Olney - Orioles Facing a Run of Tough Choices

[Can_of_corn]

It's pretty obvious they are not raising payroll to sign free agents. (DD on signing Beltran would require trading away our highly paid players)

Most of whatever money we have will be used for the arbitration process.

If all they do of substance this offseason is resign their own guys then we can look forward to dropping a few more games in the standings next year.

[srock]

Given the TV money in sports right now and projecting it to keep increasing, $100 million ain't what it used to be.

Deadspin listed the 2013 opening day payroles.

$100 million isn't a BIG payroll, its just about the median.

Carrying a $140 million payroll should not be a problem for:

• a mid market team
  
• who is winning
  
• has a wealthy owner
  
• has a region sports network
  

They key for the Orioles is to avoid contracts that keep them in this payroll for too long, when they may no longer be winning.

I HOPE the Orioles front office is of a similar mindset.

[MurphDogg]

Yea, well when describing the situation I think he should mention that the O's supported a payroll in the 90's last season and have at least 25 additional million coming in so any budget constraints are the product of ownership.

He is a reporter, I think adding content of that sort is appropriate to the article.

I guess so. It is clear though that the new tv money is not going to result in an immediate influx of cash into every team's payroll. Overall payroll is not going to increase by $750 million this season just because teams have an increased cash flow of $750 million. Nor should it. Just because you have an extra $25 million doesn't mean that the players on the open market are suddenly worth an additional $25 million (while the players already under contract or under team control are worth exactly the same as they were before the influx of cash). Over the course of several years you should see total payrolls rise by around $750 million to account for the increased tv money, but it needs to be done gradually so that the money is distributed to all players in a manner commensurate to their value and accrued service time.

[Can_of_corn]

Of course not.

However a team that made the playoffs in 2012 and had a winning record in 2013 in a division where three of the four opposing teams sport a higher payroll seems like a swell candidate to make use of that money.

[ExileAngelos]

Given the TV money in sports right now and projecting it to keep increasing, $100 million ain't what it used to be.

Deadspin listed the 2013 opening day payroles.

$100 million isn't a BIG payroll, its just about the median.

Carrying a $140 million payroll should not be a problem for:

• a mid market team
• who is winning
• has a wealthy owner
• has a region sports network

They key for the Orioles is to avoid contracts that keep them in this payroll for too long, when they may no longer be winning.

I HOPE the Orioles front office is of a similar mindset.

Nice post

[wildcard]

Boras is causing a lot of the problems for DD. Asking for an 8 year deal for Wieters is something that DD should be saying no to. You know Boras will ask for at least that for Davis. If these players want to push to the top of the market in salaries then they probably are not going to do it with the O's. The fans should get used to that idea.

The O's can probably re-sign last years team for 105M including Feldman. That should not be a problem for the O's. Its the long term commitments that cause the O's problems. So trading guys that don't fit financially is what we are likely to see. That doesn't mean what comes back in return is all prospects. Some of them may be major league players.

[srock]

And honestly, we don't even need it to be that high. Something in the $120-$125 million range would be more than enough.

Indeed.

Matt Garza!

I'll take an Omar Infante as well. Offseason done, payroll for 2014 around $125.

If Davis nor Wieters is extended, long term payroll is still very safe.

[weams]

Indeed.

Matt Garza!

I'll take an Omar Infante as well. Offseason done, payroll for 2014 around $125.

If Davis nor Wieters is extended, long term payroll is still very safe.

I always thought I was told that the Orioles could spend 100 million last season. I believe that the new television revenue will not be treated as just investable money. We should spend 10 million of it on players. 110 million would be enough for me.

[notyourbuddy]

I'm ready for BIG change.

Jim Johnson, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters - Out

Assortment of inexpensive alternatives - In

Might result in a down year for 2014, but its not like if we keep these guys its going to result in a 2014 World Series anyways. We simply do not have the starting pitching nor the fortitude to buy it. Plus, I see no future for any of these guys in this organization beyond 2014. Get what you can for them now and move on.

#pipedream

[Ven6]

I thought this article was accurate and reasonable.

The truth is, DD is building a team not just for this year. And his budget is never going to be as high as any of us (including him) want. So where and when he can bring in talent by moving his "expiring assets" is everything.

[pdiddy]

Indeed.

Matt Garza!

I'll take an Omar Infante as well. Offseason done, payroll for 2014 around $125.

If Davis nor Wieters is extended, long term payroll is still very safe.

Garza worries me a bit give the way last season ended and his cost (although no pick is nice).

If it were me, I'd throw the money at:

Cano - (Yanks are at 7/$160 and Jay Z wants 10/$310). Heyman's article a couple of weeks ago had an average at about 8-9 for 210. I'd do whatever times 25 or 26 for anything less than 10 years.

Arroyo - Can be had for 3/30-36. Clubhouse Guy ™, innings eater, mentor. Downside is HR rate. Or failing that resign Feldman.

New home for Schoop plus (Kakes, Matusz, etc.) for a young, controllable SP. Schoop has a ton of potential but theoretically you won't need a 2B for 8 years.

[bpilktree]

I know people like to say that we supported team last year at 93 million so no reason why we couldn't increase. Maybe they couldn't afford it really and were hoping to make the playoffs and a long run to get sales up and more season tickets sold. They did not make it so they have to use some of the 25 million already. Yes Pete should easily be able to pay it but maybe he gave a number and said this is what i want to make and we didn't make as much as we wanted so he is saying well i need the 10 million we thought we would make last year first.

[BradyBunch]

Here is my $.02.

O's problem is Boras and his ego.

Wieters is not a $14 million a year catcher for any team with his career stats. It's a fantasy land number that Boras typically throws out in Arb years to force teams to overpay. Now, 2 years from now, who knows. But O's should offer Wieters a 5-6 year deal worth $60-70 million.

Davis is gonna get big money. Question is do the O's offer a massive long term deal (6 or longer)? I would have no problem offering Davis a 6-8 year deal in the $100 million range and I don't think Davis would turn it down. It'll give him FA years in his mid 30s if signed this off-season.

Now, nobody kid themselves but Markakis is off the roster in 2015. That's $13 million (there is a $2 million buyout) out there starting 2015. So he's either traded or let go. He's not worth the money we are paying him.

O's rotation isn't that bad, it had a bad year. They have a pitcher that could be #1. Tillman, who if he builds on 2013 will be one of the best pitchers in the AL. He should have been a 20 game winner in 2013. So that's a bright spot most ignore and we have him until 2017. Then Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy who in two years could be solid #2 and #3 in the rotation or the O's can toss Johnson on the market and make Gausman the closer and that again would free up $10 million.

[Tx Oriole]

I'm ready for BIG change.

Jim Johnson, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters - Out

Assortment of inexpensive alternatives - In

Might result in a down year for 2014, but its not like if we keep these guys its going to result in a 2014 World Series anyways. We simply do not have the starting pitching nor the fortitude to buy it. Plus, I see no future for any of these guys in this organization beyond 2014. Get what you can for them now and move on.

#pipedream

That is pretty bad.

[Roll Tide]

I'm ready for BIG change.

Jim Johnson, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters - Out

Assortment of inexpensive alternatives - In

Might result in a down year for 2014, but its not like if we keep these guys its going to result in a 2014 World Series anyways. We simply do not have the starting pitching nor the fortitude to buy it. Plus, I see no future for any of these guys in this organization beyond 2014. Get what you can for them now and move on.

#pipedream

Might as well throw in Davis, Hardy, Chen, and Jones....heck if you're going to do it you might as well do it right.:eektf: