Dan Duquette on O's pitching philosophy: "We don't like the cutter"

[CA-ORIOLE]

For the geeks and the obsessives.

20 teams have a negative PitchFX pitch value/100 against the cutter: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=14&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

7 teams have a negative PitchFX pitch value/100 against the fastball: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=14&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

For context, because that disparity seems extreme, in 2011:

21 teams had a negative PitchFX pitch value/100 against the cutter: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=14&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

18 teams had a negative PitchFX pitch value/100 against the fastball: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=14&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

If I'm mis-reading the chart, apologies (this is always possible).

Since most players can hit fastballs, I'd guess that's not really surprising. In the end, the FB is the means to set up secondary pitches which is typically where the cutter would be employed in most cases imo. How does the cutter stack up against other secondary pitches (i.e pitches other than the 2S/4S fastball)?

[Say O!]

Top frequency of cutter in 2011, per fangraphs.

Taking a quick glance through the top 30 or so, shows a lot of guys who do not rely on velocity, have recently lost velocity, and who are struggling to get by.

Also, let's not forget that some hard sliders may be classified as a cutter by pitch f/x. To me, David Price has more of a slight break slider than cut-fastball.

[Lucky Jim]

Just stop. Seriously. You have no idea what you're talking about here.

You've got some serious causation/correlation issues. Ugh.

Having been neg rep'd for this and accused of trolling, let me apologize. I posted on the fly w/ every intention of coming back and elaborating. Which I did. I should have waited to post anything, obviously - at the time, the issue I had w/ it seemed like common sense, but I was likely mistaken.

[brianod]

Since most players can hit fastballs, I'd guess that's not really surprising. In the end, the FB is the means to set up secondary pitches which is typically where the cutter would be employed in most cases imo. How does the cutter stack up against other secondary pitches (i.e pitches other than the 2S/4S fastball)?

A well placed fastball is the best out pitch in baseball. The fastball is not a setup pitch as you describe.

[Lucky Jim]

Top frequency of cutter in 2011, per fangraphs.

Taking a quick glance through the top 30 or so, shows a lot of guys who do not rely on velocity, have recently lost velocity, and who are struggling to get by.

What's your takeaway, Say O?

[Miller192]

So you want Bundy to lie to the Orioles. Interesting.

Don't take me too seriously, meat.

I tried to throw a cutter in college but it felt like I was throwing a duckpin bowling ball so I dumped it. I can definitely understand where someone could lose velocity throwing the pitch.

I'd imaging though, that Bundy's cutter will always be there. If nothing more than a wrinkle in a prolonged AB a few times a game.

[Ven6]

Here is an alternative thought on the subject

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120322&content_id=27499204&c_id=mlb

While this article is pro-cutter, it points out the exact same issues DD has. Including the guys who are praising saying it can be dangerous in that you lose your feel for the fastball (and lose velocity).

[CA-ORIOLE]

Everything else aside, Duquette sounds confrontational and thick in that article. Possibly the quotes are paraphrased, but they're in quotation marks, so...I dunno.

I'd need to see some actual evidence to agree with Duquette here, especially when his main argument is "name me pitchers who succeed with a cutter" and the recent pitching renaissance has been credited to, among a few other possibilities, the spread of the cut fastball.

We don't like the cutter. We don't like the cutter as an effective pitch. Name me all the great pitchers that used it as their primary pitch in the big leagues."

It's not like the Orioles have not taken the cutter away from guys like Tilllman and Hunter. Pretty obviously they like Hunter throwing it less and developing his other pitches. For Hunter I think it has been a developmental issue. Probably lot less of an issue with Tillman.

[Lucky Jim]

Since most players can hit fastballs, I'd guess that's not really surprising. In the end, the FB is the means to set up secondary pitches which is typically where the cutter would be employed in most cases imo. How does the cutter stack up against other secondary pitches (i.e pitches other than the 2S/4S fastball)?

2012: 19 teams w/ a negative value against curves. 13 against change-ups. 26 against sliders.

2011: 16 teams w/ a negative value against curves. 18 against change-ups. 27 against sliders.

I know where you're coming from re: FBs, and I agree. Though the cutter isn't really a secondary in the same way as those other pitches, which is precisely why a lot of pitchers like it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

A well placed fastball is the best out pitch in baseball. The fastball is not a setup pitch as you describe.

I'm quite sure the BA against FB's is the highest among any other pitch. The bottom line is you have to lead with a fastball, and yes the FB is what sets up your secondary pitches. Good FB command just makes you a better pitcher.

[CA-ORIOLE]

2012: 19 teams w/ a negative value against curves. 13 against change-ups. 26 against sliders.

2011: 16 teams w/ a negative value against curves. 18 against change-ups. 27 against sliders.

I know where you're coming from re: FBs, and I agree. Though the cutter isn't really a secondary in the same way as those other pitches, which is precisely why a lot of pitchers like it.

I think this is DD's point of contention, that it really is. That's without even getting into the developmental issues.

[Lucky Jim]

I think this is DD's point of contention that it really is. That's without even getting into the developmental issues.

I'm much more interested in a (i) good change-up; and (ii) a hammer curve from Bundy than I am a dynamite cutter, so I'm not really that far away. But his statistical support seems (and all we have is the article) pretty shallow, and - as I noted earlier - there's not really much logic behind a bright line rule against it's use. We don't know, yet, if that's really what they're talking about.

[Lucky Jim]

Eh, no worries. For the record, just know that I'm always willing to think a little harder about stuff when presented with a good argument, which you did.

I can get sharp, but don't like to be dismissive w/o a "fulsome" explanation for my issues. That post definitely was more dismissive than I try to be - but I was literally running out the door at the time.

That said, and I may not be objective, but I don't think I was "trolling" or "classless" or "throwing a hissy fit" or "acting like a 14 year old." (Such vitriol from the chattering class.)

[EagleOriole]

Don't take me too seriously, meat.

I tried to throw a cutter in college but it felt like I was throwing a duckpin bowling ball so I dumped it. I can definitely understand where someone could lose velocity throwing the pitch.

I'd imaging though, that Bundy's cutter will always be there. If nothing more than a wrinkle in a prolonged AB a few times a game.

Yeah, I am going to go with the theory that DD proclamations have exceptions...not every prospect needs a certain number of innings in AA-AAA, not every pitcher needs to dump their cutter...if it is going to help him be successful at the ML level, they will let him use it. Guess we have to wait til he gets here to find out if it is an out pitch at the ML Level.

[SrMeowMeow]

Fangraphs quickly demolished the batting average against argument.