Baseball America will name Cardinals #1 minor league system

[Migrant Redbird]

unofficial ranking

When Baseball America?s 2013 Prospect Handbook reaches shelves early next month, the Cardinals will be unveiled as the annual publication's No. 1 minor-league system in a ranking of all 30 clubs? minor-league talent through mid-December, editors at the magazine confirmed. It is expected that the Cardinals also will hold that position in March when the trade magazine publishes its updated rankings for the 2013 season.

It hasn't always been that way, even when the Cards were one of the more successful winning teams in baseball.

If so, it will be the first time since Baseball America began ranking organizations in 1984 that the Cardinals will have earned the No. 1 spot. It is a significant turnaround for a club that was ranked 30th in minor-league talent in 2002 and 2005.

"People don't remember how they had some tough drafts and a non-existent international program," said Jim Callis, an executive at Baseball America. "It was a bad trend. I don?t think people realized how bad it was because of the success at the major-league level. That kind of masked it. It hid how bad the underpinnings were."

... The rise comes eight seasons after the Cardinals ranked 30th and represents a steady climb up from a decade spent in the lower third of baseball. From 2000 through 2007, the Cardinals highest rank was 21.

That was the second half of the Walt Jocketty decade (1995-2007).

... And yet in the eight seasons since being No. 30 the Cardinals have made strides at the minor-league level while winning two World Series and appearing in four NL championship series.

The rankings "brought a focus to an area we had to upgrade," Mozeliak said. "We knew that was necessary to create a sustainable model for major-league success. If our farm system was ranked in the lower (third), it wasn't going to work like we needed it to. Our goal became to invest heavily in our pipeline but to still make the right decisions at the major-league level to maintain a competitive club. Our farm system had to help us do that."

Former Cardinals executive Jeff Luhnow, who now is the general manager in Houston, oversaw a transformation that led to this year's ranking. Starting with the 2005 draft, Luhnow directed the team's amateur scouting and for a couple years he was in charge of development as farm director. Luhnow remained involved in player procurement even as the Cardinals fired general manager Walt Jocketty and promoted Mozeliak with the hope he could heal fissures that had developed between the major- and minor-leagues operations. After the club left the Dominican Republic in 2003, Luhnow reestablished the team's presence in Latin America. From 2005 to 2011, no team in the majors had as many drafted players contribute at the major-league level as the Cardinals.

They have not had a pick higher than 13th overall since 1999.

Their overall ranking by Baseball America followed the improvement, inching to 16th in 2008, eighth in 2009 and then 10th entering last season.

What caused the Cardinals to vault to No. 1 this season is the imminent arrival of the type of prospects the team had been lacking -- the impact prospect.

John Sickels: St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2013

Rich and deep:

1) Oscar Taveras, OF, Grade A

2) Shelby Miller, RHP, Grade A

3) Carlos Martinez, RHP, Grade A-

4) Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, Grade B+

5) Michael Wacha, RHP, Grade B+

6) Kolten Wong, 2B, Grade B

7) Matt Adams, 1B, Grade B

8) Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade B-

9) Anthony Garcia, OF, Grade B-

10) Carson Kelly, 3B, Grade B-

11) Patrick Wisdom, 3B, Grade B-

12) Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Grade B-

13) Greg Garcia, 2B-SS, Grade C+

14) Seth Maness, RHP, Grade C+

15) John Gast, LHP, Grade C+

16) Starlin Rodriguez, 2B, Grade C+

17) Ryan Jackson, SS, Grade C+

18) Maikel Cleto, RHP, Grade C+

19) Tyler Lyons, LHP, Grade C+:

20) Breyvic Valera, INF, Grade C+

"I look for elite talent," Callis explained. "I think you do win with stars. I don't think you can only win with being solid everywhere but not having a superstar. I look for balance in the system. I look for how advanced the talent is through the system. (With the Cardinals) you?re looking at an extremely talented farm system with players like Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal who are close to being big-league ready or already are."

Callis pointed to the Cardinals 2012 draft as an example of the organization's depth. The Cards had five picks in the first 59. Yet, Callis noted, only one of the picks was able to crack the top seven prospects (see chart).

"One of the things in this time period is that we have invest heavily in the draft, taking advantage of extra picks at the time, and improving what we do in the international market," Mozeliak said. "It really is a great credit to our scouting, our international staff, and the player development group that turns what scouts give them into prospects."

The Cardinals' previous high in Baseball America was No. 5, in 1990.

What the on-paper ranking means for the on-field product varies. A year ago, Washington, buoyed by eventual National League Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper, ranked No. 1, and the Nationals earned a playoff berth. Since 2000, only one franchise has been ranked No. 1 overall in the handbook and not had a subsequent playoff appearance within five seasons. The Texas Rangers entered 2009 ranked No. 1 and have appeared in three consecutive postseasons and won two American League pennants.

Three times the Tampa Bay Rays have been ranked No. 1 in the handbook, and their farm system has been pivotal to their ability to compete in the money-logged American League East.

The Cardinals have been at the other end of the spectrum. A year after the 30th overall ranking in 2005, the Cardinals leaned on recent prospects like Adam Wainwright, Anthony Reyes, and others to win the 2006 World Series. In 2010, Baseball America ranked the Cardinals? farm-system 29th. A year later, Allen Craig caught the final out of the 2011 World Series championship as one of seven homegrown players on the field.

It was the organizational conflict with Luhnow that cost Jocketty his job. When DeWitt forced Jocketty to resign in 2007, he didn't plan to install John Mozeliak as Jocketty's replacement, though he did guarantee Mozeliak he'd retain his job as assistant GM. The Cards looked high and low for a new GM. The most highly regarded candidate decided not to interview, apparently feeling that taking a job where Luhnow, Mozeliak, and La Russa were already entrenched with the ownership was not a prescription for success. Eventually, with all the other possibilities eliminated, DeWitt removed the "acting" from Mozeliak's title. At the time, I referred to Mozeliak as "Jocketty-Lite".

A lot of both Jocketty's and Mozeliak's success can be attributed to the serendipity of drafting Pujols in the 13th round of the 1999 draft. Jocketty also had some fortunate acquisitions. It was Pat Hentgen, acquired in a November trade, who recommended the Cards sign Mike Matheny as a free agent in December 1999. It was Matheny who recommended the Cards trade for Steve Kline in 2001 and sign Chris Carpenter as a free agent in 2002.

[Frobby]

Using the system that our poster skanar developed to convert Sickels' player ratings for each team into numbers, he'd also rank the Cardinals number 1. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/128520-John-Sickels-Orioles-Top-20?p=3023258#post3023258

The Cardinals have been one of the best overall organizations in baseball for a long time.

[skanar]

Using the system that our poster skanar developed to convert Sickels' player ratings for each team into numbers, he'd also rank the Cardinals number 1. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/128520-John-Sickels-Orioles-Top-20?p=3023258#post3023258

The Cardinals have been one of the best overall organizations in baseball for a long time.

Beat me to it, Frobby. It's worth noting that the top three systems this year (St Louis, Seattle, and Tampa) are all very close, and the next three (Texas, Houston, and Pittsburgh) aren't far behind. For comparison, here are the top 5s in the Sickels/skanar point system for 2012 and 2011:

2013:

1. St Louis Cardinals 256

2. Seattle Mariners 245

3. Tampa Bay Rays 243

4. Texas Rangers 234

5. Houston Astros 233

6. Pittsburgh Pirates 232

2012:

1. San Diego 290

2. Toronto 288

3. St Louis 264

4. Texas 233

5. Atlanta 227

6. Tampa 212

2011

1. Kansas City 341

2. Tampa 278

3. Atlanta 254

4. Toronto 253

5. Cleveland 223

6. New York AL 196

The gap between 1st and 6th this year is 23 points, which is about 1 B+ prospect - and it's a lot less than the gap between those two spots in past years.

Also, Tampa was #2 in 2010, #5 in 2009, and #1 in 2008. So they've been in the top 6 for six straight years.

[Crazysilver03]

I didn't realize Houston added so many prospects. I thought they were mainly quantity over quality.

[skanar]

I didn't realize Houston added so many prospects. I thought they were mainly quantity over quality.

Cosart and Singleton were the two gems that they picked up from Philly (for Hunter Pence, no less). They've also had some improvements by guys in the system and have graduated very few players recently.

Here's how their Sickels A and B guys were obtained:

1. Carlos Correa, A-: 1st round 2012

2. Jonathan Singleton, B+: Trade from PHI (Pence)

3. George Springer, B+: 1st round 2011

4. Jarred Cosart, B: Trade from PHI (Pence)

5. Lance McCullers, B: 1st round 2012

6. Delino DeShields, B: 1st round 2010

7. Mike Foltynewicz, B: 1st round 2010

8. Nick Tropeano, B: 5th round 2011

9. Rio Ruiz, B-: 4th round 2012

10. Domingo Santana, B-: Trade from PHI (Pence)

11. Jonathan Villar, B-: Trade from PHI (Oswalt)

12. Nolan Fontana, B-: 2nd round 2012

13. Asher Wojciechowski, B-: Trade from TOR (10-player deal)

14. Robbie Grossman, B-: Trade from PIT (Wandy Rodriguez)

[Frobby]

Beat me to it, Frobby. It's worth noting that the top three systems this year (St Louis, Seattle, and Tampa) are all very close, and the next three (Texas, Houston, and Pittsburgh) aren't far behind. For comparison, here are the top 5s in the Sickels/skanar point system for 2012 and 2011:

2013:

1. St Louis Cardinals 256

2. Seattle Mariners 245

3. Tampa Bay Rays 243

4. Texas Rangers 234

5. Houston Astros 233

6. Pittsburgh Pirates 232

2012:

1. San Diego 290

2. Toronto 288

3. St Louis 264

4. Texas 233

5. Atlanta 227

6. Tampa 212

2011

1. Kansas City 341

2. Tampa 278

3. Atlanta 254

4. Toronto 253

5. Cleveland 223

6. New York AL 196

The gap between 1st and 6th this year is 23 points, which is about 1 B+ prospect - and it's a lot less than the gap between those two spots in past years.

Also, Tampa was #2 in 2010, #5 in 2009, and #1 in 2008. So they've been in the top 6 for six straight years.

Looking at KC's point total from 2011, you'd think they'd be a good team by now. Maybe this year....

[skanar]

Looking at KC's point total from 2011, you'd think they'd be a good team by now. Maybe this year....

Yes, they had an incredible system that year. Only one other team has crossed the 300-point barrier (admittedly, a doubly-arbitrary threshold) since I started tracking in 2008: Tampa, with 307 points in 2008.

There are two major lessons to be drawn from KC 2011, I think:

1) Patience. The Royals that year had 3 A prospects and 5 B+ prospects, a massive number. But of those, some are still in the minors just due to age and experience (ie, not because they've started to suck). Even top prospects can take some time to become MLB impact players. The Royals just traded two of those top guys from 2011 (Myers and Odorizzi) to Tampa to go into win-now mode, and I think that might have been premature.

2) Pitching. The Royals prospects from that spectacular group that have NOT succeeded have all been pitchers. A team must have good pitching to be successful; even if Moustakas and Hosmer had lived up to their lofty expectations right away, the Royals still wouldn't have been good. All 5 of those B+ grades went to pitchers, and none has had even partial MLB success.