TT: The Orioles projected payroll is 4th in the AL East

[Stotle]

To my knowledge, without looking into it too much, The Giants (winners of 2 of the last 3 WS) have not signed a single "premiere" free agent....and this playing in the Dodgers division.

Eh, the Giants have been essentially a mid-80s to low-90s win talent base, and that has been enough considering the competition in their division. The unfortunate truth is Baltimore probably (not definite, but probable) needs to have a higher baseline of talent coming out of the AL East.

Also, the Giants did:

1. Give Lincecum 2 years/40.5MM last year

2. Give Cain 6/127 MM last year

3. Traded for Pence (who was over $10MM annual) and gave him another 8-figures this offseason (to avoid arb).

Posey is going to get a very large deal this year, as well.

Those four are all probably among the top WAR dudes for the Giants this year.

[Stotle]

Very true. But unfortunately we didn't draft like Tampa for a decade straight. Having the top pick every year sure helped them. Lets see what happens when they don't pick so high in the draft. I would think their system is starting to decline from what it was 5 years ago, but I don't know that as fact.

Tampa is fine. Definite Top 10 system (for me), and some would argue Top 5.

[Dipper9]

Eh, the Giants have been essentially a mid-80s to low-90s win talent base, and that has been enough considering the competition in their division. The unfortunate truth is Baltimore probably (not definite, but probable) needs to have a higher baseline of talent coming out of the AL East.

Also, the Giants did:

1. Give Lincecum 2 years/40.5MM last year

2. Give Cain 6/127 MM last year

3. Traded for Pence (who was over $10MM annual) and gave him another 8-figures this offseason (to avoid arb).

Posey is going to get a very large deal this year, as well.

Those four are all probably among the top WAR dudes for the Giants this year.

Right, and the Orioles sign their own as well:

Roberts ( a bust but still got $40 million)

Kakes

Jones

Hardy (trade and signed a 3 year extension)

I guess my point is I'd rather develop our own and sign our own to large extensions then to sign premiere free agents who are typically being paid for past performance and not living up to the current contract they sign.

[MurphDogg]

Who really knows if they helped or hurt....I guess my point is that those contracts did not kill them, they were still able to add talent through the draft, trades, whatever to get to the WS.

I know whether it helped or hurt them. I think you probably do too.

[El Gordo]

Perhaps, but every high priced player carries some kind of inherent risk. The Orioles are by nature a risk adverse team and as long as they remain that way, you will not see them sign an impact high priced free agent while Angelos owns the team.

This is probably true, but why is it so important? Big ticket FA are a thing of the past IMO. Most often you are paying for past production instead of the future production. You won't see TB sign a high priced FA either. More and more teams are extending young players so that when they become FA they are at the end of their prime. I think the signing of Hamiulton was a big mistake for LAA and would have been a disaster for the O's. LAA needs to challenge the LAD for their market so maybe they have to take a long term bath for a short term gain, but the O's aren't in the same boat. Hamilton might be good for 2-3 years but after that he'd be an albatross IMO. If PA is as cheap/cautious/meddling whatever as so many seem to think, why would a guy as smart as Buck be willing to extend as long as he did in order to work for him?

[Tony-OH]

I agree with everything here. But I'll also add making the playoffs in baseball is hard. Even with premium talent, the Angels were on the outside looking in. Tampa won 90 games and came in 3rd place. Is that a bad season? Should they be disappointed because their management didn't spend money on premium free agents? If the Orioles win 85-90 games and don't make the playoffs, I won't be disappointed, and I won't think its a step backwards. Now, if the pitching poops the bed and our offense stinks up the joint, then we can look back and maybe say the Orioles should have done more. But its a two edged sword. IF the Orioles stink and miss the playoffs, that would beg the question...would Hamilton have made any difference if the young pitching steps back? Probably not. Its all about pitching and defense, and us having a BAD year in 2013 does not depend on Hamiton and Greinke. It depends on the guys already here. Now, if we win 90 and miss the playoffs by 3 games like Tampa did, then and only then can we say Hamilton and Greinke would have made the difference. But even saying that, I wouldn't be disappointed.

I can understand this line of thinking by a lot of fans, afterall, we've been conditioned to have very low expectations. Some of you have been conditioned to believe the Orioles can not afford a Hamilton or Greinke and in fact, you can point to the free agency failures all over the place. I didn't believe the Orioles needed Greinke since their strength lies in their young pitching. I can see a Bundy or Gausman being a Greinke in a year or two. However, we don't have any Hamilton's in the system just like we didn't have any Tiexiera's or Fielder's. Each year a premium bat hits the market and the Orioles have no interest, yet their are no pipe line of impact hitters in their system. Why, because the Orioles are not going to pay those kinds of salaries. Not because they can't afford to, but because Angelos doesn't want to.

What some of you fail to understand that this is still an organization that doesn't buy new pitching machines or real video equipment for their minor league clubs. Why? Because this organization doesn't like to spend money on anything other than what they have to spend. Maybe this will change with Duquette. Maybe he will be able to spend many on facilities and equipment for their minor leaguers?

The facts are that MASN was supposed to be a game changer for the Orioles and it has not been. I know a lot of you have been conditioned to believe that the Orioles must be frugal to contend, and I congratulate Mr. Angelos and the Orioles for convincing so many that this is the truth, but the truth is, no one can convince me that Detroit can afford a $150 million payroll and the Orioles can only afford a $90 million payroll.

No one is going to come out and say it, but the bottom line for Angelos is profit. I think by his very nature he believes that MASN and the Orioles are separate entities and that both need to make profits. He sees no reason to spend extra if MASN is extremely profitable because he doesn't see one affecting the other. Most teams sign large TV contracts or get their own regional sports network and their teams see a windfall in new contract signings and payroll increases. The Orioles get more promises "that this time it will literally come true" while the payroll and the Orioles actions show no change in how they operate.

[Tony-OH]

This is probably true, but why is it so important? Big ticket FA are a thing of the past IMO. Most often you are paying for past production instead of the future production. You won't see TB sign a high priced FA either. More and more teams are extending young players so that when they become FA they are at the end of their prime. I think the signing of Hamiulton was a big mistake for LAA and would have been a disaster for the O's. LAA needs to challenge the LAD for their market so maybe they have to take a long term bath for a short term gain, but the O's aren't in the same boat. Hamilton might be good for 2-3 years but after that he'd be an albatross IMO. If PA is as cheap/cautious/meddling whatever as so many seem to think, why would a guy as smart as Buck be willing to extend as long as he did in order to work for him?

Would you honestly be upset if the Orioles made the playoffs the next 2-3 years and then had a few years down afterwards? Can you imagine what three years straight of playoff caliber baseball from this team would do to fan interest?

[WEAVERMAN]

According to Baseball Reference.com, the Orioles projected payroll is $88.4 million for this upcoming season which puts them 4th in the AL East and 8th in the American League.

AL East projected payrolls in 2013:

NYY $208.6M

BOS $151.4M

TOR $114.8M

BAL $88.4M

TBR $55.0M

Dan Duquette said he wanted to add a MOO and some OBP into his lineup this offseason but he was unwilling to get involved with the top free agent hitters nor willing to give up the high impact young players it would have taken to get a true impact offensive player.

This begs several questions. Can Duquette afford to be frugal and unwilling to take on risk? Can the Orioles catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row? Will the starting pitching repeat their success of the second half? Can the bullpen repeat their near perfect run last year? Can the Orioles repeat their record setting one-run game magic? Can the Orioles basically stand pat and repeat as contenders while the other teams in the AL East made major moves to upgrade their roster? Is Duquette's hands tied by ownership that refuses to use their MASN money to significantly improve the payroll to AL East standards? How can Detroit and Toronto afford $150 and $114 million payrolls yet the Orioles still stand at a frugal $88 million?

The excuse for Angelos and the Orioles has always been we're not one or two players away so we're not going to spend until that happens. Well, the Orioles were contenders last year and they are basically a MOO or top of the rotation guy away from being a contender on paper again. Yet, it appears Duquette is happy with trying to find the next Nate McLouth and Miguel Gonzalez rather than bringing in the impact talent the Orioles truly needed.

Maybe he will be right. Maybe Bundy and Gausman will end up our number one and two starters for years to come and maybe Machado will become an impact player. Maybe Schoop will see his power develop and become another star for the Orioles. Perhaps Tillman will continue to develop and prove to everyone that he truly did turn the corner and can be a top of the rotation kind of guy. Maybe Arrieta and Britton will harness their stuff and Matusz will become a lights out left-handed reliever. Maybe Reimold will stay healthy and produce like he was at the beginning of last season all season.

All or some of this could happen and honestly, they are all real possibilities, but until the Orioles prove they are willing to acquire impact talent, they are going to be at the mercy of their drafting and development. And although things are looking brighter in that department, I'm not sure any team can fully expect to compete in the AL East year and year out while ignoring two significant streams of talent acquisition.

That's an excellent post. DD is confident staying pat will be okay. That's okay, but he better be right.

[El Gordo]

I just don't see any objective evidence that this is the case. As far as we know the Orioles have never made a truly competitive offer to a player who ended up with a $100M+ contract. And teams have been giving out $100M contracts for more than a decade.

I think the O's would have been in on the Pujols or Fielder negotiations in the same way they were in on Teixeira: a semi-reasonable offer that was really never going to get the contract signed except in very unusual, team-friendly circumstances.

I'd be willing to bet the O's were willing to offer Fielder the 6/140 they would have offered Teix. "It sounds like the Dodgers were the runner up in the Prince Fielder bidding, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. The Orioles appear to have come in third behind Los Angeles and Detroit. Heyman reported in January that the Dodgers offered Fielder a seven-year deal worth over $160MM." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/prince_fielder/

[ricowiz]

I know whether it helped or hurt them. I think you probably do too.

Well, Rowand hurt them, I think Zito helped them.

Edit: Actually Rowand put up a .700+ OPS for two seasons while playing a premium position....so I dont think either player hurt them.

[Stotle]

Right, and the Orioles sign their own as well:

Roberts ( a bust but still got $40 million)

Kakes

Jones

Hardy (trade and signed a 3 year extension)

I guess my point is I'd rather develop our own and sign our own to large extensions then to sign premiere free agents who are typically being paid for past performance and not living up to the current contract they sign.

The Giants signed Zito to a very expensive deal that didn't work. With that massive contract on the books, they still gave over $20 MM per year to Lincy and Cain, and will likely be giving Posey a pretty expensive deal (not sure it reaches nine figures, but it could in theory considering he's due to make well over $10 MM next year in arb). The Giants have increased their payroll to over $130 MM (up from around $80 MM in 2009). The Lincy/Cain deals aren't team friendly "lock 'em up" deals. They are getting paid market value.

Baltimore gave out a market (or slightly over market) contract to Roberts, and it didn't workout. Markakis and Jones are indeed chunky deals on the whole, w/Markakis expensive next year and Jones around 2015. Jones was a decent-sized financial investment, for sure. The real question will be, if and when Baltimore has a core of homegrown talent on par with Posey/Lincy/Cain, will we see some $50-65 MM tied up in three players, even if that means raising payroll overall?

[Dipper9]

Would you honestly be upset if the Orioles made the playoffs the next 2-3 years and then had a few years down afterwards? Can you imagine what three years straight of playoff caliber baseball from this team would do to fan interest?

Part of my fun as a fan is watching MY team come together and have winning seasons. I know that some of these guys wouldn't make the 25 man roster on the really great teams, but damnit, when a season happens like last year, I feel like I am a part of it. I know you have more information than the rest of us, and I guess I fit the mold of a fan conditioned to "accept" the new Orioles way of doing business. I also know we can probably afford a Hamilton even if he falls off the wagon and does not earn his salary. But it still doesn't mean I have to want that for my team. The bottom line is winning, and I'd be lying if I said otherwise, but if I wanted the Orioles to sign all this premium talent and be a group of mercenaries, then damnit, I'd be rooting for the one thing I hate more than any other in all of sports...I'd be rooting for the Baltimore "Yankees." Well screw that man. I guess I'm just that damn stupid and naive and "conditioned" but that ain't why I am an Orioles fan, and I'll be damned if that's what I want the Orioles to become.

[El Gordo]

Would you honestly be upset if the Orioles made the playoffs the next 2-3 years and then had a few years down afterwards? Can you imagine what three years straight of playoff caliber baseball from this team would do to fan interest?

Of course not, but signing Hamilton would not be the difference maker.The SP would. And Hamilton could proove to be a big distraction and clubhouse cancer. I would have been happier if we had been able to trade for Gordon or Butler. I think we have a team that will contend the next 2-3 years as is.

[LookinUp]

I think Tony's bottom line is correct. Angelos is the problem on spending and DD is just operating within those constraints.

With that said, has anyone looked at our future payroll obligations after this year? Are there any projections with respect to those versus what many other teams have obligated in future years?

I ask because of what has happened to the Phillies and the Giants. Both have tied a ton of money up into their own young talent through arbitration and/or extensions. I guess I'm openly wondering if there's a difference in DD's eyes between his ability to sign a guy for $10 million this year versus signing a guy for $10 million over the next 6 years. He may have payroll flexibility now, but the constraints placed on him by Angelos could be eaten up by guys we already have in-house.

Just a theory.

[Dipper9]

The Giants signed Zito to a very expensive deal that didn't work. With that massive contract on the books, they still gave over $20 MM per year to Lincy and Cain, and will likely be giving Posey a pretty expensive deal (not sure it reaches nine figures, but it could in theory considering he's due to make well over $10 MM next year in arb). The Giants have increased their payroll to over $130 MM (up from around $80 MM in 2009). The Lincy/Cain deals aren't team friendly "lock 'em up" deals. They are getting paid market value.

Baltimore gave out a market (or slightly over market) contract to Roberts, and it didn't workout. Markakis and Jones are indeed chunky deals on the whole, w/Markakis expensive next year and Jones around 2015. Jones was a decent-sized financial investment, for sure. The real question will be, if and when Baltimore has a core of homegrown talent on par with Posey/Lincy/Cain, will we see some $50-65 MM tied up in three players, even if that means raising payroll overall?

Does Wieters/Bundy/Machado count in that category?