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ESPN mag says orioles will....

SilentJames

By SilentJames
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
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Boston lost an almost record amount of games lost due to injury and still won 90 some games. The Yankees could pull Jack McDowell out of retirement and make him successful. They do that stuff every year with guys like Colon and Garcia. They've been getting old for what seems like a decade now yet they're always winning 90 some games. TB is going to be a monster this year and even the Blue Jays look like a high 80 win team. The Orioles aren't within 10 wins of any of those teams.

Crawford is already hurt, Paps is gone, Bard is moving back to the bullpen and do you really think that Ellsbury puts up anything close to 321/376/928 with 32 HR again?

I don't see how you can look at the rest of the AL East and say any of them markedly improved. Yes they are a lot better then the O's, but they were last year as well and the O's won 69 games.

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Skeletor All-Star

Skeletor

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Crawford is already hurt, Paps is gone, Bard is moving back to the bullpen and do you really think that Ellsbury puts up anything close to 321/376/928 with 32 HR again?

I don't see how you can look at the rest of the AL East and say any of them markedly improved. Yes they are a lot better then the O's, but they were last year as well and the O's won 69 games.

Crawford and Papelbon?

I'll admit that I don't follow the "hope springs eternal" mantra much anymore, but Crawford was **** and Paps is just a reliever, albeit a very good one. Boston being healthy will probably net them another 5-8 wins over last year.

There is now way the Os win 70 games this year. Pitching was horrible last year and what do the Os do? Trade their best starter and roll the dice on a couple Asian imports.

How do you look at a 69 win team that added no impact players and say "yeah, we are going to be better"?

They're not even trying.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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Crawford and Papelbon?

I'll admit that I don't follow the "hope springs eternal" mantra much anymore, but Crawford was **** and Paps is just a reliever, albeit a very good one. Boston being healthy will probably net them another 5-8 wins over last year.

There is now way the Os win 70 games this year. Pitching was horrible last year and what do the Os do? Trade their best starter and roll the dice on a couple Asian imports.

How do you look at a 69 win team that added no impact players and say "yeah, we are going to be better"?

They're not even trying.

Happy to make a mutually assured destruction bet on this.

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Barnaby Graves Veteran All-Star

Barnaby Graves

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They won 69 last season with Scott and Roberts hurt, and Matusz putting in the worst season EVER.

Scott has been replaced by Chris Davis (I presume), Roberts was out but Andino was pretty good and will be playing again this year, likely not as well as 2011. So no wins added there unless Chris Davis is the next Luke Scott and he's probably not.

Do you really think loosing Vlad and DLee is going to have a negative impact on team wins?

Do you really like putting words in peoples' mouths?

You think the O's are going to have a hard time replacing the 9-17 record Guts gave them?

Do you really think Jeremy Guthrie was 9-17 because of Jeremy Guthrie? Because if people think Hammel is going to put up a 4.25-4.50 ERA this year (I am not one of those people) he could just as easily go 9-17.

What makes you think that this years team is 9 wins worse then last season?

Zach Britton has an injured shoulder, Markakis is coming off a serious injury, Andino played above his head last year, Hardy's offense will likely be down (and I guess it's not really fair to him but those 129 games he played last year are more than I expect this year).

I used to think in terms of "well such and such was so craptacular last year, he can't really be worse, and we no longer have X/Y/Z combining for a 451.29 ERA over 100 innings, so there's some wins" but we have those guys every year. We have depth but it's not like it's high quality minor league depth it's just a bunch of AAAA stuff. People will get injured, a guy will come up, he'll have a 5.50 ERA, such-and-such's rehab has been setback, 5.50 ERA guy gets more innings than he should, and before you know it it's August and such-and-such is out for the year and we throw our hands up and say, we're 15 back, just tell Jakubauskas to throw strikes so the game ends sooner.

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Skeletor All-Star

Skeletor

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Okay. So, how do we frame it? If there's "no way" the O's win 70 games, it's clearly not 1:1 odds. Suggestions?

Oh right, you're a lawyer, and a reader. If the Os win 70 I'll buy you a book off Amazon <$40. I'll have a $20 cap.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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Oh right, you're a lawyer, and a reader. If the Os win 70 I'll buy you a book off Amazon <$40. I'll have a $20 cap.

Well, that's far too gentlemanly. ;)

I don't think we can bet cash. And we can't do sig bets anymore, I guess....Hmmm.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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Why not make it a beer the next time you're in Baltimore for a game?

Or better yet, several of them, at Pickles or the like.

A good bet, but way-deferred. We'll figure it out.

Looks like you're predicting less than 66 wins, Skeletor. How many do you think they win?

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