Orioles "Appear to be the Leading team of interest" to Get Samardzija

[skanar]

I admittedly haven't gone back through every page of this thread so I apologize if this has already been posted, but someone on MLB Trade Rumors' page just suggested that a deal of E. Rodriguez, M. Gonzalez, one of the two catching prospects (Sisco or Ohlman) and Christian Walker is a fair deal that could pry Samardzija from the Cubs.

If that's all it took, and we could keep Bundy, Gausman and Harvey, I would approve of that trade.

Miguel Gonzalez has a 3.70 ERA in the AL East in 328 innings, with 6.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, and is up for arbitration for the first time next season (3.5 years of team control). He's got 5.2 rWAR over parts of 3 seasons.

Jeff Samardzija has a 3.90 ERA in the NL central in 633 innings, with 8.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9, and is in his 2nd arb year (1.5 years of team control). He's got 5.9 rWAR over parts of 7 seasons.

And to make that swap "all it would take" is a top-100 pitcher, an upside catcher, and a AA 1B on a massive hot streak?

It would take a top-100 prospect FROM THE CUBS to make a Gonzalez-for-Samardzija swap fair, IMO. Samardzija has better peripherals, but is helped but facing 10% pitchers in the NL, which boosts his Ks. Gonzalez already has a better career ERA and is cheaper and under control for much longer.

[DrungoHazewood]

You are right, he has substantially changed his approach. Samardzija is intentionally pitching to more contact this year so that he can go deeper into games. His out pitch was primarily his split finger pitch, but he has stopped throwing it as much in favor of a two seam fastball which induces a lot of weak contact. That's why his K rate is down, it's not a matter of lost stuff, but of choosing to be more efficient so he can go deep into games.

That sounds plausible enough, but it rarely works that way. Strikeout pitchers don't really throw more pitches than groundball pitchers. Weak contact also means more foul balls and more balls in play turning into hits, which all leads to more pitches. The difference between Aaron Cook or Carlos Silva (4 K/9) and Steven Strasburg (nearly 11 K/9) is about one pitch per inning.

For Samardzija, he's throwing about the same number of pitches per start as last year, and going all of 1 out per game deeper than last year. That's all because his results have been better, not because he's suddenly been drinking deep from the fountain of pitch efficiency.

[DrungoHazewood]

Samardzija has better peripherals, but is helped but facing 10% pitchers in the NL, which boosts his Ks. Gonzalez already has a better career ERA and is cheaper and under control for much longer.

I don't think it's trivial to account for the fact that opposing pitchers have hit .105 against Samardzija, going 16-for-153 with six walks and 65 strikeouts. You have to remember that Oriole pitchers get no such advantage. Miguel Gonzalez has faced an opposing pitcher for 5 PAs of his career.

[MrOrange82]

Miguel Gonzalez has a 3.70 ERA in the AL East in 328 innings, with 6.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, and is up for arbitration for the first time next season (3.5 years of team control). He's got 5.2 rWAR over parts of 3 seasons.

Jeff Samardzija has a 3.90 ERA in the NL central in 633 innings, with 8.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9, and is in his 2nd arb year (1.5 years of team control). He's got 5.9 rWAR over parts of 7 seasons.

And to make that swap "all it would take" is a top-100 pitcher, an upside catcher, and a AA 1B on a massive hot streak?

It would take a top-100 prospect FROM THE CUBS to make a Gonzalez-for-Samardzija swap fair, IMO. Samardzija has better peripherals, but is helped but facing 10% pitchers in the NL, which boosts his Ks. Gonzalez already has a better career ERA and is cheaper and under control for much longer.

MGon has FIPs of 4.38, 4.45, and 4.61 over the last three years (counting this one). He's accumulated 3.3 fWAR in that span.

Samardzija's FIPs have been 3.55, 3.77, and 2.78 over the same period, and he's earned 7.6 fWAR in that span.

It's also useful to remember that Samardzija and MGon both became starters in 2012.

I'm not saying I like the idea of trading four players for Samardzija, but suggesting that the Cubs should add a player to acquire MGon alone is preposterous. He's not nearly as good as Samardzija, regardless of whether you consider Samardzija a #1 (or even #2) type pitcher.

[Creamsicle]

You are right, he has substantially changed his approach. Samardzija is intentionally pitching to more contact this year so that he can go deeper into games. His out pitch was primarily his split finger pitch, but he has stopped throwing it as much in favor of a two seam fastball which induces a lot of weak contact. That's why his K rate is down, it's not a matter of lost stuff, but of choosing to be more efficient so he can go deep into games.

I like the reasoning. Hope you're right.

[Creamsicle]

Since school his nickname has been Shark.

Do not like. If we get him I'll probably go with either "Marge" (Mrs. Simpson aviator?) or "Marcia" (Miss Brady).

Asterisk to say: he'd have to pitch *extremely* well for us to graduate to something more respectful-sounding. #DorothyHammel

[MrOrange82]

I don't think it's trivial to account for the fact that opposing pitchers have hit .105 against Samardzija, going 16-for-153 with six walks and 65 strikeouts. You have to remember that Oriole pitchers get no such advantage. Miguel Gonzalez has faced an opposing pitcher for 5 PAs of his career.

6.4% of the total number of batters he's faced (i.e., 153 out of 2,393) is pretty trivial.

[DrungoHazewood]

6.4% of the total number of batters he's faced (i.e., 153 out of 2,393) is pretty trivial.

I'm pretty sure most pitchers would love to have 2-3 at bats a game where they can retire the opponent almost all of the time with almost no effort.

Once you account for the 100+ point OPS disadvantage a bench player gets when pinch hitting, it's more like one of every nine NL PAs is facing an inferior batter.

Just removing the pitchers from Samardzija's line bumps his OPSvs up nearly 30 points.

[MrOrange82]

I'm pretty sure most pitchers would love to have 2-3 at bats a game where they can retire the opponent almost all of the time with almost no effort.

Once you account for the 100+ point OPS disadvantage a bench player gets when pinch hitting, it's more like one of every nine NL PAs is facing an inferior batter.

Just removing the pitchers from Samardzija's line bumps his OPSvs up nearly 30 points.

Maybe they would, but having a designated hitter in an opponent's lineup, IMO, doesn't account for the fact that 8th and 9th place hitters have OPS'ed .876 and .845, respectively, against MGon.

For whatever reason, the most damage done to MGon has come from leadoff hitters and players who, presumably, are the worst hitters in their lineups (8th and 9th). Yes, it's a disadvantage, but I don't think it's the game changer you're making it out to be.

[CA-ORIOLE]

MGon has FIPs of 4.38, 4.45, and 4.61 over the last three years (counting this one). He's accumulated 3.3 fWAR in that span.

Samardzija's FIPs have been 3.55, 3.77, and 2.78 over the same period, and he's earned 7.6 fWAR in that span.

It's also useful to remember that Samardzija and MGon both became starters in 2012.

I'm not saying I like the idea of trading four players for Samardzija, but suggesting that the Cubs should add a player to acquire MGon alone is preposterous. He's not nearly as good as Samardzija, regardless of whether you consider Samardzija a #1 (or even #2) type pitcher.

Yeah, suggesting Gonzo for Samardzija is pretty whacked imo. Let alone Gonzo+ for him. i guess even some of our more savvy guys are still locked into ERA. You're doing a great job Orange. Also, as far as I know, FIP is league/park adjusted which makes the case for MGon for Samardzija look even more ridiculous. That doesn't get into the pretty subjectively obvious difference in stuff and pitchability. Amazing to me we have a couple of very smart cookies rationalizing it.

[MrOrange82]

Yeah, suggesting Gonzo for Samardzija is pretty whacked imo. Let alone Gonzo+ for him. i guess even some of our more savvy guys are still locked into ERA. You're doing a great job Orange. Also, as far as I know, FIP is league/park adjusted which makes the case for MGon for Samardzija look even more ridiculous. That doesn't get into the pretty subjectively obvious difference in stuff and pitchability. Amazing to me we have a couple of very smart cookies rationalizing it.

Thanks, CA. I can understand numbers based arguments to "narrow the gap" between MGon and Samardzija, despite my opinion that there's a night/day difference between the two. But I definitely can't understand tilting those numbers to argue that MGon might actually be better than Samardzija. As you said, that's without even getting into what seem to be pretty obvious, subjective differences in "stuff."

[Il BuonO]

Yeah, suggesting Gonzo for Samardzija is pretty whacked imo. Let alone Gonzo+ for him. i guess even some of our more savvy guys are still locked into ERA. You're doing a great job Orange. Also, as far as I know, FIP is league/park adjusted which makes the case for MGon for Samardzija look even more ridiculous. That doesn't get into the pretty subjectively obvious difference in stuff and pitchability. Amazing to me we have a couple of very smart cookies rationalizing it.

FIP is league/park adjusted??? But ERA has "earned" right there in the first word. Case closed, rationalization complete.

[Redskins Rick]

at this point, I am kinda of tired with all the $%$$# about the deal, either do the deal or move on.

So much time and energy diverted to something that might not even happen.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah, suggesting Gonzo for Samardzija is pretty whacked imo. Let alone Gonzo+ for him. i guess even some of our more savvy guys are still locked into ERA. You're doing a great job Orange. Also, as far as I know, FIP is league/park adjusted which makes the case for MGon for Samardzija look even more ridiculous. That doesn't get into the pretty subjectively obvious difference in stuff and pitchability. Amazing to me we have a couple of very smart cookies rationalizing it.

While I'm not a huge fan of Samardzija, and I'm generally supportive of Gonzalez, Miguel is clearly not as good.

[MrOrange82]

at this point, I am kinda of tired with all the $%$$# about the deal, either do the deal or move on.

So much time and energy diverted to something that might not even happen.

...it's been, like, one day.