Josh Hamilton market update - 3 years $60-75 million

[Frobby]

In constant FY13 dollars they have. $85M in 1998 is the equivalent of $120M today. In real terms the Oriole payroll has shrunk by 30%, give or take, over the past 15 years.

And I think baseball inflation has outstripped real inflation over that timeframe.

I think that is irrelevant to the point Tony was making, though. He was talking about what our payroll was when ticket prices were lower, so he's not factoring in inflation. So the truth is, we have never had a $100 mm payroll.

[harp6]

The Orioles have never had a $100 million payroll.

I find it difficult to find final payroll numbers for a team for the entire year. Maybe someone out there knows where we can find that information.

For instance, the O's had an opening day salary in 2007 of $93,500,000. Very close to $100,000,000. As the season goes on players get added and subtracted with trades, call-ups, etc. So how much did they pay all the players that got called up that season, etc. How much was removed because of trades, etc? The opening day salary of the O's this season was about $81,500,000. SI.com and foxsports has the salary as $98,000,000, but they list the entire Randy Wolf salary with the O's, but the O's did not pay all of that salary. The O's did pay partial salaries to players that get called up that are not part of that original 81,500,000.

But regardless of whether the salary has ever reached 100,000,000 or not, I agree with Tony. The salary has approached that mark many times. Also if you look at number comparisons. The O's opening day salary in 1998 was the highest that year at $78,000,000. The average ball player made about $1,400,000 a year in 1998. Now the average ball player makes about $3,400,000 a year. Some of that is the result of big spending by the wealthy clubs, but a lot of that is the result of more money available across the board. The O's salaries have remained very flat for the last 15 years. But the fact is, the O's spending has remained around that same salary that it was back in 1998. Part of that is a result of not wanting to pay the big players to come to a team that is not going to compete. But now that the O's have the chance to compete, it is time to wisely spend to help this team remain competitive. Some say that is unwise to spend on any big free agent, but most of the competitive teams do take occasional risk for a big free agent and see excellent results. So if the O's want to stay competitive, it may be helpful to open the salary some to bring in a couple of big bats or top starters.

[Mayor McCheese]

That doesn't dispute what I said, and it certainly doesn't support the statement that they had payrolls over $100 million in the late 90s.

Depends how you set your calculator... $93MM rounds to either $100MM or $90MM but I am not arguing the point of late 90s payroll... shoot even the Os were top in payroll back then... but over the past decade the O's payroll has fluctuated +/-$40MM

[Tony-OH]

That doesn't dispute what I said, and it certainly doesn't support the statement that they had payrolls over $100 million in the late 90s.

What I meant was the Orioles could afford a payroll equivalent in 2012 dollars to around $100 million back in the late 90s without all the additional revenue streams the Orioles now have at their disposal yet their payrolls have not reflected that change. Where is that money going?

Peter Angelos bought the Orioles for $173M in 1993.

Forbes magazine valued the club at $460M in March, 2012.

Meanwhile since 2000, our payroll has not improved with the value of Angelos' franchise:

2012: $ 84,102,333

2011: $ 86,942,583

2010: $ 73,812,500

2009: $ 67,101,666

2008: $ 67,196,246

2007: $ 93,554,808

2006: $ 72,585,582

2005: $ 73,914,333

2004: $ 51,623,333

2003: $ 73,877,500

2002: $ 60,493,487

2001: $ 74,279,540

2000: $ 83,100,000

[TonySoprano]

I find it difficult to find final payroll numbers for a team for the entire year. Maybe someone out there knows where we can find that information.

For instance, the O's had an opening day salary in 2007 of $93,500,000. Very close to $100,000,000. As the season goes on players get added and subtracted with trades, call-ups, etc. So how much did they pay all the players that got called up that season, etc. How much was removed because of trades, etc? The opening day salary of the O's this season was about $81,500,000. SI.com and foxsports has the salary as $98,000,000, but they list the entire Randy Wolf salary with the O's, but the O's did not pay all of that salary. The O's did pay partial salaries to players that get called up that are not part of that original 81,500,000.

But regardless of whether the salary has ever reached 100,000,000 or not, I agree with Tony. The salary has approached that mark many times. Also if you look at number comparisons. The O's opening day salary in 1998 was the highest that year at $78,000,000. The average ball player made about $1,400,000 a year in 1998. Now the average ball player makes about $3,400,000 a year. Some of that is the result of big spending by the wealthy clubs, but a lot of that is the result of more money available across the board. The O's salaries have remained very flat for the last 15 years. But the fact is, the O's spending has remained around that same salary that it was back in 1998. Part of that is a result of not wanting to pay the big players to come to a team that is not going to compete. But now that the O's have the chance to compete, it is time to wisely spend to help this team remain competitive. Some say that is unwise to spend on any big free agent, but most of the competitive teams do take occasional risk for a big free agent and see excellent results. So if the O's want to stay competitive, it may be helpful to open the salary some to bring in a couple of big bats or top starters.

No, we have not approached $100M many times. The closest was the $93M in 2007, and in second place was $85M in 2011. Angelos spent less on payroll in 2008 & 2009 than he did 10 years earlier in 1998. The $70M he spent on 1998 payroll, tops in baseball, would rank 25th in 2012. Sure, there were seven years where he kept payroll near the top, but for the last dozen years, the average is 17th in MLB.

yr-payroll-mlb rank

1994	$37,669,769	91995	$40,835,519	41996	$48,726,832	21997	$54,871,399	21998	$70,408,134 	11999	$70,818,363 	82000	$83,141,198 	32001	$74,279,540 	122002	$60,493,487 	162003	$73,877,500 	132004	$51,623,333 	202005	$73,914,333 	142006	$72,585,582 	152007	$93,554,808 	102008	$67,196,246 	222009	$67,101,666 	232010	$81,612,500 	172011	$85,304,038 	182012	$81,428,499 	19

[El Gordo]

What I meant was the Orioles could afford a payroll equivalent in 2012 dollars to around $100 million back in the late 90s without all the additional revenue streams the Orioles now have at their disposal yet their payrolls have not reflected that change. Where is that money going?

Peter Angelos bought the Orioles for $173M in 1993.

Forbes magazine valued the club at $460M in March, 2012.

Meanwhile since 2000, our payroll has not improved with the value of Angelos' franchise:

2012: $ 84,102,333

2011: $ 86,942,583

2010: $ 73,812,500

2009: $ 67,101,666

2008: $ 67,196,246

2007: $ 93,554,808

2006: $ 72,585,582

2005: $ 73,914,333

2004: $ 51,623,333

2003: $ 73,877,500

2002: $ 60,493,487

2001: $ 74,279,540

2000: $ 83,100,000

According to one inflaction calculator the value of the 2000 payrole would come to $111,628,587.11 in today's dollars.

[srh523]

According to one inflaction calculator the value of the 2000 payrole would come to $111,628,587.11 in today's dollars.

and if they would take the payroll to that total they should be able to easily afford the pieces that are needed....

They could add Laroche and Swisher and still be under that amount. Probably even throw in Saunders and keep all the prospects in tact.

[sangar]

According to one inflaction calculator the value of the 2000 payrole would come to $111,628,587.11 in today's dollars.

Using CPI for October, the 2000 payroll would be 110,528,578. Either way you look at it, the Orioles should be able to increase payroll significantly, ceteris paribus.

[TradeAngelos]

Using CPI for October, the 2000 payroll would be 110,528,578. Either way you look at it, the Orioles should be able to increase payroll significantly, ceteris paribus.

And even these numbers are way off in relation to "MLB" inflation, because the average salary has doubled since 1999.

So that $72 million we spent in 1999, is really like $144 million in 2012 in MLB dollars.

[LookinUp]

And even these numbers are way off in relation to "MLB" inflation, because the average salary has doubled since 1999.

So that $72 million we spent in 1999, is really like $144 million in 2012 in MLB dollars.

Inflation isn't the only input. Attendance/concession matters, I'd think, and we might technically have a drop in TV revenue if MASN is viewed as a separate company (total speculation by me). I can't stand PA, but I think there's more to the story than straight inflation.

[Mayor McCheese]

If we can pay Sammy Sosa $17MM, we can pay $20MM+ for Hamilton. Would it be best for the Os to invest in Hamilton, some say yes... some say no...but IMO it would not hurt us... you are getting an MVP type caliber player added to future stars of Jones, Matty, Muchado, etc.

but what do i know..

[harp6]

No, we have not approached $100M many times. The closest was the $93M in 2007, and in second place was $85M in 2011. Angelos spent less on payroll in 2008 & 2009 than he did 10 years earlier in 1998. The $70M he spent on 1998 payroll, tops in baseball, would rank 25th in 2012. Sure, there were seven years where he kept payroll near the top, but for the last dozen years, the average is 17th in MLB.

yr-payroll-mlb rank

1994	$37,669,769	91995	$40,835,519	41996	$48,726,832	21997	$54,871,399	21998	$70,408,134 	11999	$70,818,363 	82000	$83,141,198 	32001	$74,279,540 	122002	$60,493,487 	162003	$73,877,500 	132004	$51,623,333 	202005	$73,914,333 	142006	$72,585,582 	152007	$93,554,808 	102008	$67,196,246 	222009	$67,101,666 	232010	$81,612,500 	172011	$85,304,038 	182012	$81,428,499 	19

But as I mentioned earlier, this data is misleading because these are opening day salaries of the players on the opening day active roster and DL. The salaries that were listed on some sites at the end of the year have us at a payroll that is higher because they include all of Wolf's and Saunder's salaries and the O's did not pay that. The 81,428,499 does not include the partial salaries of Wolf, Saunders, Mclouth, Gonzalez, and all the other players that were signed during the season or brought up from our system. At the same time, I don't think that there is any year that would have still been over 100,000,000 with all the additional pickups.

So my question is, does anyone know where the sites are that give the actual salary numbers, not the opening day salaries. I am just curious. When I search, I was usually finding just opening day salaries.

[DrungoHazewood]

Inflation isn't the only input. Attendance/concession matters, I'd think, and we might technically have a drop in TV revenue if MASN is viewed as a separate company (total speculation by me). I can't stand PA, but I think there's more to the story than straight inflation.

But we know that real TV revenues are up, probably a lot. Any claims of MASN being an independent entity from the Orioles is a half-truth, at best.

In any case, if the O's revenues were flat over the past 15 years while industry revenues have roughly doubled that would be a horrible indictment of Angelos' business practices and marketing. He has two choices here: Admit that he and the other shareholders are pocketing large amounts of money, or that his franchise is not nearly as well run as the other 29.

[DrungoHazewood]

But as I mentioned earlier, this data is misleading because these are opening day salaries of the players on the opening day active roster and DL. The salaries that were listed on some sites at the end of the year have us at a payroll that is higher because they include all of Wolf's and Saunder's salaries and the O's did not pay that. The 81,428,499 does not include the partial salaries of Wolf, Saunders, Mclouth, Gonzalez, and all the other players that were signed during the season or brought up from our system. At the same time, I don't think that there is any year that would have still been over 100,000,000 with all the additional pickups.

So my question is, does anyone know where the sites are that give the actual salary numbers, not the opening day salaries. I am just curious. When I search, I was usually finding just opening day salaries.

I think you may be focusing on a side issue. Over a number of years a snapshot of payroll at any given point in the season should be a reasonable reference to compare different clubs.

[DrungoHazewood]

If we can pay Sammy Sosa $17MM, we can pay $20MM+ for Hamilton.

There is a substantial difference between paying part of Sosa's last $17M left on his deal (remember, the Cubs kicked in some cash), and signing Hamilton over 3-6 years for probably $100M+.