Cubbies want Tejada???

[geschinger]

He's 3-for-his last-29 in the postseason. Which is about as meaningful as Mickey Mantle's three consecutive World Series where he hit between .120 and .167 (hint: not at all). Or as damning as Yogi Berra once being 7-for-50 in WS play, (from '47 to '50).

Before this tiny postseason slump ARod hit .300 with a .500 or .700 slugging percentage in the postseason like clockwork.

While I agree completely with what you are saying in principle, I think it's different for ARod. His failures in the postseason recently just about guarantee that he's going to have to go through all of next year as a whipping boy for the fans. No matter how good he plays, it'll be he can't do it when it matters as a Yankee. And god forbid, if he struggles at all next year things will be brutal for him. He really needed to have a good postseason to get the 800 lb monkey off of his back. So for him, that 3-29 is incredibly meaningful.

[Rockbird]

Prior is damaged goods. Hill would be "yet another" mid-20s dominant minor league arm who's inconsistent in the majors to join our cast.

Oh and WHO exactly would hit for us!? I mean, we're not signing Soriano or Lee and if we trade Tejada, who the hell drives in runs? Gibbons? What about when he has his inevitable 2 month sabaticle? Ramon? Trading Tejada is dangerous territorry unless the package back is so overwhelming as to justify the loss in offensive production. This doesn't do it.

[BigSkip]

Any deal with the Cubs would have to include Zambrano.

B-I-N-G-O...

To send Tejada to the Cubs I don't want overvalued prospects or continuously injured pitchers. I want a money player, and Zambrano is one of the very few they have.

[srock]

IMHO, if the a healthy Prior is not part of the deal, the Cubs can't (or won't) come close to meeting what Tejada can still command. Even in 3 way deals, the value has to be roughly the same, the reason for involving a third team is usually because one team already is set with what the other wants to offer.

Besides, I don't think it is overly linear to say that we match up with other teams, i.e. the Angels. Unfortunately, seeing what happens with ARod may put everyone on hold.

And I still say that of all the things the team can do, keeping a SS that is good for .300/25/110 for at least another couple of seasons would not be the worst decision.

The total value between all three teams has to be roughly the same. This is easier to achieve when more options are available to even out a trade.

Per the context of this discussion based purely on rumors we are saying the Cubs have available:

-Prior

-Hill

-Murton

The Orioles have available:

-Tejada

So far the entire discussion has been: 'Can this combination of players create a trade?'

I am saying looking at this like these are the only teams and players available is silly. If a perfect match comes along, then great, due it straight up but it doesn't take long to determine if the match is imperfect. In this case, I don't think the Orioles are willing to take Prior due to his injury risk since the organization has many young starting pitchers and other options in Free agency. The Orioles should be interested in Hill and Murton but they need to get more then just these guys for Tejada.

The solution requires looking at other organizations needs to find a place to stick Prior.

Example: Find a team in need of a SP who is more willing to take on his injury risk who has something Baltimore needs. So Baltimore would get Murton, Hill, and this currently undetermined player. The Cubs get Tejada. This other team gets Prior. Everybody is happy.

Finding such a trading partner is certainly challenging, but its easier for a GM to do this then bang their head on the wall trying to make a trade with a single team even though equal value can never be realized. This is likely what other GM's feel when attempting to trade with the Orioles

[tylerfrombelair]

I trade Tejada if and only if we dont get Texiera or a big bat to hit behind him. Like many of you said. Why watch Tejada waste his talent on a team that has no intentions on competing. Tejada still has value. Now, if you can get Texiera/Dunn w/o giving up Tejada you keep him. With protection Miggy has proved he can step up and be the guy to lead the team(Former MVP and drove in 150 in 04'). Getting Tex or Dunn would probably have to be centered around D-Cab/Penn with Liz/Olsen and a major league player like Gibbons. Although writers have said they wouldnt ask a whole lot for Tex, i doubt thats true.

As for the Cubs deal, i wouldnt do it. Too many iffs. Prior is glass and I can hit better than Izturis. So it would be Tejada for Rich Hill.. which is a horrible trade.

[KstateBird]

The total value between all three teams has to be roughly the same. This is easier to achieve when more options are available to even out a trade.

Per the context of this discussion based purely on rumors we are saying the Cubs have available:

-Prior

-Hill

-Murton

The Orioles have available:

-Tejada

So far the entire discussion has been: 'Can this combination of players create a trade?'

I am saying looking at this like these are the only teams and players available is silly. If a perfect match comes along, then great, due it straight up but it doesn't take long to determine if the match is imperfect. In this case, I don't think the Orioles are willing to take Prior due to his injury risk since the organization has many young starting pitchers and other options in Free agency. The Orioles should be interested in Hill and Murton but they need to get more then just these guys for Tejada.

The solution requires looking at other organizations needs to find a place to stick Prior.

The problem is that, for the majority of the past 3 or 4 pages, we have been discussing just Hill & Murton for Tejada. That's not equal value IMHO.

If Prior's healthy, and it's all 3, you have to look hard at the deal straight up, but not necessarily have to make it.

But your 3 way-deal only works if the Cubs consider Tejada to be of equal value to Prior + Hill + Murton. I'm not sure that they do. If they don't, and say that they need more (which will require the Birds to give up more talent, whether it be directly to the Cubs, or to a third team in order to get them to add to the Cubs' equation), they become a bad match-up as a trading partner.

It's not that I don't understand how 3 team deals work. It's a case of balancing value to each club. And that is tougher to do with the Cubs than it would be with other clubs.

[KstateBird]

Here's where we go wrong usually. I disagree with Dave a lot but this must make him pull his hair out if he's got any. A healthy Prior, Hill, and Murton for Tejada is fantasy land. Just as Santana/Aybar is a fair deal for Tejada, you can make the case that Hill + Murton is also. Murton has a history of 800+ and 900+ OPS in the minors. He was +800 this year. There's your LF for the next 5 years at a cheap price for the next 3-4 at least. I think I prefer Ervin Santana but Hill is no slouch and you could make a case for him as well. If he were an Oriole and just finished up the season the way he did, we'd have him penciled in as our #2 starter next year and in the rotation for the next 6 years. And he'd be cheap for at least 3-4 years as well. But that's not nearly enough for you. You want a healthy Prior also. The Cubs offered Prior last year for Tejada and actually wanted something thrown in extra from the O's. Now we expect a healthy Prior + Hill and Murton. AIN'T gonnna happen!

Murton is actually right at 800, and while he projects to improve on that, competent Front Offices can find 800 OPS corner OFs without giving up their best player. As I said in a previous post, by the stats, I should like him more than I do, but having watched him, I'm not sure I see him ever being more than a .750-.825 OPS guy. Nothing to spit at, but Tejada should net more if that is the centerpiece.

Rich Hill is a very good AAA pitcher, and has had limited recent success at the bigs, but like it or not, his age prevents him being considered a true prospect.

Santana has had more success at a much younger age and aybar has a high ceiling (both offensively and defensively) at a position where it is tougher to find offense.

I'm trying to think of a similar offer from our perspective. Let's say that Reimold has a good year in AA/AAA next year. Do you think the yankees would trade Jeter for Reimold + Penn. Reimold might not have quite as much value on the open market as Murton, but Penn would have more than Hill.

I'm not saying Murton/Hill is completely unfair, but I wouldn't make it and can't blame those who would cry murder over it. I certainly don't think it's equivalent to Santana/Aybar, and on its own, I'd think long and hard before I made that deal either.

We don't need a salary dump. Taking into account position, age, and consistency, Tejada should be more valuable than any of this year's free agents. When some teams looking to spend and improve strike out with Lee and Soriano, we'll see if Tejada's value rises.

[davearm]

Murton is actually right at 800, and while he projects to improve on that, competent Front Offices can find 800 OPS corner OFs without giving up their best player. As I said in a previous post, by the stats, I should like him more than I do, but having watched him, I'm not sure I see him ever being more than a .750-.825 OPS guy. Nothing to spit at, but Tejada should net more if that is the centerpiece.

Rich Hill is a very good AAA pitcher, and has had limited recent success at the bigs, but like it or not, his age prevents him being considered a true prospect.

Santana has had more success at a much younger age and aybar has a high ceiling (both offensively and defensively) at a position where it is tougher to find offense.

I'm trying to think of a similar offer from our perspective. Let's say that Reimold has a good year in AA/AAA next year. Do you think the yankees would trade Jeter for Reimold + Penn. Reimold might not have quite as much value on the open market as Murton, but Penn would have more than Hill.

I'm not saying Murton/Hill is completely unfair, but I wouldn't make it and can't blame those who would cry murder over it. I certainly don't think it's equivalent to Santana/Aybar, and on its own, I'd think long and hard before I made that deal either.

We don't need a salary dump. Taking into account position, age, and consistency, Tejada should be more valuable than any of this year's free agents. When some teams looking to spend and improve strike out with Lee and Soriano, we'll see if Tejada's value rises.

There are some real strong comps here, IMO.

Rich Hill: Erik Bedard. Hill just got done with a run comparable to Bedard's April + May of 2005. Age is similar too. MLB service time and salary puts Hill closer to Adam Loewen though.

Matt Murton: Nick Markakis. Both corner OFs, former first round picks, former college players, advanced through the minors at similar rates, posted similar minor league stats, posted similar major league stats in 2006.

Mark Prior: Daniel Cabrera. Enormous potential, enormous questions as to whether that potential will ever be realized.

So when you guys size up an offer of Prior + Murton + Hill, compare it against your own offer of DCab + Markakis + Bedard/Loewen. What player would you want back for those three? Would Miguel Tejada do it?

[davearm]

Although age is in Markakis' favor, I like Murton's chances of adding power over time a lot more. He's got a much better build for it (solid 220# vs skinny 190#).

You can argue around the edges on this one all day long, but overall I think there's pretty similar value in our three compared to your three.

What in particular did you want me to respond to? Plenty of folks here don't see much value in some of these guys, and that's fine. I'm not going to take on every one of them. Just you and SG, mainly.

[rolliefingers]

There are some real strong comps here, IMO.

Rich Hill: Erik Bedard. Hill just got done with a run comparable to Bedard's April + May of 2005. Age is similar too. MLB service time and salary puts Hill closer to Adam Loewen though.

Matt Murton: Nick Markakis. Both corner OFs, former first round picks, former college players, advanced through the minors at similar rates, posted similar minor league stats, posted similar major league stats in 2006.

Mark Prior: Daniel Cabrera. Enormous potential, enormous questions as to whether that potential will ever be realized.

So when you guys size up an offer of Prior + Murton + Hill, compare it against your own offer of DCab + Markakis + Bedard/Loewen. What player would you want back for those three? Would Miguel Tejada do it?

Not sure where you're getting these two comps, although I guess they even each other out. Hill and Bedard might be the same age, but ML experience is where Bedard kills Hill. Bedard is already a borderline ML ace.

But I also disagree with your DCab/Prior comp, because Prior's only problem is that he can't stay healthy; DCab's problem is that he can't find the strike zone. They're both question marks, but for very different reasons.

EDIT: My point, in case I wasn't clear, is that Bedard > Hill but Prior > Cabrera

[Sports Guy]

It their minor and major league careers, Markakis averages an extra base hit every 9.8 ab's and Murton averages one every 12 ab's.

Markakis is a few years younger. He is also likely the superior defensive player, although i say that without ever really seeing him play.

Murton may end up being very good but Markakis has a higher ceiling.

[KstateBird]

Murton/Markakis. Murton drafted at age 21, Markakis at age 19. Murton's first full ML season at 24, Markakis at 22. Stats are similar but the age is in Markakis's favor on this one. I could argue in Hill's favor on the age issue but in this case I think it tilts a decided edge in Markakis's favor.

Cabrera/Prior. I'll take Prior's potential over Cabrera's. The only thing is that I have a pretty good idea that Cabrera will at least have a chance to realize his potential. Again, this comes down to the medical reports. A healthy Prior is greater than a healthy Cabrera. An unhealthy Prior is not even greater than Rodrigo Lopez.

With that being said, you'll see in my previous posts that I agree with you on some level. I've been waiting all day to see you respond to some of these posts. I'm expecting more!

I think you could have made the Hill vs. Bedard comparison at this time last year, but now that Bedard has had a full season of success at the big league level, that changes things. For the same reason, I don't think Cabrera commands as much on the open market as a healthy Mark Prior.

While I fully admit to be orange-and-black biased, I think you are a little too cub-blue-eyed if you think that Murton could command the same return that Markakis would at this point (not that it would be a huge difference, but a difference just the same). Markakis only gives up 8 OPS points, but is a full 2 years younger, and didn't have the luxury of 140 MLB ABs before this season.

[davearm]

Well in response to all of the last several posts, like I said earlier, you can argue all day around the edges, but ultimately the package value is quite similar IMO.

So is anyone up for dealing DCab + Markakis + Bedard for Tejada?

[KstateBird]

No, but I don't think you have successfully shown that is an equivalent offer.

That said, I don't think the Cubs should do a Prior + Murton + Hill deal for Tejada, they might be giving up a bit munch there.

Equally, I don't feel that the O's should give up Tejada just for Murton + Hill.

I really don't see our two teams matching up well on this one.

["Clank"]

Yes, although you'd have to find a new shortstop. Izturis is Brandon Fahey.

Prior and Hill? If they're healthy a rotation of Prior, Bedard, Hill, Cabrera, and Loewen would be scary. The upside there is almost unfathomable.

Man, you are so right about the potential greatness of that rotation.

Let's sign Soriano, then make the Cub trade, sign Julio Lugo, sign Aubrey Huff to DH, re-sign Millar[platoon with Gibbons at 1B]. The BP, b/u C, and bench.....somebody help me. Pretty nice line-up to go with that "fingers-crossed" rotation-

Roberts 2B

Markakis RF

Soriano LF

Huff DH

Hernandez C

Mora 3B

Millar/Gibbons 1B

Patterson CF

Lugo SS