Arrieta on the Bubble?

[backwardsk]

I consider the Tampa start far worse than the Texas start. The Texas start wasn't great, but Arrieta did make it into the 7th inning against a very potent lineup.

But I'm not here to defend Jake. He clearly needs to pitch better if he wants to keep his spot. I just don't think that the leash is so short that he could lose his spot with a bad performance tonight.

And I don't think he was as bad against Tampa as the line looks. Remember he had a strike 'em out/throw 'em out DP that didn't happen because of a bad ball 4 call. That led to a crooked inning and extra batters faced. Bad outing, yes. But that'll be his outlier, IMO.

[Frobby]

Jake Arietta's stuff is beyond question. The Orioles would have to be complete idiots to remove him from the rotation anytime soon. He has the potential to be a 2 or 3 starter similar to Matt Garza. I make that comparison simply because their velocity is identical, they are both right-handed, they both throw about 60% fastballs with the other 40% being mostly sliders and curves that have the potential to be plus pitches (both occasionally show changeups but throw them a very low percentage of the time). Since Arrieta is two years behind Garza - age wise - I would look to Garza's 2010 Al East campaign for comparison. For me it's not about whether Arrieta stays in the rotation. He's got to be given every opportunity to start moving towards his ceiling with his prime years expected to be between 28-30.

You do realize that Garza had three straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons before 2010, right? "Stuff" is great, but consistent performance is what matters.

[weams]

I believe that Jake's 96 mph fastball can benefit the major league team better than sending him to the minors. If he loses his spot in the rotation to someone who pitches better, so be it.

And now that I said that, I am wondering what we are doing with Chris Tillman's 95mph fastball (at least in relief) in the minors. Did I just lose my own argument?

[jofalfa]

Agree that it's a big start for Jake. I believe I read in Roch's blog after his last start that he was concerned about going deep in the game and was thinking about being too perfect. To quote The Sandlot: "Man this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking." He's just got to trust his stuff and go play. And......don't shake off Wieters

[weams]

And......don't shake off Wieters

Quoted for truth. Jake is one of the guys who does that a lot. Guthrie was another...

[TheBee]

You do realize that Garza had three straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons before 2010, right? "Stuff" is great, but consistent performance is what matters.

Ok. And he was given the chance to mature into the starter he is now, which is what Arrieta can be in a few years too. I don't get what I'm supposed to be realizing from your post.

[Frobby]

And now that I said that, I am wondering what we are doing with Chris Tillman's 95mph fastball (at least in relief) in the minors. Did I just lose my own argument?

Fastball velocity is by far the most overrated aspect of pitching. The road is littered with pitchers who could throw 95 mph but didn't have good command, didn't have secondary stuff, or both.

To me, Arrieta does have good secondary pitches. Command is the issue. Some days he has it, some days he doesn't, and other days he has it for a while and then it disappears. We just have to hope that at some point he becomes more consistent. If he could look like he did against the Yankees every time out, we'd have one awesome pitcher. But how many times did we say that about DCab?

[Frobby]

Ok. And he was given the chance to mature into the starter he is now, which is what Arrieta can be in a few years too. I don't get what I'm supposed to be realizing from your post.

What you are missing is that Garza had a 3.69 ERA in his second year in the league, and has never been over 4.00 since. Arrieta had a 5.00 ERA in his second year in the league, and is over 5.00 now. Arrieta has had more time to mature than Garza did before he started pitching well. That doesn't mean Arrieta can't be a good pitcher, but it is the reason I don't think the Garza comp works very well.

[Lucky Jim]

Fastball velocity is by far the most overrated aspect of pitching. The road is littered with pitchers who could throw 95 mph but didn't have good command, didn't have secondary stuff, or both.

And the road is littered with players who couldn't throw 88mph and thus never made it to pro ball.

Obviously, velocity is important. There's a threshold below which success is highly unlikely. And as velocity increases, so does the likelihood of success - unless there are factors that mitigate that success. Can you overcome a lack of velocity? Sure. But there's no denying the how, or why, it's relevant.

[Brendan25]

Jake is not even close to being "on the bubble" yet. Stuff is too good, and he hasn't struggled long enough.

A win tonight would be huge, but he needs to take the pressure off of himself. I'm sure Buck has told him that to. Just pitch.

[Frobby]

Jake is not even close to being "on the bubble" yet. Stuff is too good, and he hasn't struggled long enough..

I agree with the second part, he hasn't struggled long enough. But what does his "stuff" have to do with whether he is on the bubble or not? If he had three more terrible outings in a row, I really wouldn't care much if he was throwing 88 mph or 98 mph. Stuff, shmuff.

I guess I've just about had it with people's fascination with "stuff." How many years did we waste on Ponson and DCab? I am by no means implying that I put Arrieta in the Ponson/DCab category, but they serve to illustrate a point: "stuff" only gets you so far. So we need to see some results from Arrieta pretty soon.

[Sanfran327]

I can't imagine a universe where Eveland starts over Arrieta.

It's the same universe in which people walk on their hands and hamburgers eat people.

Also, horses ride jockeys.

[Lucky Jim]

It's the same universe in which people walk on their hands and hamburgers eat people.

Also, horses ride jockeys.

Is it the universe where Flaherty is our starting third baseman, too?

[TheBee]

No comp is perfect, but their stuff is remarkably similar in my opinion. As far as Garza's past, I see what you are saying. I am trying to do too many things at once right now. I think we are both arguing for time and some patience with Jake, however I'm apparently putting more emphasis on his being 26 than you. One last thing about Garza, his eras were great as you pointed out, but there were other issues - especially with walks.

Matt Garza, Legitimate Number One Starterby Ben Duronio - April 13, 2012

Matt Garza has always had the stuff to be an elite top tier starter, but never quite put it all together until last year.

[Sanfran327]

Is it the universe where Flaherty is our starting third baseman, too?

Kind of goes along with your post earlier regarding how we've been able to sustain success despite our shortcomings. Once Reimold, Britton, Teagarden, Lindstrom, and Reynolds are all back, we could be even better.

Flaherty wouldn't be a hot topic if we were in our usual position at the bottom of the standings, IMO. Even still, I don't think he's quite that bad... I just think he's learning. I don't think Buck would let it get to the point where he'd sacrifice the success of the team for Flaherty's development.