about. If there's a gap between pure, decontextualized stuff and performance, it's possible that it's pinned to park context.

[clapdiddy]

And I think you are totally overrating the trade. I wasn't against moving Guthrie, but if all you can get is Hammel and Lindstrom, I personally thin you hold on to him and hope someone gets desperate. Lindstrom is ok but he's overpaid. I haven't seen Hammel pitch but the numbers suggest he's going to struggle in the AL East. In other worse. Basically I see this trade at best a wash. Theoretically the trade could be a win for the Orioles if Hammel defies his numbers and pitches better in the AL East then in the weak NL West and Lindstrom has an up year, but I just think the chances of that happening didn't weigh out the 200 plus innings Guthrie virtually guarantees you. Duquette said he wanted to have 200 inning pitchers and now he doesn't have one who has actually done it in the major leagues.

Hammel has averaged 5.6 innings per start over his career and 5.9 last year. However, he did it with an average of 92 pitches and 95 last year. He won't be able to cruise through the 8 and 9 hitters like he did in the National league and teams like the Red Sox and Yankees alone will cause those pitch counts to go up or his innings total go down. With Hammel I see a 5 to 6 inning starter in the AL East who is probably going to have a high 4 or low 5 ERA. He's depth, but I don't see him improving the Orioles in the future when they are competitive.

If you are going to trade people, the Orioles need to be getting guys who have the potential to help the team to become better in the near or longterm future. I don't see either with Hammel.

This is a good point. You would think a similar move could be made near the end of spring training. At that point, you may have an injury that could lead to a different trade...maybe not a better one...but certainly something similar.

[atomic]

The bottom line on Hammel is pretty simple...If he can pitch like he did in 2009 and 2010 and put up the solid K, BB and HR rates, have an above average str% and miss bats at a good rate, he should be successful in this division.

If he pitches like he did last year, he will get lit up like a christmas tree.

He pitched the same all 3 years. Why is that so hard to grasp.

[Sports Guy]

Not according to his pitch values.

Just FYI:

This is a relatively new statistic at FanGraphs and it has limited predictive power. They can show you what pitches a pitcher has had success with in the past, but you should be careful in extrapolating those results and projecting the future. It’s a descriptive statistic, not a predictive one

Still, they haven't been consistently good, so you definitely take something from them.

I will say that in 2009, he had a swingstr% of 16% and is usually at 12%...So, he does do a decent job of missing bats...better than Guthrie.

[Sports Guy]

He pitched the same all 3 years. Why is that so hard to grasp.

Because he didn't and saying he did is really awful and shows an inability of being able to read a stat sheet.

[Frobby]

Let's just look at our two best arms and how they differ:

Zach Britton - 2.5 fWAR, 1.3 rWAR (4.00 FIP, 4.61 ERA)

Jeremy Guthrie - 2.1 fWAR, 2.9 rWAR ( 4.48 FIP, 4.33 ERA)

Britton was severely penalized for the Orioles' poor defense around him, but his FIP shows that he pitched better than Guthrie did. Fangraphs shows this while BBRef does not.

This totally depends on whether you think FIP is a good measure of how a pitcher was affected by his defense.

[quidam]

If this was the best deal they could get this offseason then so be it.

For those that wanted to wait until the deadline I suggest you look at the return that 30+ year old pitchers who make 8M+ have gotten over the past couple years. Guys like Jason Marquis, Matt Morris, Ted Lilly, and Jarrod Washburn.

IMO, the potential value of the Rockies return is much greater then 15th-30th ranked organizational prospects.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Right. According to his scouting reports. This is exactly what I'm talking about. If there's a gap between pure, decontextualized stuff and performance, it's possible that it's pinned to park context.

Coors supposedly can affect CB/slider performance. I'm not sure why his FB rates so low though and he seems to pitch fairly well at Coors.

[Lucky Jim]

Coors supposedly can affect FB/slider performance. I'm not sure why his FB rates so low though and he seems to pitch fairly well at Coors.

Complete agreement.

Colorado is a more difficult place to pitch in than Camden. I think the AL East issue has merit, but not sure why we're worried about OPACY. One thing to note is that Colorado is off-the-charts high for LD park factor, while Camden seems to suppress the issue. Hammel has had an elevated LD% the last few years, and the Orioles may think that they get a context-bump in performance from that alone, w/o any tweaking. Colorado also suppresses K%, and performance similar to 2009-2010 could theoretically result in a very respectable 8ish K/9.

One of the reasons I imagine the K-rate is suppressed is atmospheric. Hammel has two above-average to plus- pitches - his curve and slider. Both are negatively impacted in Colorado. Not all pitchers (especially those who can command a plus-fastball) are going to take the same hit in that park, but Hammel may have been a particularly poor fit, all things considered. This issue may be exacerbated a bit by the fact that, according to scouting reports I've read, Hammel likes to go to his breaking pitches with two strikes.

None of this is sure-fire. In fact, take it with a grain of salt. For instance, while his splits in Colorado appear to generally favor his away outings, he was better at home last year. Likewise, his K-rates have always been higher at home, in Colorado. I'm not sure this empties out the argument completely - though it certainly may. I don't write off the fact that Hammel may have adapted to pitch against his strengths in Colorado, however.

Again, grain of salt, etc. But these are possible wild-card factors that the O's may have taken into consideration.

[Camden_yardbird]

It's possible, but not likely. His numbers are not going to improve by pitching half his games in Camden Yards as well as facing AL East hitters. I'll be surprised if the guy posts an ERA under 5. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see anything about his numbers that suggest he will have success in the AL East or Camden Yards.

I guess we will see what is worse, the Coors effect or the ALE effect. Either way someone is getting sloshed, and not in the good way.

[SrMeowMeow]

Not according to his pitch values.

The pitch value stats are basically garbage. I've never seen any good analysis performed with them because they simply don't really mean anything.

[atomic]

Because he didn't and saying he did is really awful and shows an inability of being able to read a stat sheet.

Well i am able to read a stat sheet. I don't believe FIP is a very good stat for evaluating performance. You can believe all you want. But if two guys are on the same team both pitch 200 innings and one guy has batters hitting .350 against them another has batters hitting .220 off of him there FIP's could be exactly the same and I would choose the guy who keeps batter to .220 batting average. You would say they were the same. Well I wonder how that would work out for you as a GM.

I am sure there is some corelation between FIP and actual stats that judge performance. As throwing strikes and not giving up home runs is a good thing. There is certainly not a direct corelation. And it is certainly nothing I would use to judge whether a pitcher had a good year.

[Lucky Jim]

Well i am able to read a stat sheet. I don't believe FIP is a very good stat for evaluating performance. You can believe all you want. But if two guys are on the same team both pitch 200 innings and one guy has batters hitting .350 against them another has batters hitting .220 off of him there FIP's could be exactly the same and I would choose the guy who keeps batter to .220 batting average. You would say they were the same. Well I wonder how that would work out for you as a GM.

I am sure there is some corelation between FIP and actual stats that judge performance. As throwing strikes not giving up home runs is a good thing. There is certainly not a direct corelation. And it is certainly nothing I would use to judge whether a pitcher had a good year.

In other words, you'd chose Kevin Millwood (.235 BABIP / 2.68 ERA / 3.53 FIP) over Greg Maddux (.325 BABIP / 3.57 ERA / 3.40 FIP) in 1999 (and going forward)?

Good call, Mr. GM.