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Grade the off-season


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grade the off season  

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  1. 1. grade the off season



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Only by increasing the payroll by 20 percent over last season, and signing 2 of the top 20 free agents in a 30 team league, can the Orioles get a C.

Let me just say that I hate the Orioles let it percolate approach. I raise my grade from an F to a D ... I am glad they added a Good SP. I still think they need a LF, 2B, and a DH and other than scraps they haven't addressed them. Getting virtually no production from DH. if Lough hits .280-.290 I will be pleasantly surprised. I still won't be happy with the station to station approach. Lough Attempted only 7 steals in 300 abs which doesn't excite me as our new lead off hitter.

And other than the international good will what are they going to do with Yoon. He isn't a starter only 100 or so innings the last few seasons.

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Only by increasing the payroll by 20 percent over last season, and signing 2 of the top 20 free agents in a 30 team league, can the Orioles get a C.

If you want to look at it the Jim Hunter way, yes. You could also say their "approach" to the offseason would have caused them to punt on a very deep 2014 draft.

Also, if we sign Morales for around 10M per season, that puts payroll around 105M. That's not even close to a 20% increase. Maybe you meant 10%.

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If you want to look at it the Jim Hunter way, yes. You could also say their "approach" to the offseason would have caused them to punt on a very deep 2014 draft.

Also, if we sign Morales for around 10M per season, that puts payroll around 105M. That's not even close to a 20% increase. Maybe you meant 10%.

If you think signing Morales equals a 105M payroll you are dreaming. Last year's Opening Day payroll was $92.238 million per Cot's. That payroll included 30 players. A 20 percent increase on that number would be $110.68 million. Right now Cot's has the payroll at $79.9M for 16 players (This does not include Yoon or Jimenez). Those 16 players include Troy Patton, Steve Pearce, Francisco Peguero, and Dylan Bundy. Assuming that none of those three make the Opening Day roster, you are looking at a minimum of 29 players on the Opening Day payroll. Just so we are comparing apples to apples, I am going to assume for this exercise thay the number will actually be 30, either through Machado being on the DL to start the season or a player getting injured and replaced by a pre-arbitration player. This list does not include players in camp on minor league contracts. Adding in Yoon at $1.425 million (his 2014 salary plus signing bonus), Jimenez at $12 million and Morales at $10 million brings the total to $103.25 million and 19 players total.

Even if the 11 additional players were to all make $500k, the total would be $108.75. But they won't. Delmon Young is due to make $1 million if he makes the club, Aceves is due to make $1.2 million. If Aceves makes the club but Young doesn't (a likely scenario with Morales in the fold), that brings the total up to $109.45.

It is not realistic to expect the pre-arb players to make exactly the minimum. Last year the minimum was $490k. The only player that made $490k was TJ McFarland who had zero days of service time. The other 7 pre-arb players made between $493.5k and $516.5k. Since I don't expect any players with 0 days of service time to make the roster this year, I will assume that the 10 pre-arb players will again make an average of $15k over the minimum. The new minimum is $500k, so this step only adds $135k to the payroll bringing us to a total of $109.6. My instinct is that this number will actually be a bit higher because the 10 pre-arb players include Gonzalez, Machado, and Tillman who will probably receive more than token $10-15k over the minimum (Adam Jones received $65k more than the minimum in his last pre-arb year, Wieters $40k).

Regardless, that brings my final estimated payroll to $109.6 million if we were to sign Morales for $10 million. If they don't sign Morales, and Delmon Young takes his roster spot instead, my estimated 30-man payroll is $100.6 million.

$109.6 million would be an 18.8 percent increase over last season. If Morales signed for $11 million instead of $10 million, the payroll would hit my 20 percent estimate on the nose.

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