The pieces are in place for a winning team

[DrungoHazewood]

The O's enter Spring Training with the position players pretty much set. We know who is likely to start. Markakis, Jones and Reimold in the outfield. Davis, Andino, Hardy and Reynolds in the infield. Wieters catching. We know that Teagarden and Chavez will be on the bench. When the power of that lineup is projected it probably exceed 200 home runs. It not hard to imagine the team putting up 760-770 runs. That places them around 5th in the league.

The team goes as far as the pitching takes it. I think most (but not all) agree that the talent is on the team to have 5 starters, each that can win in double figures if they get the offense that is stated above. Britton, Arrieta and Matusz are projected as high ceiling pitchers. Hunter has already had a 13 win season. His problem is health and he has been working with Brady to try to insure he gets through the season. Chen, Wada and Hammel all have starter credentials that mean that at least one and maybe more could win in double digits.

The pen with Johnson, Lindstrom, Strop, Patton, Ayala plus some overflow of starters is good enough to win.

The question is how many of the pitchers are able to fulfill their potential or some part their potential this year. When I say the pieces are in place, that does not mean that it is ready to all come together. The parts all fitting together is the piece that is unknown. Will it or won't it happen in 2012? Will it happen before September, which is what we have seen that last two years?

So I think the pieces are on the team.......its reaching of the potential this year that is the question.

I guess optimism isn't a bad thing, but I'm struggling to figure out why you always do this. By "this" I mean put out this hyperoptimisic take on the team that you kind of present as just as likely as anything else happening.

The reality is that this team's mid-case scenario is 70 or 75 wins. A lot of things would have to go right to get to .500, and it would take a once-in-a-lifetime kind of 1989 luck to really contend. It's a team that is coming off 69 wins and only made a handful of substantial changes.

200 homers and 5+ starters with 10 or more wins? Really? I guess February 21st is the only time for this kind of thing, long before reality has set in.

[DrungoHazewood]

I can see the infield defense being much better this year. The O's made 13 errors at 1B last year. Davis has a .997 career fielding pct at 1B. That is about 4 errors per season. Add a couple of errors for whoever plays when Davis rests.

If Reynolds is really is in much better shape maybe he goes from 31 one errors to his 2010 rate of 18. That is still below average defense but a move down of 13 errors would help the team.

Andino had a .990 fielding pct at 2nd last year and a good part of that was while he was learning to play 2B. I think we could see the O's have two or three less errors at 2B. That is 22 less errors from the 110 they made last year for 88 team errors which would have placed them 3rd on the AL last year. That would effect the pitches the pitcher need to make, lower the runs scored against the O's and lead to more wins.

22 infield errors is about the same as 22 singles. The run value of 22 singles is about 10, which is approximately one win. Which means that the 2011 Orioles with 22 fewer infield errors wins about 70 games.

[33rdst]

Wildcard, I raise my glass and offer a toast to your optimism and cheerfully imbibe in the orange nectar savored by those of us intoxicated by thoughts of cartoon birds and orange and black championships. Cheers!

[duffaphonic]

I love all of the springtime optimism but I also look at the AL East lineups and rotations. Springtime is great.

[atomic]

I can see the infield defense being much better this year. The O's made 13 errors at 1B last year. Davis has a .997 career fielding pct at 1B. That is about 4 errors per season. Add a couple of errors for whoever plays when Davis rests.

If Reynolds is really is in much better shape maybe he goes from 31 one errors to his 2010 rate of 18. That is still below average defense but a move down of 13 errors would help the team.

Andino had a .990 fielding pct at 2nd last year and a good part of that was while he was learning to play 2B. I think we could see the O's have two or three less errors at 2B. That is 22 less errors from the 110 they made last year for 88 team errors which would have placed them 3rd on the AL last year. That would effect the pitches the pitcher need to make, lower the runs scored against the O's and lead to more wins.

There is more to fielding than errors. Reynolds does'nt have range. I think having him at third all year basically will gurantee a losing season.

Anyway the Orioles have a lot of problems. To have a winning season they spectacular seasons out of Chen and Wada. They need for arrieta and briton to improve on last year. They need a healthy team including brian roberts. For all the depth they talk about on this team there really isn't much. There is no one who is going to step up if Wieters, Markakis, or Hardy get injured.

[Frobby]

There is more to fielding than errors. Reynolds does'nt have range. I think having him at third all year basically will gurantee a losing season.

He has lost 17 pounds, let's see what that does for his range. If he fields as bad as last year he won't stay at 3B all season. He had by far his worst season both in terms of range and fielding percentage last year, so let's see if he can do better. If he can't, Buck will have to try something else.

[atomic]

He has lost 17 pounds, let's see what that does for his range. If he fields as bad as last year he won't stay at 3B all season. He had by far his worst season both in terms of range and fielding percentage last year, so let's see if he can do better. If he can't, Buck will have to try something else.

I wonder when all our pitchers who trained with brady have bad seasons will they blame being to muscular as well.

[Frobby]

I wonder when all our pitchers who trained with brady have bad seasons will they blame being to muscular as well.

Do you ever have anything positive to say? I mean, I understand the reasons why you are pessimistic, but it's all pessimism all the time for you. If you're that miserable, why follow the team? Do you just like watching train wrecks?

Look, I'm not promising that Reynolds will be any better defensively than he was last year. But let's find out, rather than just assuming that his career-worst defensive season is the best he can do. I'm sure Buck won't have that long a leash if Reynolds can't improve substantially on 2011.

[El Gordo]

I am worried most about false hope.

If this team goes .500+ and it comes mostly from the older players who somehow have a career year w/ little growth from the young players. I could see the FO going ape over themselves, make stupid moves and we end up like the early 90's again.

Yes, '89 was a good time but, in the grand scheme of things it just derailed what the team was trying/should do...rebuild for the future. Instead of concentrating on fixing the farm they went with pay'em what they want. Of course they made the playoffs twice but look were we are now.

I just don't want history to repeat itself...again

If the team wins 81+ games it will be because the pitching is good. The oldest SP is Hammel at 29.

[Frobby]

If the team wins 81+ games it will be because the pitching is good. The oldest SP is Hammel at 29.

Wadabout Wada? (see what I did there?)

[Basketeer]

While I won't deny the OP his optimism, there are a ton of "ifs" in that post.

[El Gordo]

While I won't deny the OP his optimism, there are a ton of "ifs" in that post.

I missed where he predicted our record. I got the impression he was saying the individual players have the potential to play well emough to make this a team that wins more than it loses. I think that's a pretty modest assumption, but apparently I'm a minority of one.

[Scrat1]

The pieces are in place for a winning team. In the NL West. Probably not even then.

[brianod]

Why Not?

[SammyBirdland]

We have some nice offense. Unfortunately we're going into the season with five question marks in the starting rotation. As always, pitching wins.