Jair Jurrjens agrees to deal with Orioles

[hendu]

Jurrjen's stats for 2012 in a small sample were abysmal. That K-Rate...wow. That HR rate...wow.

That said, if he sucks...there's a myriad of guys available on the 40 man roster to start every 5th day. If it's not Jurrjens, it's Matusz, or Arrieta, or Steve Johnson, or Wada, or Tommy Hunter.

I think the O's could get by with that and make another Saunders-like move around the deadline if Jurrjens falters, and the O's are still in the race.

Or Britton.

I'm happy with the move. I was awoken at 6AM this morning with the text, and I immediately went to read the 8 page thread barely able to see from the brightness of my phone.

[Frobby]

I'm happy with the move. I was awoken at 6AM this morning with the text, and I immediately went to read the 8 page thread barely able to see from the brightness of my phone.

Whatever else one thinks of the move, it's the most interesting thing the Orioles have done in the last six weeks. At least there's something real to discuss, instead of endless hypothetical discussions. So, there's that.

[isestrex]

Forget that, I have to learn to pronounce it!

Jair - G-air

Jurrjens - Jur (like the first part of Jury) jens (soft J like pronouncing Genesis)

[DrungoHazewood]

Jurrjen's stats for 2012 in a small sample were abysmal. That K-Rate...wow. That HR rate...wow.

In 2011 Brian Matusz pitched almost the same number of innings and allowed about twice as many homers. Of course that was the highest HR rate in history (min 40 innings).

[Orange]

I agree with DrungoHazewood... The fact that we could get him for $1.5M shows that the industry as a whole believed that he was a very high risk to produce absolutely nothing of value. The thing that gives me hope is that since he lasted this long we must have had plenty of time to do a lot of film study on the guy... If we are willing to take the plunge then it can be reasonably assumed that Peterson sees something he can work with. You gotta figure that Peterson gave the green light and that gives me hope.

[Pruke]

I agree with DrungoHazewood... The fact that we could get him for $1.5M shows that the industry as a whole believed that he was a very high risk to produce absolutely nothing of value. The thing that gives me hope is that since he lasted this long we must have had plenty of time to do a lot of film study on the guy... If we are willing to take the plunge then it can be reasonably assumed that Peterson sees something he can work with. You gotta figure that Peterson gave the green light and that gives me hope.

It's 1.5MM at a minimum - incentives can drive that up quite a bit.

[Frobby]

It's 1.5MM at a minimum - incentives can drive that up quite a bit.

It will be interesting to hear the details on the incentives, to see how realistic it is that he could attain them.

[Tony-OH]

The best part of getting into a thread when it's already at ten pages is that all the good points have already been made!

I see this signing as a low-risk, high reward type of signing but I'm in the camp that doesn't expect much from Jurrjens. I was against trading for him last year because of poor peripherals, falling velocity and because the Braves seemed so intent on trading him after his 2011 year when he outperformed every sabermetric known to mankind that evaluates a pitcher's projected success.

Right now the rotation has one spot up for grabs unless an injury or implosion occurs this spring. Hammel, Chen, Tillman, and Gonzalez are in the rotation barring those events which leaves Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Steve Johnson, Clark, MacFarland and now Jurrjens competing for that last spot. I'm still very high on Britton as a starter, but the signing of a guy like Joe Saunders, who will most likely cost around $6-7 million a year for at least two years would mean Britton would have no shot at the rotation unless an injury occurred this spring to one of the five. The Jurrjens signing does not preclude Britton from making the rotation since he has an option remaining and could be sent to Norfolk until he proves he's back to his previous form.

To me Jurrjens is nothing more than an insurance policy for rotation depth. If Petersen is able to work some magic on him and the Orioles catch some more of the Gonzalez-type magic then most fans will be singing the praises of DD once again.

[TonySoprano]

Why can't the Orioles afford a "big money guy"?

I have to assume this is a rhetorical question because we know the answer why not .

[bradyrocks]

It's 1.5MM at a minimum - incentives can drive that up quite a bit.

Well hes not getting the incentives unless hes pitching well, at which point he will be worth it. If not he will sit on 1.5mil in the minors. We arent going to let someone struggle their way to a 4mil salary when we have the depth that we do.

[jrobb21613]

Id prefer Saunders to Jair, but I dont want either. I wish the O's got to play against Jair. Its as if people didn't watch him while his ERA etc were good...if you just watch the guys pitch, there isnt much to like. There is zero chance he reaches his incentives, I hope he tears up AAA for a spell and we're able to trade him for a low-A prospect with a high ceiling. At that point you can sell his AAA numbers and his name. He cant pitch in this division. No chance.

The O's did play againt Jair and if my memory serves me right he pitched a CG 1hit shutout.

[weams]

The Major League contract is pretty meaningless.. it just means he gets to keep that salary if he's optioned. At least I think that's how it works.

It's a depth signing and someone for Peterson to tinker with. Nothing much else to see here, really. Could pan out, might not. If he doesn't earn a spot out of ST, he'll be in AAA.

And he takes up a 40 man roster spot.

[Crazysilver03]

And he takes up a 40 man roster spot.

Ah.. yes, good point. But would still rather have Jair on there than Exposito. And if he's not pitching well, he could still slip through waivers with a relatively hefty salary for someone not pitching well.

That was something I was thinking about as well, that the Orioles could DFA him and he would have to stay with the organization to get the money and he would be off the roster, though I doubt they take that approach. I think that extra year of service time is worth NOT taking him off the 40 man roster though because I highly doubt he is the worst player on the roster at any point in time. Heck, even if he spends the whole year in Norfolk working with Peterson, it ends up being a 2/$3M deal when it is all said and done, not bad at all.

[hendu]

Ah.. yes, good point. But would still rather have Jair on there than Exposito. And if he's not pitching well, he could still slip through waivers with a relatively hefty salary for someone not pitching well.

That really sucks that Exposito might get moved off the 40 man. I didn't get him to sign my 40 man from last year team ball, even though I probably could have if I tried hard enough. It's already going to be difficult enough to hope that Paulino is up with the Mariners when they make their trip to Baltimore.

[Can_of_corn]

The best part of getting into a thread when it's already at ten pages is that all the good points have already been made!

Actually Tony, I think folks missed an interesting point. Some folks in this thread were harping on his successful 2011 campaign but when you look at his splits:

First half

110 innings, 1.066 WHIP 5 HR 2.6 SO/BB 585 OPS against

Second half

41.9 innings, 1.645 WHIP 9 HR 1.32 SO/BB 947 OPS against

He has performed poorly for 1.5 seasons now.

Honestly I think the O's just spent 1.5 million on a #4-5 starter for Norfolk. I didn't even expect Jurrjens to get a major league deal this offseason.

I think there is enough chaff on the 40 man that adding him won't weaken the club and I don't think signing him is going to keep them from any other moves, so I can't feel strongly against it.