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Latest on Shin-Soo Choo: Expecting 7 years, between $126M and $153M. He will not be an Oriole.


skanar

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It's pretty patently obvious that the price of a FA win from this point forward is going to be at least 5 to 5.5 million a year, and I don't think it's a huge stretch to see 6 or 7 million a year in the very near future.

Choo was worth about 4-5 wins last season, depending on how terrible you think he plays center field. He is probably an average to slightly above average LF based on limited past defensive numbers, and since he'd be playing LF for us, he might gain a quarter to half a win by virtue of not being a terrible CF.

His projections have him at about 3.8-4.8 wins for next season, so lets just cut it down the middle and say a little over 4 wins. That performance will be worth over 20 million next season. We'll assume he maintains the same for his age 32 season, then starts dropping by about 0.5 wins a season after that.

31: 4 wins @ 5.5m/win: 22.5m

32: 4 wins @ 5.5m/win: 22.5m

33: 3.5 wins @ 6m/win: 21m

34: 3 wins @ 6m/win: 18m

35: 2.5 wins at 6.5m/win: 16.25m

36: 2 wins at 6.5m/win: 13m

37: 1.5 wins at 7m/win: 10.5m

Based on this back-of-napkin workthrough, he'd be worth about 125 million over 7 years assuming this aging curve. So Jason Werth's contract is basically a spot-on comp for Choo.

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I never thought he was signing for less than 5/$100 million and I never thought the Orioles would consider going there so this hardly upsets/shocks me.

What I wanted was a Nate McLouth/Rajai Davis LF/leadoff platoon, but I understand now that I was being selfish and greedy, and so I would like to take this opportunity to publicly apologize to the Orioles for putting my own desires ahead of the organization's best interests.

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Agent = Scott Boras.

That's all one really needs to know about Choo. He will go to the highest bidder and will not be afraid to hold back until late January to do so.

With a limited budget (imposed or otherwise), the O's need to follow the A's model where you create a roster strong from 1-25, not the "stars and scrubs" model. While I like Choo as an offensive component, you can't allocate 20% of your budget to 1 player and effectively fill the remaining 24 spots.

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If we are going to overpay on a FA, let it be Garza.

Starting pitching's the bigger issue for me. Then work a deal for a Logan Morrison or similar type figure, maybe a rental closer, and I still see us having a decent chance to compete next year.

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Baltimore Orioles

Chris Davis was the only Baltimore regular with an on-base percentage above .330 last season, so Choo (.423 OBP at leadoff last season) would be a welcome addition at leadoff. But Adam Jones, Baltimore's best player, is signed to a long-term deal for $85 million, so the Orioles would probably be hesitant to go much beyond that. The O's also face the prospect of Davis and fellow Boras client Matt Wieters hitting the free-agent market after the 2015 season. They might want to conserve their resources now to have any chance to bring back one or both of those players later.

Espn insider Crasnick

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Choo is IMO the best fit for the Os a top the lineup....his OBP is with a lot of runs with our pop. I'd overpay a bit for Choo. We should still have enough cash to get one more SP. DH might fall of the wish list though. I'd be content going into 14 with that.

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Choo is IMO the best fit for the Os a top the lineup....his OBP is with a lot of runs with our pop. I'd overpay a bit for Choo. We should still have enough cash to get one more SP. DH might fall of the wish list though. I'd be content going into 14 with that.

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If you accept the 100 M ceiling as fact then you can only afford Choo this winter, nothing else.
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Asking for the Ellsubry contract at the moment, wow:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/315/shin-soo-choo

I ask this honestly not knowing the answer: how many times has Choo been worth more than $20 million in a single season? I'm guessing it's somewhere between "none" and "twice," so what on Earth might possess a team to pay him that much per year now that he's on the wrong side of 30?

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If theres a player I would want the Os to overpay for this offseason its Choo. We are a power team, so having a guy with a .420+obp is even more valuable to a team like the orioles. Getting to doubles machine manny with a man on base almost half the time would be incredible for our lineup. Obp is our biggest problem and choo is the best in the league at it. Plus he has power...dude is worth it.

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