Ongoing lineup thread for 2013

[CA-ORIOLE]

The implication is that Buck is playing vet favoritism and ignoring the numbers. That seems a stretch to me. I seem to recall a lot of people questioning his choice of Casilla in the line up a while back vs Masterson. He hit a HR that night. What are Robert's matchups against Buehrle. The other options at Nick and Nate. How have they done against Buehrle?

OK, did you not see where I said maybe Buck likes Brob's splits against Buehrle? Or that maybe I'd like to see a little more before moving him up in the lineup? How is that getting bent out of shape or hating?

[Can_of_corn]

The implication is that Buck is playing vet favoritism and ignoring the numbers. That seems a stretch to me. I seem to recall a lot of people questioning his choice of Casilla in the line up a while back vs Masterson. He hit a HR that night. What are Robert's matchups against Buehrle. The other options at Nick and Nate. How have they done against Buehrle?

Roberts vs Buehrle .302 .318 .419

Casilla vs Buehrle .300 .400 .350

Reimold vs Buehrle .556 .556 1.111

Markakis vs Buehrle .419 .471 .710

[CA-ORIOLE]

I never said it was. But Roberts is clearly the single-most divisive topic on this board.

Huh? You said "I knew this would get people all bent out of shape".

It's devisive because some people think he's a below average defender and are questioning today's lineup?

[DrungoHazewood]

The implication is that Buck is playing vet favoritism and ignoring the numbers. That seems a stretch to me. I seem to recall a lot of people questioning his choice of Casilla in the line up a while back vs Masterson. He hit a HR that night. What are Robert's matchups against Buehrle. The other options at Nick and Nate. How have they done against Buehrle?

OK, did you not see where I said maybe Buck likes Brob's splits against Buehrle? Or that maybe I'd like to see a little more before moving him up in the lineup? How is that getting bent out of shape or hating?

I'm not sure which is worse, Buck sticking Roberts at leadoff because it's his position, or Buck putting any weight at all on individual batter vs. pitcher splits.

I prefer to accept the idea that the O's don't have a particularly good option for the #1 spot against lefties, lineup order really doesn't matter, so Buck is going with one of about 1000 nearly functionally identical lineups.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm not sure which is worse, Buck sticking Roberts at leadoff because it's his position, or Buck putting any weight at all on individual batter vs. pitcher splits.

I prefer to accept the idea that the O's don't have a particularly good option for the #1 spot against lefties, lineup order really doesn't matter, so Buck is going with one of about 1000 nearly functionally identical lineups.

Yeah, I don't know. Weaver used to do the same thing. I think you have to look beyond the stats a little bit on this. Even the outs may be hit hard. Some hitters just pick up certain pitchers better than others. In Buerhle's case he hasn't had dramatic L/R splits over his career either.

[Can_of_corn]

Appears to be a good call.

How the heck do you see that?

Casilla has a higher OPS and wOBA against Buehrle, with superior defense and he is sitting on the bench!

Reimold is 5 for 9 lifetime and is batting 9th!

How can you possibly distort reality to make the information I provided supportive of Bucks' move?

Now I don't put much weight in pitcher hitter matchups but if Buck does then those numbers are not telling him to bat Roberts leadoff.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm saying I never said "every comment about questioning something is getting bent out of shape or hating", that's all.

I'm saying when it comes to Brian Roberts, people seemingly either love him or hate him, like the guy has personally wronged people, and I'll never understand that.

Ok, just questioning Brob's position in today's lineup is getting bent out of shape. Got it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah, I don't know. Weaver used to do the same thing.

It worked for Earl because back then you couldn't even find L/R or home-road splits so using his index cards brought the advantages of platooning the right guys, and that trumped a few bad decisions based on SSS 6-for-13s against some guy.

[CA-ORIOLE]

It worked for Earl because back then you couldn't even find L/R or home-road splits so the advantages of platooning the right guys trumped a few bad decisions based on SSS 6-for-13s against some guy.

Right, but one thing Weaver did look at was the hit charts, not just the raw numbers. I think his wife kept the spray charts up for him.

[Can_of_corn]

Easy. Brian Roberts is a vastly superior hitter to Casilla. Their numbers are so close against Buehrle that I'll take Roberts over Casilla based on his higher percentage of quality ABs in general and what is certainly many more ABs vs. Buehrle than Casilla.

I mean we're talking .750 vs. .737 here. Give me the more accomplished hitter.

He was. If he is has yet to be determined.

That wasn't the point. The point is folks were using past history as a rational for batting Roberts leadoff. Past history shows that Casilla, who isn't playing, and Reimold, who is batting 9th both have more success then Roberts.

[CA-ORIOLE]

He was. If he is has yet to be determined.

That wasn't the point. The point is folks were using past history as a rational for batting Roberts leadoff. Past history shows that Casilla, who isn't playing, and Reimold, who is batting 9th both have more success then Roberts.

Whatever, I have no issue with today's lineup. It's different and interesting, but we're splitting hairs now.

[Can_of_corn]

How many ABs against Buehrle do they both have? If Roberts has significantly more, which I would suspect, than isn't it fair to say that his numbers carry more weight than Casilla's smaller sample size?

43 to 20.

Not sure how many at bats are needed before the supposed advantage from matchups presents itself.

Since Casilla is the superior runner and defender with the better matchup numbers I question the logic of Roberts starting over him.

[DrungoHazewood]

Past history shows that Casilla, who isn't playing, and Reimold, who is batting 9th both have more success then Roberts.

If you buy the very flimsy idea that those splits mean anything at all.

In all seriousness, any Oriole lineup vs. lefties with Jones, Davis, Markakis, Machado somewhere in the top five spots is going to be indistinguishable in the short term from any other. We're theoretically optimizing a lineup based on very fuzzy knowledge of players' current talents to try to squeeze out an extra five-hundreths of a run a game.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not sure how many at bats are needed before the supposed advantage from matchups presents itself.

At least hundreds. And by that point the players in question aren't the same as they were when they started.

[Can_of_corn]

The difference is so insignificant and so small a sample size that I know you know it doesn't really matter. Defensively, fair point. But at the same time, Casilla's the only real pinch runner on the team.

Why do I say Brian Roberts is divisive on this board.. because a difference of .013 OPS points has people wanting a guy with a career .249 BA starting over a healthy Brian Roberts who just yesterday hit a home run.

No. It is the fact that folks guess that matchups might be the justification for favoring Roberts and then when faced with a reality that is different refuse to admit it.

Look matchups don't matter much at all, neither do lineups. Maybe Roberts has a great game today.

There is just no rational reasoning that I have heard to explain why Roberts is starting over Casilla and batting leadoff.