TT: The Orioles projected payroll is 4th in the AL East

[luismatos4prez]

According to Baseball Reference.com, the Orioles projected payroll is $88.4 million for this upcoming season

Baseball Reference is off by a bit.

- They're contract figures are a bit inexact, which doesn't have a huge effect but there are other places to get more precise numbers if you want. Total effect probably is probably just under a million.

- They don't include Jair Jurrjens' guaranteed money, since his contract isn't official yet

- They don't include Dylan Bundy's contract this year. He isn't just a regular pre-arb, he's earning 1.245 M

My calculator says about 92 M.

[Tony-OH]

I hear ya. And I was right there every year on the "why didn't we sign Tex" and "why didn't we sign (player x)" bandwagon. EVERY year! But looking back over the last ten years, how many of those guys that the Hangout discussed at length for 6 months every offseason have been worth anywhere near the money they received? And better yet, how many of those high priced "premiere" free agents were holding a World Series trophy at the end of the season?

To my knowledge, without looking into it too much, The Giants (winners of 2 of the last 3 WS) have not signed a single "premiere" free agent....and this playing in the Dodgers division.

Anything can happen if you make the playoffs and sure enough, teams like the Yankees have come up short more time than not (thankfully) despite their huge payroll full of high priced free agents. Saying that, they are in the playoffs every single year! Over 162 game schedule, that talent will end winning enough games to get you into the dance while teams like the Orioles will need record setting one-run game records in order to sneak into the playoffs. I realize that some people are still high off of last season and now they think Duquette has found the miracle recipe to compete in the AL East without addign premium talent through trades of free agency. Perhaps he has and I'll be happy if he has, but the reality is we're probably going to end up in 3rd or 4th place this year and if some things go bad, we could back to a losing record.

I'm not blaming Duquette because I think he's doing a lot of little things that should keep this team fairly competitive, but I'd be lying to you if I objectively could look at the situation and say the Orioles will be contenders this year in the AL East. Could they, absolutely! They proved that last year. I'm not sure without living in the world that no one regresses or gets hurt and everyone either repeats or improves that you can objectively look at this team and say it will be a playoff contender once again.

[hoosiers]

A few thoughts:

I am not a big fan of speaking in absolutes (the Os never do this ... or .... our FO won't spend for that).

Strong organizations that repeatedly field competitive teams do so because of a strong commitment to the farm system (Tampa, Atlanta) or the major league payroll (NYY) or both (Texas, Anaheim, Boston). Any hope of future, sustained competitive teams from Baltimore can only happen with a strong farm system. DD has been laser-focused on improving our international scouting (Ferreira), our player development (Peterson and many other coaches), keeping our existing minor league talent and our draft picks (none lost or traded). This is highly encouraging. If neither Bundy or Gausman graduate from their prospect status, it is not difficult to envision the Os a borderline top 10 team with the supplemental draft pick, with the emergence of one or two international signees and strong development from Hader.

Our big league squad is good enough to win again. There is sufficient upside, return to decency and/or expected improvement from a number of players on our roster to be competitive. Period. That's plenty good enough for me given the focus on the farm system. Besides, as mentioned above, a large number of high $ free agents have proven to be poor investments.

DD is trying to build a team that will compete for many years and that is in the best long term interests of the franchise and I think that is great.

[Dipper9]

Anything can happen if you make the playoffs and sure enough, teams like the Yankees have come up short more time than not (thankfully) despite their huge payroll full of high priced free agents. Saying that, they are in the playoffs every single year! Over 162 game schedule, that talent will end winning enough games to get you into the dance while teams like the Orioles will need record setting one-run game records in order to sneak into the playoffs. I realize that some people are still high off of last season and now they think Duquette has found the miracle recipe to compete in the AL East without addign premium talent through trades of free agency. Perhaps he has and I'll be happy if he has, but the reality is we're probably going to end up in 3rd or 4th place this year and if some things go bad, we could back to a losing record.

I'm not blaming Duquette because I think he's doing a lot of little things that should keep this team fairly competitive, but I'd be lying to you if I objectively could look at the situation and say the Orioles will be contenders this year in the AL East. Could they, absolutely! They proved that last year. I'm not sure without living in the world that no one regresses or gets hurt and everyone either repeats or improves that you can objectively look at this team and say it will be a playoff contender once again.

I agree with everything here. But I'll also add making the playoffs in baseball is hard. Even with premium talent, the Angels were on the outside looking in. Tampa won 90 games and came in 3rd place. Is that a bad season? Should they be disappointed because their management didn't spend money on premium free agents? If the Orioles win 85-90 games and don't make the playoffs, I won't be disappointed, and I won't think its a step backwards. Now, if the pitching poops the bed and our offense stinks up the joint, then we can look back and maybe say the Orioles should have done more. But its a two edged sword. IF the Orioles stink and miss the playoffs, that would beg the question...would Hamilton have made any difference if the young pitching steps back? Probably not. Its all about pitching and defense, and us having a BAD year in 2013 does not depend on Hamiton and Greinke. It depends on the guys already here. Now, if we win 90 and miss the playoffs by 3 games like Tampa did, then and only then can we say Hamilton and Greinke would have made the difference. But even saying that, I wouldn't be disappointed.

[ricowiz]

To my knowledge, without looking into it too much, The Giants (winners of 2 of the last 3 WS) have not signed a single "premiere" free agent....and this playing in the Dodgers division.

Well, Barry Zito at the time was a premier free agent. Aaron Rowand also signed a big contract for their first WS run....I wouldnt consider him premium but it was a big contract.

[clapdiddy]

A few thoughts:

I am not a big fan of speaking in absolutes (the Os never do this ... or .... our FO won't spend for that).

Strong organizations that repeatedly field competitive teams do so because of a strong commitment to the farm system (Tampa, Atlanta) or the major league payroll (NYY) or both (Texas, Anaheim, Boston). Any hope of future, sustained competitive teams from Baltimore can only happen with a strong farm system. DD has been laser-focused on improving our international scouting (Ferreira), our player development (Peterson and many other coaches), keeping our existing minor league talent and our draft picks (none lost or traded). This is highly encouraging. If neither Bundy or Gausman graduate from their prospect status, it is not difficult to envision the Os a borderline top 10 team with the supplemental draft pick, with the emergence of one or two international signees and strong development from Hader.

Our big league squad is good enough to win again. There is sufficient upside, return to decency and/or expected improvement from a number of players on our roster to be competitive. Period. That's plenty good enough for me given the focus on the farm system. Besides, as mentioned above, a large number of high $ free agents have proven to be poor investments.

DD is trying to build a team that will compete for many years and that is in the best long term interests of the franchise and I think that is great.

I think this hits the nail on the head.

I could see us being a team that dives into the free agent pool, but it's not going to be for superstars. I just can't see the sense in us having a 25M/season player. I'd rather invest that money in a couple of very good players than one excellent player.

[Dipper9]

Well, Barry Zito at the time was a premier free agent. Aaron Rowand also signed a big contract for their first WS run....I wouldnt consider him premium but it was a big contract.

Barry Zito was signed by the Giants in 2007....4 seasons before they won.

[MurphDogg]

Well, Barry Zito at the time was a premier free agent. Aaron Rowand also signed a big contract for their first WS run....I wouldnt consider him premium but it was a big contract.

Does that help or hurt the point that Dipper is making? Was it Zito's 100+ million dollar contract that was already an albatross by the time they won that pushed them over the top? Was it Rowand's sub-1 WAR?

[Tony-OH]

A few thoughts:

I am not a big fan of speaking in absolutes (the Os never do this ... or .... our FO won't spend for that).

Strong organizations that repeatedly field competitive teams do so because of a strong commitment to the farm system (Tampa, Atlanta) or the major league payroll (NYY) or both (Texas, Anaheim, Boston). Any hope of future, sustained competitive teams from Baltimore can only happen with a strong farm system. DD has been laser-focused on improving our international scouting (Ferreira), our player development (Peterson and many other coaches), keeping our existing minor league talent and our draft picks (none lost or traded). This is highly encouraging. If neither Bundy or Gausman graduate from their prospect status, it is not difficult to envision the Os a borderline top 10 team with the supplemental draft pick, with the emergence of one or two international signees and strong development from Hader.

Our big league squad is good enough to win again. There is sufficient upside, return to decency and/or expected improvement from a number of players on our roster to be competitive. Period. That's plenty good enough for me given the focus on the farm system. Besides, as mentioned above, a large number of high $ free agents have proven to be poor investments.

DD is trying to build a team that will compete for many years and that is in the best long term interests of the franchise and I think that is great.

No one thinks having a strong drafting and development program is a bad thing. In fact, I completely agree about putting the resources into these areas. The Orioles must have a strong farm system in order to survive because we know they are never going to be a $200 million team. However, it's not an either or situation and prospects are nothing more than commodities. Some will blossom and become a big part of our future, but others should be used to acquire needed major league ready impact talent when needed. Now I'm not saying the Duquette should have moved Bundy or Machado this offseason. I think they both are going to be huge parts of the future here in Baltimore. However, what we can't do is be totally adverse to risk. We do not have anyone in our system that can put up Hamilton type numbers. We don't have any potential MOOs either. We have traditionally not drafted and developed very many impact positional players over the year and yes, I do believe that's improving, but until I see a pipeline of talent, I don't think we should be ignoring other avenues of talents such as trades and free agency.

Obviously I would prefer that we develop our players instead of signing them, especially starting pitching, but at some point you have to buy or acquire some bats when you lineup cries out for one. My biggest concern is not that Duquette isn't capable of building a consistent winner, it's that his hands are tied by a budget that should be larger.

It's quite clear that Duquette is thinking he can contend in 2014-15 time frame but that 2013 is a transition year until our young pitching sorts itself out. I just hope he doesn't miss opportunities to move guys when their value is at their highest for bats that will helps us contend on an annual basis.

[Dipper9]

I think this hits the nail on the head.

I could see us being a team that dives into the free agent pool, but it's not going to be for superstars. I just can't see the sense in us having a 25M/season player. I'd rather invest that money in a couple of very good players than one excellent player.

The only real positions that we need a "premium" free agent is 1st and 2nd. Davis could put up great numbers, and regardless, there were no premium players at either of those positions. Hamilton in left would obviously be an upgrade over Nolan and Nate, but not at 22 million MORE per season then what they cost.

[waroriole]

No one thinks having a strong drafting and development program is a bad thing. In fact, I completely agree about putting the resources into these areas. The Orioles must have a strong farm system in order to survive because we know they are never going to be a $200 million team. However, it's not an either or situation and prospects are nothing more than commodities. Some will blossom and become a big part of our future, but others should be used to acquire needed major league ready impact talent when needed. Now I'm not saying the Duquette should have moved Bundy or Machado this offseason. I think they both are going to be huge parts of the future here in Baltimore. However, what we can't do is be totally adverse to risk. We do not have anyone in our system that can put up Hamilton type numbers. We don't have any potential MOOs either. We have traditionally not drafted and developed very many impact positional players over the year and yes, I do believe that's improving, but until I see a pipeline of talent, I don't think we should be ignoring other avenues of talents such as trades and free agency.

Obviously I would prefer that we develop our players instead of signing them, especially starting pitching, but at some point you have to buy or acquire some bats when you lineup cries out for one. My biggest concern is not that Duquette isn't capable of building a consistent winner, it's that his hands are tied by a budget that should be larger.

It's quite clear that Duquette is thinking he can contend in 2014-15 time frame but that 2013 is a transition year until our young pitching sorts itself out. I just hope he doesn't miss opportunities to move guys when their value is at their highest for bats that will helps us contend on an annual basis.

What moves do you think should have been made?

[atomic]

Also of note...we are 30+ million more than Tampa, who everyone pretty much agrees has built their team the right way. Just saying.

Difference between us and Tampa is that we have the money to sign our own players. So if we build like Tampa we are bound to have a better team.

[ricowiz]

Barry Zito was signed by the Giants in 2007....4 seasons before they won.

Right, but he was with them while they won and his contract did not kill them.

[Dipper9]

Difference between us and Tampa is that we have the money to sign our own players. So if we build like Tampa we are bound to have a better team.

Very true. But unfortunately we didn't draft like Tampa for a decade straight. Having the top pick every year sure helped them. Lets see what happens when they don't pick so high in the draft. I would think their system is starting to decline from what it was 5 years ago, but I don't know that as fact.

[ricowiz]

Does that help or hurt the point that Dipper is making? Was it Zito's 100+ million dollar contract that was already an albatross by the time they won that pushed them over the top? Was it Rowand's sub-1 WAR?

Who really knows if they helped or hurt....I guess my point is that those contracts did not kill them, they were still able to add talent through the draft, trades, whatever to get to the WS.