SI AL East Hot Stove Report

[Dark Helmet]

Yes, I'd argue that he looked like he was. Anyone with a sub .300 OBP is pretty overmatched in my book.

Reynolds had a .338 OBP, and at times he looked overmatched too. Adam Jones looked pretty overmatched against low and away sliders. All players can be made to look bad. Doesnt mean their overmatched.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yes, I'd argue that he looked like he was. Anyone with a sub .300 OBP is pretty overmatched in my book.

All 49 MLB players who had 300+ PAs and a sub 300 OBP? I don't think I'd use that phrase. I don't think BJ Upton and Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Colby Rasmus were overmatched. I think they are pretty decent MLB hitters who had some plate discipline issues.

Was Tony Armas overmatched in 1984 when he led the league with 43 homers and 123 RBI, but had a .300 OBP? I'd say he was hitting the dog snot out of the ball, he just had no plate discipline.

[joedogg9999]

Manny was on pace to hit 24 hrs over the course of a full season at 19yo. i wouldent call that overmatched

[Dark Helmet]

Manny's pace over a full season, he would have hit 21 HR and 80 RBI's. Not bad for a 19-20 year old. He earned the right to be the O's starting 3B on OD.

[Loophole]

That's sorta, kinda defensible if you hadn't actually watched the O's and were just kind of skimming over things from a 10,000 ft level. Manny did have a .294 OBP, after all. But he also slugged .450 in his age-19 season while playing at a 4.5-win pace. It would be odd (to say the least) to send him back to AAA to play a 34-year-old coming off a league-average year, and will be asking for a fairly substantial contract.

I haven't followed Sheehan much since he left BP, but he was always more of a storyteller than a real analyst. So I wouldn't take any of this too seriously.

A 4.5 win pace would've put him second on the team behind Jones. For a 19 year old, that's not overmatched, that's shocking.

[Ruzious]

Like most message boards, the posters here in general are wayyyyyyyyyyy too harsh on outside analysts. Saying Machado was overmatched was probably not the right word, but his points in general had validity - the O's were a .500ish level team that over-achieved, and if they don't significantly improve their OBP, they're most likely not getting anywhere near 93 wins next season. I'd keep Machado up, but OBP is definitely a concern for him in 2013. Just because I disagree with Sheehan on that and some other things doesn't make me feel a need to trash him.

[Il BuonO]

Frankly, "overmatched" isn't the word I'd use. That implies that he is easily fooled or can't hit a good major league pitch, and I didn't see either of those things from Machado. His OPS was exactly average for an AL 3B, and if his OBP was lower than I'd like, that is something for him to work on, not a sign that he was "overmatched," IMO. Was JJ Hardy "overmatched?"

Semantics. Is Jones overmatched on sliders that are low and away? Like SD85 says, he's 20, he's going to look like that from time to time. I don't think that stops him from improving.

[Il BuonO]

All 49 MLB players who had 300+ PAs and a sub 300 OBP? I don't think I'd use that phrase. I don't think BJ Upton and Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Colby Rasmus were overmatched. I think they are pretty decent MLB hitters who had some plate discipline issues.

Was Tony Armas overmatched in 1984 when he led the league with 43 homers and 123 RBI, but had a .300 OBP? I'd say he was hitting the dog snot out of the ball, he just had no plate discipline.

Doesn't matter. He isn't overmatched because he had a low OBP, he's inexperienced. Every hitter will look overmatched from time to time because of a certain pitch or a certain pitcher, but a younger player will look that way more so out of inexperience.

[Dark Helmet]

Like most message boards, the posters here in general are wayyyyyyyyyyy too harsh on outside analysts. Saying Machado was overmatched was probably not the right word, but his points in general had validity - the O's were a .500ish level team that over-achieved, and if they don't significantly improve their OBP, they're most likely not getting anywhere near 93 wins next season. I'd keep Machado up, but OBP is definitely a concern for him in 2013. Just because I disagree with Sheehan on that and some other things doesn't make me feel a need to trash him.

They weren't a .500ish team. They won 93 games. It doesn't matter how they got there. Not bashing you, but I hate when the national media talks like that. That's like saying the Red Sox were a 95 win team, but bad luck hit them.

[BohKnowsBmore]

They weren't a .500ish team. They won 93 games. It doesn't matter how they got there. Not bashing you, but I hate when the national media talks like that. That's like saying the Red Sox were a 95 win team, but bad luck hit them.

Amen to that.

[DrungoHazewood]

They weren't a .500ish team. They won 93 games. It doesn't matter how they got there. Not bashing you, but I hate when the national media talks like that. That's like saying the Red Sox were a 95 win team, but bad luck hit them.

Ok, but for planning purposes no GM worth anything would treat the Orioles as a 93 win team. That's silly, and leads to decisions like the Mariners trading the farm for a couple years of Erik Bedard, thinking they were on the verge of greatness despite their W/L record being better than the talent of the team. I would certainly hope Duquette is approaching '13 with the mindset they they need to add about 10 or 15 wins through acquisitions and improvements.

[gallden]

If machado was overmatched then what was adam jones at the end of the season?

[EagleOriole]

So we are supposed to keep an old, fat guy at 3B who had a .745 OPS and is certainly past his steroid enhanced prime over a young stud who had a .739 OPS and is 20 years old?

[Since'54]

Ok, but for planning purposes no GM worth anything would treat the Orioles as a 93 win team. That's silly, and leads to decisions like the Mariners trading the farm for a couple years of Erik Bedard, thinking they were on the verge of greatness despite their W/L record being better than the talent of the team. I would certainly hope Duquette is approaching '13 with the mindset they they need to add about 10 or 15 wins through acquisitions and improvements.

This is what is wrong with the stat view of baseball: It leads you to ignore the facts. To paraphrase Semi-Tough, "the Orioles won 93 games. The scoreboard done said so."

[sevastras]

Miguel Cabrera, the first triple crown winner in 45 years, looked over matched by Romo in the last at bat of the World Series. I am pretty sure that either Cabrera needs to go back to the minors to learn how to hit or Romo will never allow another hit again.

Oh, and I am pretty sure that the O's were a 93 win team, it said so in every record book that was ever published. I can't find a record book that says what someone believes they should have won instead of what they actually did win.